Sunday, 28 August 2016

智慧国、智慧人、新加坡的不公平智慧分享。

智慧国、智慧人、新加坡的不公平智慧分享。

收集大数据后,总理李显龙在国庆群众大会为国人呈现了一幅幅愿景。这是一种公开智慧,还是经过行动党加工后的选择性智慧?国人需要反思,最好能够辨别真伪。


全球首批无人驾驶出租车周四(25日)在新加坡开始试运营,运营商是一家名为NuTonomy的无人驾驶汽车软件开发公司,正式商业运营将在2018年上线


新加坡成为第一个推出无人驾驶出租车的国家。这是新加坡2025智慧国的一部分。大数据,人工智慧等科技当然是主要的推动力量。它们能够协助新加坡提高效率,生产力,但是,它们能够提高新加坡人的智慧吗?在数据和媒体管制下,这个智慧分享均等吗?

智慧国的硬体部分,如在全国各地设点,收集电子资料;在家里装置人工智慧设备,为老人病患提供服务;这些都涉及电脑数据的收集和分析,然后做出最适当的选择。就像无人驾驶的出租车那样,把大数据收集起来,用最快的时间做出判断,载送客人。

这是一种智慧,或者说这是利用现代科技,协助人类做出判断、选择应该走的路,而这种 machine learning 机械学习的方式,对于个人的智慧会产生什么影响?他会导致我们变得更家聪明吗?做出最好的选择吗?

柏拉图认为社会分工很重要,每个人根据自己的能力,发挥所长。
柏拉图的理想国由三种人组成:
借由苏格拉底的角色发言,柏拉图主张一个社会应该如同个人心灵的结构一般,划分为“欲望/勇气/理性”这三个部分。
  • 生产的(劳工)—一般的劳动者、木匠、水管工、石匠、农夫、农场工人等等。这些工作与灵魂的“欲望”部分相符合。
  • 防卫的(战士或后备军人)—那些具有冒险精神的、勇敢而强壮的,担任军队里的工作。这些工作与灵魂里的“勇气”部分相符合。
  • 统治的(统治者或卫国者)—那些聪明的、理性的、具有自制能力的、爱好智慧的,适合替共同体进行决策的工作。这些工作与灵魂里的“理性”部分相符合,符合此一条件的人数极少。
。。。不过,柏拉图的体系并不等同于专政、暴政、和寡头政治,如同他所强调的:
“除非我们能由哲学家担任国王进行统治、或是现在那些被称为国王的人真正适当地学习了哲学,使政治权力和哲学能完全相融合,。。。。。”(《理想国》 473c-d)
柏拉图将这些“哲学家国王”定义为“那些爱好真理的人”
https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/柏拉图

在柏拉图的理想国里,每一个的身份不是固定的。有能力的人可以向上升,而能力差了,就向下降。因此,统治者应该是哲学王-理性又坚持真理的人。

理性和真理的确也符合智慧国的理念。因为,利用电脑做出理性判断,而大数据的选择和判断,本身就是‘无情‘真理的科学表现。

但是,我们如何确保新加坡领导者是依循理性、真理的原则来决定‘新加坡智慧国’的定位?我们有如何知道智慧分享是否公平?而目前的领导者,都是务实的‘以市场经济为主导的威权专制政体” (market based authoritarian regime)下的执行者, 而不是哲学王。

他们强调务实,而不是公平。他们强调物质,而不是精神。他们强调硬体治国,而不是软体治国。这就会导致智慧的公平分配和均分问题。

Image result for NDR 2016
收集大数据后,总理李显龙在国庆群众大会为国人呈现了一幅幅愿景。这是一种公开智慧,还是经过行动党加工后的选择性智慧?国人需要反思,最好能够辨别真伪。图片来自http://www.straitstimes.com/

新加坡行动党的领导者,为了确保行动党的长期执政,一直在想尽各种方法,以非理性,非真理的方式,来达到永远的执政。总统选举制度的修改,司法维护法案的推出等就是威权专制政体的例子,也是选择性公开智慧。

