Sunday, 25 January 2015

新加坡变天后,将出现“汉承秦制”。


变天后的新加坡,您怕吗?行动党当然希望您害怕,并且希望您因为害怕而再次投选闪电。这是总理在接受华文报专访时,希望带出的信息。他说:“在新加坡,大家以为不会变天,放心,自由投票,我看这是一个很危险的考虑。”

为什么危险?行动党失去政权,新加坡就很危险。这是总理的一厢情愿,当民情不在行动党这边时,再危险,选民也要改变,不是恐吓,不是暂时利诱,就能挽回失去的民心。

事实上,我们应该乐观的看待变天。变天后的新加坡,将是一个迷你版的“ 汉承秦制”。政治上改变了,朝代换了。制度却留下,并且发扬光大。中国历史上,除了“汉承秦制”外,还有隋唐和明清,在政治上改朝换代,制度却加以完善,成熟。

变天后的新加坡,在制度上,尤其是短期内,不可能出现大变化。但是,在政治上却会更加人性化,人文化。行动党在制度看不到的盲点,已经出现,变天后,将会出现的更加频繁,新的国家领导者将会对此加以改善,带入公平,开放,透明等的新元素。

新加坡在1819年成为英国殖民地后,英国人就开始引进英国的文官制度,法律制度,这些国家机器,一直不断的改善。由于殖民地的身份,人权,平等,自由,开放,透明等,不是英国人在新加坡的重点。他们把这里当成殖民地,摇钱树,只看经济,在必要的时候,还创立英国没有的内安法,限制人身自由。当然,行动党接手后,变本加厉,连媒体,教育也加以控制,整个新加坡社会,经济,政治都受到行动党无形之手的牢牢控制,一直到今天。

制度不变指的是国家机器不变,公务员,经济,法律,外交等制度不变。就像汉朝把秦朝的制度(如郡县,公卿),唐朝把隋朝的制度(如科举,三省六部)延续下去,不做根本性改变。但是政治的内容却改变了。汉朝把政治改成法家和儒家并重,内儒外法。把暴政改为比较具有人性,刑法,处罚,劳役等都加以改善,尤其是汉初的无为之治。而唐朝,却加深了监督,所以出现魏征这样的人物。

历史学家评论秦国时,往往喜欢用‘不仁却有功’。秦始皇的暴政,的确是不仁,但是,统一中国,设立新的统一制度和多项大工程等,却为中国未来的发展带来有利条件。隋炀帝也是如此,暴政而不仁,但是大运河工程,却是有利中国的长期发展。

那么,行动党是不是也是‘不仁有功’呢?似乎是如此。行动党的不仁,已经到了老少都恨之的地步。老的医药,住房,生活有问题,无处解决。少的,看不到光明前途,女的甚至还被恐吓,有一天可能要到国外当女佣。

总理在访问中提到,他10年来的成绩在教育,遗憾是基础建设不够快。这正反映了他的‘不仁’思维。我们大家都知道秦始皇的‘焚书坑儒’,这被当成秦始皇的暴政之一。焚书坑儒当然和教育有关,那么和总理有什么关系?焚书坑儒就是限制人民的思维,限制人民的学习自由,限制人民的选择。过去的50,60年,在行动党的一党专政下,媒体管制下,教育分流控制下,这就和教育有关了。不用说,如果总理把他的成绩定在教育,那就是不仁的教育,这就是我们国家的创意出现问题的所在。

那他的遗憾,是不是也是暴政不仁呢?他说,希望基础建设更加快,在交通,住房方面赶上国人的要求。他似乎忘了,这和他的急功近利有关。急速的经济增长,急速的人口增加,急速的贫富失调,难道和他的基建遗憾无关吗?这是先后次序的问题,为了达到急功近利,行动党并没有把国人的利益放在最先,而是对有钱的国人把他们的利益放在中间,对没有钱的人,把它放在最后。这当然引起民怨。但是,他却把它说成遗憾,做得还不够快。如果,正如他所说的遗憾,建屋不够快,交通基建不够快,这会是什么结果。您想一想,如果正如他说的还要加快,那么,新加坡的贫富差距,将会距离更加的大,大到人民会提早起义。

因此,不论教育成绩,还是基建遗憾,最后的评论就是暴政不仁。亏他,亏行动党还说,自己是儒家治国。这个骗局如果继续下去,变天就会提早到来。这个骗局的结果,就是变天。

Sunday, 18 January 2015

Education Achievement, Infrastructure Regret And The Failure


The interview, celebrating 10-year of prime minister power, looks more like an invitation to a freak election. And the Huffington Post article by Minister Chan Chun Sing proves not only the quality of PAP leadership but also the likelihood of a freak election result.

