EBRC objectives: Stop “Out of Aljunied”, Stop SDP Breakthrough and “Negative-Asset” Ministers.

First of all, we have to congratulate the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee for creating more competitions, especially, multi-cornered competitions in the East.

When making changes, EBRC aims to achieve 3 goals:

1. To prevent “Out of Aljunied” for Workers’ Party.  This is the most important objective.
2. To prevent Singapore Democratic Party making any breakthrough in the North and Central.  
3. To look for a solution to retire “negative-asset” ministers or reduce PAP damages.

From the reported claims from different political parties, we will expect multi-cornered contests not only in single constituencies but also in group representative constituencies.

The PAP hopes to have a repeat of 2011 Presidential Election. Then Tony Tan won the Presidency when he got only 35% of the votes, a narrow win.However, a win is still a win. He did in even in the very last minute, after recounts of votes.   

How to achieve multi-cornered contests?

1. By inserting a single constituency into a GRC.

By moving Joo Chiat and Whampoa into Marine Parade and Jalan Besar GRCs respectively, it will invite competitions from WP and NSP. As SingFirst also expresses interest in Marine Parade, it is possible there is a 4-corner contest there.  

2. By maintaining a GRC

Tampines and Pasir-Punggol have seen visits by several parties. Tampines may have 4-corner fight as NSP, WP and SingFirst have all showed interest. SDA has declared their interest in Pasir-Punggol GRC so do WP.

Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC is basically no change except adding 3 polling districts. SPP and DDP have made their claims here.  

3. By re-arranging a GRC

Changes in Tanjong Pagar GRC and the dismantling of Moulmein-Kallang GRC will also invite different claims by different parties. SDP and SingFirst and even Reform Party have expressed in this GRC.  

4. By creating single constituencies

The re-creation of Fengshan, MacPherson and Bukit Batok single constituencies will certainly invite interest from different parties.

There is no change in all WP-held constituencies.  However, multi-cornered contests are expected outside Aljunied. The PAP can’t do very much in Aljunied.  However, it is important to prevent WP “Out of Aljunied”. EBRC’s review create many opportunities for political competitions near and around Aljunied.  

Another not so obvious motive of EBRC is to prevent the outreach of SDP and to prevent a SDP’s breakthrough in parliament.  This is done through the breaking up a GRC to reduce SDP outreach.  In GE2011, Sembawang and Holland-Bukit Merah GRCs are next to each other. The link is now broken by the creation of  Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC. Can SDP existing resources take on these 3 GRCs plus Tanjong Pagar GRC?

By inserting some polling districts from Nee Soon GRC to Sembawang GRC and withdrawing some from Sembawang to form the new Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC, SDP will need to refocus their efforts here.  With limited resources, can SDP make a breakthrough this time?

SDP is calling for volunteers to increase their outreach.

If we look at the map of Singapore, from Sembawang to Tanjong Pagar, it is in the Centre, dividing the East and the West of Singapore. Could it be the second major battle field after the East?

EBRC likes to play magic all the time.  Some constituencies disappeared in the past but re-emerge this time. Some breaks into four, like Moulmein-Kallang GRC.  The PAP has several “negative-asset” ministers and how can they get rid of them?  They may have to do it before the election and not after the election, like GE2011 when we saw the retirement of Wong Kan Seng, Mah Bow Tan, Goh Chok Tong and even LKY.

Lui Tuck Yew is one of them. With the disappearance of Moulmein-Kallang, Liu can retire earlier. Just look at his reaction and compared it with Dr. Yaacob Ibrahim, one will see the difference. Yaacob welcomes (back) the creation of Jalan Besar GRC.  There are some more “negative-asset” ministers that you can easily figure out. Besides ministers, there are also “negative-asset” MPs, Lee Bee Wah, Tin Pin Ling (not likely to be fielded in MacPherson due to delivery)….Altogether there are about 25% of current PAP MPs will go on retirement.

2 questions to ask

1. Is the review benefiting Singaporeans or the PAP?

It is an open secret that integer optimization can be used  for gerrymandering#. By rearranging the polling districts,  one party can benefit from this optimization exercise.   While in the USA, both Republicans and Democrats are  happily engaging in this exercise. They do it openly with  open voting statistics available online.   Here in Singapore, only the PAP is doing it. And it is doing  in it a monopoly way.  How can they claim this is good  for Singapore? Here are some background information on gerrymandering. # Gerrymandering Politics Out of the Redistricting Process:  Toward a Planning Revolution in Redrawing Local Legislative Boundaries http://escholarship.org/uc/item/2x00p9zc#page-1 # Evaluation and Optimization of Electoral Systems https://books.google.com.sg/books?hl=en&lr=&id=A1tNCQg2QKEC&oi=fnd&pg=PR3&dq=integer+optimization+ and+gerrymandering&ots=JwYhhjU5na&sig=_TTEIeGBuyy6oJooxO-2vi7vZwk#v=onepage&q=integer%20optimization%20and%20 gerrymandering&f=false # Districting and Gerrymandering http://www.illc.uva.nl/COST-IC1205/documents/Caen-2014-Slides/Scozarri.pdf

2. Can the son solve his father’s unsolved problems in the coming election?

Economy, Population, and Identity are the three key challenges for Singapore.  PM Lee pointed out these challenges for SG100. These are,in fact, the SG50 problems for which his father, the first prime minister of Singapore, found no solutions.. In the coming general election, what can PM Lee offer?  Perhaps, he is offering his new wine in the same old bottle. First, voters must vote in the new wine of fourth generation PAP leaders. And then, Singaporeans should trust their leadership. They then use the same monopoly powers as before to control the press, the population, the economy and the identity. These are the promises the PAP is offering to Singapore voters. Think twice before you give them your votes.

A well planned review still can’t run away from competition. It is time for change!

EBRC is making use of supercomputer with integer optimization programming to review the boundaries. The new electoral map is yet another masterpiece of distorted democracy in Singapore.

It is to the advantage of the PAP even the PAP tries to downplay it.  But they can’t run away from competitions. The review creates more opportunities for multi-cornered competitions in both single and group representative constituencies.

The PAP wants to create many 4-Tan competitions like the Presidential Election 2011. But the outcome may be like the Punggol East by-election.

Which direction will it go in GE2015?

Is a “Scotland”  in the making in

the East of Singapore?

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bc/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015_(Scotland).svg/691px-United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015_(Scotland).svg.png