Thursday, 25 June 2015

SG50: From Glory to Shame, Fear remains.


The social media is the new fear target of the PAP.  
http://wallpaperstube.com


50 years after independence, the People’s Action Party continues their fear tactics and wants to rule Singapore with their ‘know best’ mentality.  We suppose to celebrate our SG50 achievements, and yet we have turned our international glory into international shame as the Amos Yee shown.

It is a questionable case and the mishandling of the case has led to international shame that involved human rights, child rights and of course, the freedom of expression.  

As far as the fear factor works, the PAP is willing to be criticised for human rights record and press freedom.   

The PAP under PM Lee continues to believe fear is the only option to rule Singapore successfully. Besides using ‘know best’ reason to justify their fear strategy, the PAP also used another Chinese idiom (Ju An Si Wei), ‘Be prepared for danger in peacetime’ to institutionalised their actions.

They want Singaporeans to worry about CPF minimum sum, medical care, retirements, children’s education expenses, ageing, birth rate, jobs etc. They create all kinds of fear for such worries even though their mandate is to take care of citizens. Instead of care, the PAP gives Singaporeans fear.

But the fear created glory is under threat. Some glories have turned bad or shame. The HDB design and build programs have begun to receive negative comments. The unexpected SEA game closing ceremony cock-up is another one.  

Will the PAP change their fear tactic and strategy?  They still have the Internet Security Act with them.  This will be their last resort. Will they dare to use it again for political purpose?

They believe keeping a person away from the public is the best way to silence different views and expressions. It is the thing they refuse to change in the past and present. PM Lee seems determines to continue this institution.  However, unfortunately to the PAP, this is the critical thing that Singaporeans want to see the change.

Fear! Fear! Fear! everywhere.

When we go to the voting centres, we fear whether the vote is secret or not. Whether the PAP knows my voting preference. The right thing should be, instead of fear, we should worry about whether PAP policies will lead to social injustice or not. After 50 years of ‘free’ election, this unnecessary fear still remains. We should worry more about CPF, fear more about the reserve and government investment, and think more about alternative solutions. Why are we so fearful?

Now, the PAP is promoting a new fear. The oppositions can not run a town council. In addition to town management problems, the PAP government can also withhold funds for the town council.  After the fear of the failed lift and estate upgrading, estate cleaning, the PAP now shifts the fear strategy to town council management, accounting and auditing problems. They also create fear for small issue like illegal trade fair.     

If the fear continues and remains in our minds, how can we make the change?

After on the run for 35 years, Phey Yew Kok finally returns to Singapore and was charged in Courts. However, he pleaded not guilty to all six charges.

PM Lee posts this in his Facebook:

[We have maintained a clean and non-corrupt system in Singapore for half a century because we have zero tolerance for corruption. When we discover wrongdoing, we do not hesitate to act. We will not allow any cover up, even when it is awkward or embarrassing for the Government.]

Some are surprises of his return. Has this related to the fear factor, especially after the death of LKY?  We don’t know. Perhaps, yes. Perhaps, no. Anyway, Phey’s life will have a big change, totally difference from the past 35 years.

Will Phey tell the Courts why he has less fear and decides to surrender after such a long time?  Why does he decide to make a change at the age of 81?     

Thursday, 18 June 2015

欢乐时间不在新加坡,一旦国难发生,总理会不会留下来与人民同舟共济?