Whether achievement in education (ITE, poly, every school a good school) or regret in slow infrastructure development (HDB, public transport),  all these are policy related. For a developed and mature society, as the PAP claims credit to make Singapore from third to first world, it has to involve soul searching and philosophical thinking.  Policy making is a total approach and interrelated.  

What kind of lifestyle do Singaporeans want?  The PAP model of education and infrastructure or alternative policies?  PM Lee has made his case too simple.  Whether achievement or regret, they are not standing alone. It is an accumulation of SG50. The past policies of the PAP government result to today’s achievement and regret.      

Why is PM lee so shy to mention our ‘one of the highest GNP per capita in the world’ as his achievement? Why does he not mention rich-poor gap and poverty as his regret? Is The Interview a prelude to general election? And so, he obviously and intentionally omit some important points that he wants voters to forget.

PM Lee uses the state machinery to create wealth for both local and foreigners. However, he fails to distribute it properly. Singapore has one of the highest GINI index in the world. Singaporeans are also less protected in healthcare, retirement and even education (university places).

Facing a better educated and English speaking voters, PM Lee has to admit that Singapore politics will change and it all depends on the voters. He wants to show his side of democracy, transparency and openness by giving a ‘frank interview’. He knows, at best, he can score 50% here when interviewed by the English mainstream media. He mentions about more single member constituencies and less or smaller group constituencies as he tries to meet the demand of voters.  He even shifts to middle ground to focus on the quality of candidates irregard of whether they are PAP or opposition candidates. For example, as one may suggest selecting a candidate between PAP’s Minister Chan or SDP’s Dr Chee.  

He has to show concern and worry to this group of voters: young, English speaking, middle income and better educated. He knows he does not score high in social media despite his experiencing in Facebook or Instagram.  This group appears to be the reason for a freak election when he speaks to the approved English media.

However, he is even more worry about traditional voters - the long-time supporters of the PAP.  They are confused when they read the news in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Why are people there not happy?  After so many years of hard work and contributions, life and income have not improved. Why?
  
The real cause of a freak election is the runaway of traditional support. SG50 celebration has just begun and the result of gaining back support may be too optimistic or far from target. In The Interview with Chinese MSM, these are the highlights:

$ PM Lee thanks the Chinese educated for their contribution.
李总理感谢受华文教育者对国家贡献

$ PM Lee discusses the change of mandate/
government. He warns voters it is free to vote the oppositions but will lead to change of the ‘sky/heaven’.  It is dangerous to do so.
接受华文媒体访问李总理谈变天
在新加坡,大家以为不会变天,放心,自由投票,我看这是一个很危险的考虑

$ PM Lee stresses the importance of relationship between the government and Chinese associations, grassroots, and communities. The PAP is actively engaged and Minister Chan is the first name he mentions for this traditional engagement.
李总理谈政府与团体的互动。

If the PAP can hold the traditional ground, the statement ‘Singaporeans want the PAP to govern Singapore’ may be valid. This, perhaps, gives Minister Chan the argument of ‘Dr Chee is a failure who lost 3 elections’.  The PAP is confidence that they can hold the Chinese and traditional grounds. And Minister Chan, without directly elected by the voters, is so confidence that his involvement with the Chinese community will bear fruit of loyalty votes.

Perhaps, Minister Chan is right. Perhaps, PM Lee’s Chinese interview can maintain or regain the loyalty. If so, freak election is not likely. If so, Dr Chee may lose the election four times.

In traditional Chinese thinking, failure is not to be  ashamed of. Many heroes are failures. From Xiang Yu (项羽), Gaun Yu(关羽), Yue Fei(岳飞) to Hong Xiu Quan (洪秀全), all of them have occupied a place in history. Their names are mentioned more often than the unknown emperors. Oh!Not to forget Deng Xiao Ping’s ‘three down and three up’.

If SDP can have a breakthrough in the traditional ground, then the freak election is possible.  In the past 20 years, SDP has been badly named by the government and the MSM. And Minister Chan is so happy that this bad name effect is still valid today. This makes him so confidence to name Dr Chee a failure.

Who is the failure in the next general election? PM Lee, Minister Chan, Dr Chee, the PAP or the oppositions. What do you think?   

