Saturday, 7 July 2018

组屋转售价跌,拥车证价跌,代表了什么?


组屋转售价跌,拥车证价跌,与此相对应却是产业市场过度的旺与热,这代表了什么?

这代表了新加坡的两个世界 - 一个1%,5%,或许15%私人产业拥有者的世界。另一个是85%,甚至85%的中下层人民,地地道道的本土新加坡人,他们的世界没有机会选择和分享私人房产的旺与热。
   
金融管理局在发布常年报告的记者会上,提醒开发商和私人房产购买者小心,不要过于“欣快 ”'euphoria',过度狂热私人房产,而忘了风险。过后,政府就发出新的限制房产市场过热的措施。

报纸上刊登了人们在最后一刻,抢购房产的新闻与照片,这是新加坡的一面。这里面当然包括外国买家,非居民,非新加坡公民。这一幕能够代表新加坡吗?人民行动党说,当然可以,这代表了新加坡的欣欣向荣,繁荣的一面。“屋”有所值,所以,新加坡可以高价卖卖房地产。

真的如此吗?那么,政府组屋转售价下跌,小车拥车证下价,中下层人民为了公积金养老问题,看病烦恼,又是什么现象?难道这不是真的吗?还是,这不是行动党政府要人民看到,不希望媒体大肆报道的新闻,尤其是不希望外国投资者看到的一面。

行动党政府在粉饰太平,还是,告诉人们,这里有一线希望,只要努力,还是有机会搭上房产市场的旺与热。因此,国人应该继续“欣快 ”'euphoria'下去,支持行动党,而行动党会会继续制造机会,让大家都旺热起来。这或许是70%国人投票支持行动党的原因吧?但是,这种欣快 ”'euphoria'是一时的,还是持续的?

只要私人房产业,是开放,国际买家可以自由出入,而国际经济没有出现严重问题,新加坡这个相对的小市场,是比较容易制造需求,不害怕没有人来买房产。当然,这里是指私人房产的部分,政府组屋由于有所限制,不是国际买家的肉。

但是,我们有必要进一步想一想。一个国家,如果没有中下层作为基层、作为基础,这个国家能够一路不断的“欣快 ”'euphoria'下去吗?政府组屋,小车拥车证,公积金,医药费,这些都是中下层人民的基础、基石。它们的下跌和不足,说明了什么?

中下层的基础、基层和基石,他们的购买力,消费力,现在正面临考验。一般情形,组屋转售价应该上扬,小车拥车证也应该上升,,中下层人民也不必担心公积金养老问题和看病烦恼才对。这表示这个80到85%的基础,没有行动党描绘那样旺与热,如果有的话,那就是一种虚假的“欣快 ”'euphoria'。行动党通过媒体制造出来的欣快 ”'euphoria'。

行动党政府最近还有一个令人费解的说明。地铁公司盈利失守,造成亏损的其中一个原因是搭客人数减少。经济一片旺热,没有衰退,怎么会没有人搭地铁?这当然和中下层有关,地铁是我们的主要交通工具,即使管理不善,也不可能不搭地铁。如果,真的如此,那么,这个中下层的基层,的确出现问题,甚至非常严重,这不是房产的欣快 ”'euphoria'所能弥补的。

金融管理局,告诫私人房产买家,不要过度欣快 ”'euphoria',要小心风险,利率、外汇兑换率,国际经济局势,甚至个人的就业问题,生意问题,也是需要考虑的。换一个角度来说,同样的告诫也发生在85%的国人身上,买不起私人房产,也同样要面对这些问题。

事实上,行动党过去60多年,就一直在制造“欣快 ”'euphoria'。瑞士的生活水准,您享受到了吗?

Sunday, 1 July 2018

Competition from Malaysia? Real or not real?



Whether real or not real, it is possible and soon we will face competition from Malaysia if the new government is doing the right things there.  As reported in the news, there are some promising signs in term of meritocracy, transparency and democracy. And most importantly, they are not afraid to admit their past mistakes.

    Real or not real, Singapore cannot take it lightly like the past 60 years.

Consider the “if” factors:
  • If the Penang experience can spread to the whole of Malaysia.
  • If Malays can appreciate and value the importance the third language - Chinese. And Malaysia can turn it as their edge over Singapore.
  • If the government is more open and transparent than Singapore. Yes. it is a real challenge.
  • If the leaders and GLCs executives are selected based on performance and meritocracy. Yes. They have started.
  • If there are less political influences in business and commerce. Yes. They are trying.

If Singapore only looks at the short-term issues like HSR, water, immigrations-checkpoints, etc, and fail to see the changes in Malaysia, by the time, we realise the real challenges and competition from Malaysia, it is too late.

Based on the record of the past 60 years, the many “ifs” still remain “ifs” in Malaysia, there is no improvement and as Mahathir said the corruption situation has worsen and political appointed executives are all over the government and government-linked companies. And he intends to replace 20,000 of such appointments.

Looking back at our own situation in Singapore and our management teams of GLCs and associated so-called private enterprises, do we face the same problems as the new Mahathir government?  Real or not real will see how we perform as compared to their Malaysian counterparts.

The mindset of “we always win” may have to change as soon as possible.  “We may lose”, perhaps, should be the new mindset.

On the HSR issue, Mahathir said it is “not urgent” so do many other issues that involving Singapore and Malaysia. Mahathir has chosen Indonesia as the first Asean country as his official visit despite PM Lee Hsien Loong making an urgent visit there.

Is “not urgent” real or not real? Why is Mahathir making such a statement? Some argue he is using water issue to delay or bargain for the HSR issue. It is an over simplistic explanation. If PM Lee is also thinking the same way, he has not seen the real competition from Malaysia.

So what are the competition from Malaysia? If they only manage to solve half of the “if” factors and problems, do they still pose a challenge to us?  

Then we may have to look at the citizen engagement. Mahathir said his government will fall if there is no trust from the people. While, PM Lee is asking for your trust - he wants Singaporeans to trust him but on what ground?

Pakatan Harapan can fall unless it upholds people's trust: Dr M

http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2018/06/30/pakatan-harapan-can-fall-unless-it-upholds-peoples-trust-dr-m

Trust is key in whether citizens accept unpopular decisions by Govt, says PM Lee

https://www.straitstimes.com/politics/trust-is-key-in-whether-citizens-accept-unpopular-decisions-by-govt-pm-lee