星期二的东南亚运动会闭幕典礼是SG50的重头戏,举国欢腾,唯独不见最高行政长官李显龙总理。官方的报道是,总理出国度假去了。总理也在面子书上,上载了几张在日本度假的欢乐照片。这是其中的一张。

https://scontent-sin1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xta1/v/t1.0-9/11401012_928377873891586_3930033169840902769_n.jpg?oh=12dc8070139837f26a59b2c89293eba0&oe=55F26EA5

这看起来好像是众乐乐不如独乐乐,举国欢庆20多年后才在新加坡举行的东南亚运动会。同志们如此努力,打造历来最好的东运会,志愿者如此用心展现历来最美的新加坡,带头大哥的总理却缺席闭幕典礼,这不只是让人失望,让人迷惑,甚至在外交礼仪上也显得怪怪的。

总理当然有衡量独乐乐和众乐乐的轻与重,在他的C++运算下,自然出现独乐乐的回报高于众乐乐,因此,放弃众乐乐,举家到日本去。把代总理的工作留给张志贤和林勋强。这个代总理的安排也引起网上非议,明明有两个副总理,为何要由一个部长来出任代总理。一个代总理的工作竟然分配给两个人。

总理的算盘里,为何出现独乐乐高于众乐乐,我们当然不知道。甚至部长们也可能不知道。这或许是总理有难言之隐,总理不可能把这个计算方法告诉国人和行动党党人,当然,更加不会告诉国会和反对党人。

但是,国人难道没有想一想,在最美好的时刻,没有行动党的第一把手和我们在一起,国人也照样过日子,东南亚运动会结束了,欢乐的庆典过了,日子照旧,生活一样,新加坡人可以有自己的众乐乐,而不需要李显龙的独乐乐,依然快乐。

深一层的想一想,总理在最欢乐的日子,没有和国人同在,这倒是无所谓。令人害怕的是,如果遇到艰难时刻,总理还会不会和国人同在,共赴国难,一起面对负面的众乐乐。到时,他会不会又拿出C++来计算一下,到底是独悲悲划算还是和国人一起众悲悲划算。这是总理的秘密,我们也无需把这个谜底打开,时间到了自然就知道了。

2011年大选,行动党高喊:风雨同舟,共创未来。


放弃众乐乐,总理这回的独乐乐,和2011年的行动党竞选宣言,似乎不同路。风雨同舟应该是建立在众乐乐的基础上。独乐乐的结果当然是不能和人民共创未来。

这真的很令人纳闷,到底总理和行动党的众乐乐和独乐乐标准在哪里?是不是,总理有一套标准,部长有一套标准,国人有一套标准,这样一来新加坡人如何‘Securing our future together’ 一起确保我们的将来?

远在日本的总理,在独乐乐之余,很可能根本没有想到,一向以效率高自居的新加坡管理、行政单位,竟然出现下面的场面。东南亚运动会闭幕典礼竟然出现众乐乐的反面,这美中不足,又要如何计算,如何补偿。



video.toggle.sg

Wednesday, 17 June 2015

Another Government Knows Best Initiative – Public Bus Contracting Model in Singapore

[PPP Day 17 June 2015]

Singapore public bus industry is moving into a new contracting model. This is a new Public Private Partnership sitting on an existing one.

Contracting model (CM) #1
Bus services in Singapore will be bundled into twelve bus packages, with about 300-500 buses each. For a start, the government will tender out three packages of bus services, starting from the second half of 2014 for the first package, for implementation from the second half of 2016. The contracts will last for five years, and can be extended by another two years with good performance.

The other nine bus packages, comprising the remaining 80% of existing buses, will continue to be operated by the incumbent operators (SBS Transit and SMRT). The government will negotiate with the incumbents to run the nine packages under the contracting model, for durations of about five years when their Bus Service Operating Licences (BSOL) expire on 31 August 2016. After these negotiated contracts expire, more bus services will be gradually tendered out.

Existing model – BSOL, BSEP
Under BSOL, the operators (both listed companies) are responsible for profit/loss with government financial incentives. Under the Bus Service Enhancement Programme (BSEP), the government partners public bus operators to significantly increase bus capacity and enhance bus service levels to benefit commuters. For example, the government is spending $1.1 billion to purchase 1000 buses for the operators.#2

The expanded BSEP will also provide more resources to double the number of new routes from 40 announced previously to 80. Bus crowdedness and waiting times will also be progressively improved, especially during peak periods. Bus commuters will enjoy a shorter waiting time and more space on board. Majority of the BSEP improvements will be implemented by end 2016. #3