#1
http://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/singapore/story20150116-435981

#2
http://www.wanbao.com.sg/multimedia/vodcast/story20150116-46188

Monday, 12 January 2015

新加坡的数据秘密-行动党知道,你不知道。


在大数据时代,数据的公开是必要的。政府要说服人民,要人民相信它的政策是对的,就有必要拿出有力的证据,数据来说服人民,说服反对党,驳倒反对党。而行动党的做法,却是背道而驰,不单不拿出数据,还要强词夺理,要人民相信,相信政府的一切。

最近,许通美在报上发表感言,希望贫困孩子能够获得协助,让他们完成学业,上课的时候,不要空着肚子。一位大学校长还告诉他,有高达60%的学生需要财政援助来完成学业#1。教育部当然不满意这样的说法。几天后,就反驳许通美,与此同时,把消息告诉许通美的两个相关人士也收回他们的消息。许通美还为此向教育部道歉,但是,仍然坚持贫困孩子的问题,需要解决。

除了许通美的60%外,我们就没有看到什么数据了。为何提供数据这么困难?明明教育部手上有资料,为何不拿出来,更加具体的反驳许通美。而许通美也没有再继续追问,要求教育部拿出数据来证明。同时,那两位报“假”消息的相关人士,不知为何改变主意,害得许通美吃了死猫。

教育部,许通美,两位相关人士,都不是我们社会上的普通人。他们可是我们社会的精英,更加不像是说话不算数的人。问题是明明有数据却又偏偏不拿出来。这就让人纳闷了?让人怀疑了?难道数据一公开,问题更加严重吗?这样草草了结,政府就好下场,对行动党的诚信怀疑也可以到此为此了吗?真的这么简单?难怪,新加坡50这么令行动党怀念,因为,过去的50年,行动党就是如此治国。

独立50年来,行动党的治国方针,就是政府想让你知道,就公开,或者选择性公开。不想让你知道的,就是机密,就不公开。因此,我们的国家有太多的机密,太多的不可公开的数据,搞到最后,就会出现上述许通美的似是而非的无头公案。这些事情已经屡见不鲜,但是,每发生一次,人民就会怀疑行动党政府一次,50年来,积累起来,就变成人民不相信政府,人民怀疑政府。

-人民怀疑储备金,公积金,投资回报的数据。

-人民怀疑我国的人口,外来人口的数据。

-人民怀疑外来人才,外国奖学金得奖者的数据。

-人民怀疑选区划分的数据。

-人民怀疑建屋局,医药津贴的数据。

-人民怀疑给总理,部长高薪金的政策。

总之,任何有可能需要公开数据的地方,人民就会要求数据公开。而行动党政府,在别无选择的情形下,就选择性的公开,这就更加加深人民的怀疑,人民怀疑数据的真伪 - 这些公开的数据,只不过是政府要人民知道的,那些不需要知道,政府就不公开,人民就不需要知道。

【人民没有选择公开资料,公开数据的权利,因为,每一次大选,选民已经给行动党这个权利了。】

【所以,在下一次大选,选民要把这个权利收回,数据公开是选民的权利,不是行动党的权利。】

这是行动党过去50年的做法。但是,在大数据时代,坦白公开数据对行动党,将会更加有利。我们看看陈笃生医院最近的例子就知道了。医院的菲律宾医务人员发表了对新加坡人不敬的言论,开始的时候,医院和医务人员还说有人侵入医务人员的网址,要求警方调查。不久,真相出来,医务人员自导自演,结果被医院开除。

如果,陈笃生医院和菲律宾医务人员,自我先行坦白公开,人民就不会有这么多怀疑,怀疑交给警方处理是要演出一套龙凤戏,就像许通美和那两位相关人士那样,现在让人怀疑在教育部压力下,收回言论。或者,让人怀疑,简直是在做戏,让人民以为,亲政府的人,也有正义感,会为新加坡人民发声。

行动党有时候还会狡辩,不是数据没有公开,而是人民没有细读内容。在盛港西的庙宇项目的事件中,该区行动党议员还说组屋买卖合同中,有一段细节,买家没有细看,因此,引起误会。这段细节说,这间佛教庙宇将会有附加服务,例如,骨灰瓮。

因此,下一次,行动党政府公布数据时,人民有必要细读内容。不要说政府没有公布资料,而要问自己有没有细读内容。你自己忽略了细节,不要怪政府,行动党没有错,错的是你自己。

