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反思反省国父训言,新加坡何去何从?


反思反省国父训言,新加坡何去何从?


千万不要低估国父的说话,真的是不听老人言,吃亏在眼前。内阁资政李光耀的谈话,一举一动,都能够把行动党的基本盘拉高。新加坡是他一手养大的,他比谁都清楚,选民的心理反应,只要轻轻的点一点,就能为大选翻盘。

他昨晚终于出声了。内阁资政李光耀提醒选民,新加坡能取得今天的成就,是因为他们在过去一届又一届的国会选举中,投选行动党的优秀人才组成政府。因此,他希望国人在这次大选中继续作出明智的决定。

简简单单的几句话,看似简单,里面却有着深深的含义。错投反对党候选人,以往光辉的日子将不再。因此,为了保证未来的繁荣,行动党还是最佳选择。


行动党操控基本盘

新加坡的选票分布大约可分为三类:泛白,非白和中间三个盘。由于长期的执政优势和拥有巨大的政府行政资源,支持行动党的泛白选票,介于45-65%。而非白选票则只有25-35%,中间选民介于10-20%

难怪李总理在选前,已经信心满满,66%的得票率这么高可能拿不到,但是低几个百分点却是有把握的。因此,行动党只要坐在那里,催一催票,把基本盘提高5个百分点,就赢得大选了。那么,在行动党内,能有这个本事的人,就非国父莫属了。

操盘运作下,出现几反对党基本盘

在行动党的操盘运作下,又把反对党分成几类。通过媒体,各种管道,依行动党的喜好,分成比较喜欢和不喜欢的反对党。一个最简单的例子就是,工人党和民主党这两个极端。工人党是可以被接受的反对党,对它又爱又恨,一旦出错,反而让工人党胜出,而民主党则是“捣蛋分子”。这么一来,行动党,工人党和民主党的基本盘就出现变数了。下面以一个简单的列表来说明:

行动党操盘下,工人党和民主党的基本盘

工人党
民主党
泛白 (行动党基本盘)
45%
65%
非白 (反对党基本盘)
35%
25%
中间
20%
10%

很明显的,民主党处于不利地位。当然,候选人的素质也会影响这个基本盘。但是,对民主党来说,影响不大,即使有优秀的候选人,在主流媒体抹黑下,民主党的优秀候选人基本盘还是很低。可能上升12%。但是,工人党的优秀侯选人,却能把基本盘提高5-10%

这么一来,工人党只要获得中间选民的大力支持,就有机会以微差获胜。而民主党,即使获得全部中间选民支持,还是无法
胜出,一定要获得泛白的行动党支持者挺身相助,才能有机会成功中选。这几乎是一个不可能的任务。

因此,中间选民要反思,泛白选民要反省,这样的操盘政治是不是我们要的。我们要让这样的局面继续下去吗?还是继续听老人言,吃亏在将来?李资政不说了吗?即使躺在棺材里,如果新加坡有难,他还是会从棺材里爬出来,引导新加坡。

中间选民要反思,有无制衡的的必要性?

中间选民可以协助支持工人党侯选人进入国会。他们大多数具有理性的思考能力。不一定是年轻选民,也包括有家庭,有孩子,事业有成,认为国会里需要反对党来制衡执政党。但是,他们会更重视候选人的素质。因此,不是每一个或每一组反对党候选人,他们都会支持的。

水平低,素质差的反对党候选人是不可能获得中间选民的支持的。因此,这么一来,就剩下几组所谓的反对党A队了。上面说了,民主党即使是A队,基本盘也比工人党低,况且泛白选民在行动党的操盘下,根本不会考虑民主党,反而是,对工人党的印象比较好,或许,基于一些理由,如接受制衡的说法,改投工人党一票。

这种不健康的选举操盘运作,是新加坡的现实。只要行动党继续在朝,控制着国家资源,主流媒体,短期内这种局面是不会被改变的。什么反风,茉莉花革命,大海啸,不会一下子改变新加坡政治局势的大趋势。最乐观的看法是,反对党能够赢得一,两个集选区,这已经是很大的突破了。

泛白选民要反省,现在的生活能永续下去吗?

除非,泛白选民能够自我反省,新加坡将来何去何从,现在的生活能够永远保持下去吗?行动党的所谓优秀人才,真的真心为民服务吗?从本届大选的候选人名单看来,反对党的确出现了一些比行动党更加优秀的人才。泛白选民一直被行动党拉着鼻子走,不分侯选人的优劣,只投闪电,是否是明智之举。

泛白选民中还包括大部分政治冷感的人。其中也包括年轻人。新媒体给了反对党一个平台,但是,不是每个年轻人都会上网了解反对党的消息。在新加坡特殊的教育制度下,学生们对政治的关心,非常的低。成年人则受到主流媒体的影响,只知道行动党的好,反对党的坏。好多泛白选民能够接受非选区议员制度,接受一党独大,接受媒体的继续垄断。

泛白选民也不考虑反对党候选人的素质,一概把他们打入冷宫,都是对国家不利的反对派人士。他们不分无间道因素,不分媒体抹黑,全都相信行动党所说的就是治国救国的大道理。

这样的一个背景下,民主党的胜选的机会应是接近零。其他反对党的胜选机会也高不到那里去。

国父训言的确能拉高行动党基本盘

作为一个指标性人物,李资政的话还是会左右选情的,尤其是在泛白选民中。因此,在接下的几天,尤其是提名日过后,尤其是行动党选情告急时,国父的三言两语,呼唤,泛白选民和中间选民。他们很容易又被照会,记得从前总总,将来如何,威胁,恐吓,引诱,50, 60年来的招数,一一使出,这不是反对党能够招架的了的。

难道我们就这样看着反对党败选吗?新加坡何去何从,我们要反思,要反省,没有反对党的新加坡是不是更加美好?没有反对党的新加坡,行动党是否能确保自我更新,做得更好?

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