Latest Development
As announced in May 2015, Tower Transit is the successful tenderer of the Bulim Bus Package, who will receive an estimated total fee of $556.0 million over five years. The 26 bus routes will be based out of the new Bulim Bus Depot, which is scheduled to be completed in 2015 and able to accommodate about 500 buses. #4

Comparison between CM and BSOL

Over YouTube presentation, the key difference is:




BSOL:

CM:

Under CM, the government is taking more risks. It is looking for a responsive managing agent and creates contract competition.#1

Public and Private Risks
Risk
CM
BSOL/BSEP
Government political risk
Yes
Yes
Government financial risk
More
Less
Private financial risk
No (fee base)
Yes(operations/fares)
Private performance risk
More demanding
Demanding
Government knows best
No citizen engagement
No citizen engagement
Government Infrastructure risk
More (government owns buses and infrastructure)
Less (private owns buses, plans routes)

The dark sides of CM
The government hopes to get the 'best practice' in the world to achieve quality bus service under CM. It now goes a step further to plan bus routes and even collecting fares. This is a 'government knows best' mentality. Even under BSOL, the government has already involved in everything. The two bus operators have strong link with the government even though they are public listed companies. BSOL is a semi-government involvement. CM is near to nationalization.

Another key weakness is citizen engagement. Singapore is known to have efficient government. Traditionally, policy making is top down and public feedback is always not the top priority. Whether CM or BSOL, it is a government lead PPP.

The infrastructure planning will continue to be in the hand of government. The only competition created is in service improvement or innovative service solutions.

CM and Nationalized Bus Service

In recent years, there is political pressure, demanding nationalized public transport, due to unhappy incidents of breakdown, poor services, fares increase, late arrivals, scheduling and other problems.

Internationally, almost no country has maintained profitable public transport system. The two operators in Singapore are making profit with government incentives. This income redistribution creates public unhappiness.

The CM is a step closer to nationalized public transport. The bus operators are management contractor, only responsible for running/maintaining bus services. They receive a fixed fee in service performance, for example, $556 million for a 5-year contract for Tower Transit.

Considering Singapore government as a good pay master, this CM is a stable income generator for the contract winner.

Since it is collecting fares, any shortfall in revenue will be shouldered by the government. Subsidy may be needed to maintain bus fares.

However, if the service standard fails to improve, the government will bear the political risk. Any bad planning in routes, infrastructure, bus purchases resulting to lower revenue, the government will bear the financial risk too.

Financial risk, as usual practice in all PAP policies, can be transferred to the citizens but can they do the same for political risk?


Notes:

#1

[more responsive to changes in ridership and commuter needs, as well as inject more competition into the industry, thereby raising service levels for commuters over time. ]

#2
https://publictransportsg.wordpress.com/2013/03/19/bus-service-enhancement-programme-bsep/

#3

#4
https://publictransportsg.wordpress.com/government-contracting-model/bulim-bus-package/

Thursday, 11 June 2015

行动党能够兵困工人党于阿裕尼吗?国会三分一决战即将开打。


在即将来临的大选,人民行动党的如意算盘是把工人党困在阿裕尼,后港和榜鹅东。如果工人党无法突围,向其他选区前进,反对党想要取得否决行动党在国会三分二绝对优势的机会,将很渺茫。

因此,走出阿裕尼将会是新加坡政治的另一个里程碑。从后港走出来,再从阿裕尼走出去,行动党能够困得住工人党吗?