资料,数据不公开是行动党的权利。选择性公开数据和资料,人民要小心细节,看不到细节,不要怪罪行动党,怪自己。这50年来,人民没有选择的权利,只有被动接受安排,给什么,就接受什么。

但是,在大数据时代,这个安排要反过来。人民有权知道,政府有责任公开数据。选择性公开和公布误导性资料,将会进一步加深行动党和人民的距离,加快行动党失去政权。行动党如果,一直不愿意公开数据,那选民就应该换一个政府来把数据公开了。


#1
http://www.straitstimes.com/news/opinion/invitation/story/three-wishes-the-new-year-20150103



Tuesday, 6 January 2015

Celebrating SG50, Celebrating the End of One-party Rule.


Celebrating SG50 is a closing chapter for Singapore politics and economy. It is the end of the one-party rule of the PAP and the beginning of the participation of alternative politics. All of us, whether supporting or opposing the PAP, will agree that the PAP will lose more parliamentary seats. PM Lee even warned that the PAP might lose power in the next election.

So, when we celebrate SG50, we are also celebrating the emergence of two-party or multiparty politics in Singapore. The celebration of the past, like SG50 and the memory of walkovers, GRCs, NCMPs, will unlikely to be the ‘history repeats itself’. To the PAP, the creation of SG50 is to dream of a ‘history repeats itself’.  However, this is not a realistic sweet dream. SG50 is a closing chapter for the PAP monopoly politics.  

It will be a new political arrangement, a new economic arrangement, perhaps, a new legal and social order.

Two-party or multiparty

Past election data shows the possibility of two-party system rather than a multi-party arrangement. The PAP popular votes will go down, to what level? 55%, 50% or even 45%. Even with 45%, the PAP may still remain in power with a simple majority. In a first-past-the-post system, like PE2011, the PAP can still win with more than 30% support in a multi-corner contest.

For an opposition party with a past record of 40% popular support, it is not an easy task to unseat the PAP. We may see one or two outliers with very strong opposition candidates and ground works.  If the outliers become a norm, and if that happens, it will be a freak election - the biggest worry of the PAP. Then, it will bring forward the multiparty politics in Singapore.

What will cause a freak election? It must be something very big and at a national level. For example, the reserve and CPF.  Suddenly, evident shows the reserve is gone and CPF Board has no money.  Exchange rate and property price can also lead to freak election. Euro crisis, financial crisis and big falling in real estate value had brought down governments.

Sustainable growth

When we celebrate SG50, we will also have to accept a slow growth economy. With 2-4% growth, it is possible some sectors may experience negative growth, some sectors may not be able to restructure and productivity growth will continue to be a problem.

The PAP calls it a sustainable growth. Whether sustainable growth or slower growth, Singapore will be very different from the SG50 era. PM Lee wants to project a prosperity future but fails to bring out solid and sustainable solutions. The PAP’s foundation is high growth, high inequality, and less social support. They have no solutions for low growth, equality and more social support. Alternative inputs and solutions are needed in these areas.

International Commercial Court

Singapore International Commercial Court is a new business venture.  Comparing this to casino business under SG50, we can’t say this is bad. However, this legal venture needs strong political and economic infrastructure.

Moving from one-party to two-party or multiparty politics will strengthen the tribunal business. An international court, whether commercial or criminal, needs the support of democratic system and open economy.  It has a higher chance of success if we go beyond the mindset of SG50.

Interestingly, Chief Justice also announced the setting up  
of a Centralised College for training and educating judges. In many ways, in the post SG50 era, judges will have to consider the new political and economic reality. Training and educating judges accepting the new reality should be part of the college programs.

Society at large

More social involvements, especially the young and social media, will be new reality. The PAP cannot solve all the problems in Singapore.  It is also difficult to hide the problems or issues like the past.  The harmony in the past will not be repeated. There is no more honeymoon for the PAP. Newly elected parliamentary representatives will have shorter learning curve. The planned and ordered PAP succession format, from minister of state to minister, will be a joke after SG50.

We will also see more social activities, from cat, dog, toilet, kindness, religion to red dot.  Singaporeans will demand more transparency and openness. Temple business, unlicensed trade fair, charity donations, $2 company will have hard time in the post SG50.

In 2015, we welcome SG50. In celebration of SG50, we turn the past impossible into reality. The end of the PAP’s monopoly means a new beginning for Singapore, even it is a challenging one.