前总统候选人陈钦亮,不久前在博文中透露一段八卦新闻#1。大意主要有两点:1.行动党将失去4个集选区和2.前总统候选人陈清木将率领40位行动党领袖加入工人党。谣言,八卦,还是无风不起浪,见仁见智。

总的来说,反对党如果想要否决行动党在国会的优势,可能4个集选区还不够,4个集选区到不了三分一议员人数。除非,4个集选区再加上所有的单选区,这似乎不太可能。更何况,选区划分还没有出来,集选区也有可能变小。如果集选区只有三人一组,4个集选区只能产生12个反对党议员。

因此,4个集选区虽然好像很多,新加坡选民可能害怕,为什么一下子,出现这么多反对党议员。仔细想一想,对于行动党来说,仍然十分安全,行动党人依然可以马照跑,舞照跳,百万薪水照样入袋,国会里多几把声音而已,行动党的法案,条例依然无法阻挡。行动党高薪养廉的政策,人口政策,组屋,交通等政策依旧不变。

难怪,李显龙总理说,国会不是反对党议员人数的多少,问题是质量#2,如果素质好,少几个也没有问题,依然能够发挥反对党的角色。的确,国会反对党议员人数少过三分一,也只能比现在多一点声音,国会里仍然是由行动党来操控。

话虽然如此说,李总理还是有些担忧。他警告选民,不要随意的改变,不要以为投票给反对党,就不会变天。
接受华文媒体访问李总理谈变天   wanbao.com.sg.png
#2

但是,失去4个集选区,还是变不了天。行动党依然一党独大。虽然如此,李总理还是反对选民自由投票,不希望选民放心投票,因为,他认为选民的这种思维是很危险的。他骨子里就认为自由投票,放心投票就会变天,变天对新加坡是不好的。

因此,工人党和行动党在阿裕尼的攻守问题上,在短期将会决定行动党失去几个集选区,在长期,那就是变天的大问题了。如果行动党守得好,把工人党困在原地踏步,无法突围,那么,反对党壮大的可能性就会被大大减落了。反之,突围成功,拿下多几个集选区,变天的可能性就提高了。

目前看来,从行动党一直在阿裕尼出面,搞动作的所谓候选人,真的的是兵,而不是将军。因此,用兵困阿裕尼形容比较适合。行动党也明白这些小兵只能在周边喧闹,起不了什么大作用。

行动党其实用的是心理战术和断粮策略。工人党市镇理事会在主流媒体的误导下,是一个不善管理,账目不清,没有依照程序做事,没有把选民利益放在第一位的管理者。因此,政府要向法庭申请独立审查工人党市镇会的账目,连开支票,国家发展部也要插上一手。当然,国家发展部已经两年没有把国家津贴的钱转移到工人党市镇会,这像不像战争中的断粮手段。行动党希望市镇会没有钱发工资,垃圾没有人清理,维修工作无法进行,选民就会闹事,甚至起来反抗无能的管理者。

心理和断粮比起小兵围困阿裕尼,在行动党看来,有效多了。这同时也警惕其他战区-集选区和单选区的选民,不听行动党话的下场,将是断粮的后果。行动党在不提升组屋,不改进设备和设施等措施失效后,现在,更加注重心理战术和实际钱财的问题。选民如果相信行动党这套说法,对于工人党走出阿裕尼当然造成威胁,对于其他反对党要在其他选区建立根据地也会造成困难。

如果反对党在国会里,连三分一的议员席位都达不到,如何变天?这踏出阿裕尼的一大步,是如何的重要。难怪总理如此害怕选民自由投票,放心投票。难道自由投票,放心投票不是最基本的选民权利吗?这还需要总理的苦口婆心吗?在民主选举下,政府有必要确保选民是在自由,自愿,放心的气氛下投票。而不是在心理威胁和银弹威胁下投票。

看来,总理很希望回到SG50,过去所谓的自由和放心投票,这样一来,就没有变天问题,行动党的所谓接班人问题也能顺利解决了。

结果如何,还要看阿裕尼的突围战 - 变天的导火线。


#1

#2
http://www.wanbao.com.sg/multimedia/vodcast/story20150116-46188

Sunday, 7 June 2015

Only 64% Chinese Readers Participate At SG50 Events?


omy SG50 participation 7 June 2015.png
omy.sg 7 June 2015


A survey by omy.sg shows that only 64% of Chinese readers have participated in any SG50 events. 11% do not know of any SG50 activities. Another 24% either have no interest or do not participate at all.   

Chinese readers are, of course, not the total population. It is a biased sample. However, a strong support from Chinese readers (including Channel8/U viewers) will make a difference of the PAP showing in the coming general election. Why? This is the traditional PAP support base.  

This simple poll, of course, is a not a scientific survey.  However, if we consider those SG50 participants are PAP supporters. Then, the result is quite close to the 2011 GE and the recent (May 2015) Blackbox Research result - within a significant and confident level.



 
Blackbox.com.sg


This means there is no improvement or slight improvement of support even with the passing of LKY and SG50 celebration.

Is this a high participation rate after all the promotion efforts in the mainstream media and ads in social media?  Perhaps, it is still too low.

As announced early, around 1.2 million households will receive National Day goodie bags through People’s Association.

The PAP is pushing very hard to reach you. If you don’t come to me, I will go to you. Nearly all households in Singapore, except those poor foreign workers staying in non-resident housing, will indirectly participate at this SG50 goodie event. If you still show no interest, PA will get their RC or CCC volunteers to deliver to you.  

By doing so, no household can claim they don’t know SG50 and its activities. This, in statistics, means all Singaporeans are now participating at the SG50 celebration with the NDP goodie bags, whether you like or don’t like it.

You can consider this is part of the PAP election campaign. In July, the PAP makes sure you have at least one goodie. In August, the PAP has already announced one more public holiday for SG50.  After receiving the goodies and extra holiday, you should know what to do next.  This is how the PAP plan their ideal marketing strategy. Will it work?

Will voters make decision in a straight line, like the traditional three-step model. The PAP uses MSM to stimulate voters’ interest. They then buy it and experience the life under the PAP.  


Or, in a digital world, under the Google’s model of Zero Moment of Truth, the result will be very different.  Voters make decision after they have experience life under the PAP. Besides MSM, they also look at alternative news, attending rally, coffee/taxi talks, etc.  

http://www.aslanamstad.com/de/blog/single/zero-moment-of-truth.html

What do you think? Can ZMOT make history in Singapore?

Thursday, 4 June 2015

Amos不拍坐牢, PAP强权高压手段失效。

【民不畏死,奈何以死惧之。若使民常畏死,而为奇者,吾得执而杀之,孰敢?常有司杀者杀。夫代司杀者杀,是谓代大匠斫,希有不伤其手者矣。#1

老子道德经第七十四章 】


人民不畏惧死亡,为什么用死来吓唬他们呢?老子在 2000多年前这么说,那个时代已经到了人民不害怕死亡的阶段。

今天,新加坡也有人不害怕坐牢,还坚持一定要坐牢,即使留下案底也在所不惜。为什么事情的发展会沦落到这个地步?人民行动党难道没有错吗?这是否意味着行动党的高压手段,强权政治已经发挥不出功效了?

余澎杉口口声声一直强调,他要坐牢。6月2日上庭他这么说,之前,在庭上他也这么说。但是,控方和法庭却不这么认为,他们认为余澎杉应该被改造和辅导。

{控方随后表示,余澎杉需要改造和辅导。坐牢或罚款对他起不了作用,因此建议法官,考虑判他入青年改造所。}#2

余澎杉如果能够像以前在内安法下被逮捕拘留那该多好!这样一来,就可以不经审讯,好好的改造和辅导一番。可惜,内安法这一套,不但不可以放在一个少年身上,更加不可能用在发表不同声音的言论自由上。

对于没有高人指导的行动党来说,它只能通过法庭来处理。而法庭和控方也一直努力,尽量不要让余澎杉留下案底。似乎,有意保护余澎杉的前途。因此,借着不留案底的口号,他们又让余澎杉多还押三个星期。

{还押三周,等待监狱署报告评估他是否适合进入青年改造所。}#2

余澎杉看来真的有点像过去被内安法拘留的人。过去被拘留的政治犯人,都是要被改造和辅导。好像谢太宝的不愿意被改造和辅导,最后失去32年的自由,成为世界上坐政治牢最长的人。

【因此,不经起诉或审讯的情况下,谢太宝失去了长达32年的自由,成为全世界服刑最长的政治犯之一。而与谢太宝相比,纳尔逊·曼德拉是在经过审判的情况下,叛国、破坏及其他政治罪行成立,被监禁长达27年。】#3

在行动党的统治下,新加坡已经创造了世界上坐政治牢最长的记录。现在,在李显龙领导下,根据革新党的肯尼斯的形容,我们现在已经有了世界上最年轻的政治犯了#4。这应该归功行动党的领导有方,还是领导无能?

SG50的李光耀时代,我们的强权政治,产生了最长的政治犯牢期。后SG50,我们很快的青出于蓝而胜于蓝,产生了世界上最年轻的政治犯。但是,怎么看也看不出李显龙比李光耀强权专制,还是底牌还没有开出,光耀已去,显龙就露出尾巴来吗?那么,这条尾巴,为什么要拿少年来开刀呢?

青年改造所的改造和辅导,可以长达30个月。而余澎杉的两项成立的罪行,如果坐牢和罚款,远远短于30个月。余澎杉在6月1日的博文中#5,对他本身的案件提出他的看法,分析案情和对判决的不满。他的思维,比他的年龄来得成熟多了。

我们想一想,如果进去青年改造所,在这之后,他还要服兵役。这表示余澎杉将有一段长时间,不能够与粉丝见面了。

行动党如此害怕一个少年,为什么?这难道是改造和辅导这么简单吗?还是害怕大选快来了,如果让这种不害怕坐牢的人,在网上继续发言,对于行动党的选情将会更加不利,这样的解释,有没有道理?

话说回来,是什么原因造成人民不害怕坐牢才是问题的关键?SG50那套强权政治在社交媒体,新媒体的时代,还管用吗?到底是行动党脱离群众,不了解年轻人,还是这是行动党希望看到的个体事件,个别事件,因此,不用小题大做。既然如此,为何行动党要把余澎杉案件塑造成国际新闻,让世人认为新加坡跟不上国际轨道,在人权上开了倒车。

或许,对于行动党的领导人来说,除了延续SG50的遗产,继续强权专制外,他们想不出另一条新的新加坡之路。守业对于现在的行动党人来说,真的比创业来得难。

除了余澎杉外,抵触法律,不害怕坐牢(或者没有想到坐牢)的人,还是有的。只是每个人的命运不同罢了。

虚报李光耀死讯,不被控告。
Teen avoids charges for faking report of Lee Kuan Yew’s death   TODAYonline.png
http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/teen-who-posted-fake-announcement-mr-lee-kuan-yews-death-issued-stern-warning

总统府前举牌示威被捕
https://tnesingapore.wordpress.com/2015/04/05/2-arrested-for-staging-a-protest-outside-istana/

组屋顶层涂鸦被控告
http://everythingalsocomplain.com/2014/05/08/toa-payoh-hdb-rooftop-vandalised-by-graffiti/

马国人在鱼尾狮前集会
http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/singapore/story/21-malaysians-arrested-staging-outdoor-protest-merlion-park-20130511

德国青年涂鸦地铁车厢被告
http://world.huanqiu.com/photo/2015-03/2765895.html


#1[译文]
人民不畏惧死亡,为什么用死来吓唬他们呢?假如人民真的畏惧死亡的话,对于为非作歹的人,我们就把他抓来杀掉。谁还敢为非作歹?经常有专管杀人的人去执行杀人的任务,代替专管杀人的人去杀人,就如同代替高明的木匠去砍木头,那代替高明的木匠砍木头的人,很少有不砍伤自己手指头的。

#2

#3

#4
http://sonofadud.com/2015/06/04/amos-yee-singapores-youngest-political-prisoner/

#5

https://amosyee.wordpress.com/