因此,当行动党手中握有国家的大数据,反而更加容易操控数据分析的结果,引导人民走向一条行动党的理想国之路。在2016国庆群众大会上,总理已经给国人呈现了未来15年的愿景,这是行动党理想国的概念。

当然,行动党政府也可以选择性提供大数据,一些对它有利和不利的资料,会分开处理,这自然就会直接影响选民的选择。尤其是新加坡的新闻自由指数,越来越向后的背景下,智慧国的结果未必对国人的民主,自由和真理的追求有利。

【在定义谁是人民的总统时,行动党的智慧判断和人民的智慧判断,就差了一万八千里。行动党利用人工智慧算出来的结果和人民利用精神判断出来的结果,就大不相同。】

大数据治国,以国家智慧推动经济发展,对于人民来说具有双重意义。一方面,行动党可以很容易的驾驭人民,因为,人民的一举一动它都知道。另一方面,在它手握智慧的有利条件下,行动党利用社会分工,每一个人各司其职,发挥最大的经济潜能。但是,违背了这个游戏规则的人,就会吃亏。

这个发展结果,行动党手握的大数据,大智慧越来越多,而人民收到行动党选择性发放数据的背景下,未必一定具有智慧,未必能够做出正确的判断。

新加坡过去51年的发展,有一个急切的问题一直无法解决:跟不上国家发展的人,一直无法提升自己。这就造成贫富悬殊问题无法解决,甚至更加严重。

当我们在迈向智慧国的路上,那些无法跟上的智慧国步伐的人,怎么办?行动党高唱的终生学习会是一个良方吗?

国家有智慧,领导有智慧,而个人未必与时俱进的拥有对等的智慧。这就是行动党所谓的智慧国吗?

Wednesday, 24 August 2016

Another 15 years of Status Quo: Market Based Authoritarian Politics in Singapore



In his National Day Rally 2016, PM Lee Hsien Loong reminds us to look back 15 years to see how far we have achieved and look forward 15 years to see the future development and progress.

Yes. If you want to have these - vote the People’s Action Party and support the changes, for example, Elected Presidency, GRCs, more restrictions and controls etc.

Unfortunately, PM Lee paints a picture of the unique development of Singapore-style Market Based Authoritarian Regime - past, present and future.  Not only he insists of achieving it and he wants the future PAP PM to follow this pathway.

Unfortunately, this is a very likely scenario.

Let’s look at an example from China.

Prof. David Zweig of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology in predicting China’s future gives the following 3 scenarios:

_645bd7a22c5ab3449ada60d7d33cebbd_chinesepolitics1_6.1-page-002.jpg

Even though China and Singapore have different political systems, the outcome of political development in the next 15 to 20 years look very similar, almost the same direction.   

The three Chinese scenarios can also apply to Singapore:

Scenarios
China
SINGAPORE
1 not likely
Democratic reform
Democracy and free elections
2 most likely
Market-Leninism  
Market-Based  Authoritarian
3 impossible?
Collapse of CCP
Collapse of PAP

Here is another table which shows China is moving from totalitarianism to market economy with tight CCP control.

_645bd7a22c5ab3449ada60d7d33cebbd_chinesepolitics1_6.1-page-003.jpg
In this table, the party is the locus of power. In Singapore, we too experience this. The PAP decides and the society follows. In China, Prof. Zweig points out:

This comment sounds very familiar. In the past one year, Singaporeans have experienced more controls and restrictions on social media, freedom of speech, … just to keep the system stable and maintain support for the PAP.

If this status quo of political stagnation remains for another 15 years, how can the oppositions cope with it? What is the future direction of the oppositions?

What will be the game changer? Internal conflict within the PAP, leadership succession, global financial crisis and CPF….
Prof. Zweig predicts the third scenario although it is a possibility, it is not very high.  This can only happen when the CCP leadership rejects (economic) reforms and there are a lot of internal problems, internal disintegration.
In Singapore, it is also hard to imagine the collapse of the PAP, not even to the degree of the Nationalist KMT in Taiwan.    

Here is the video ‘China’s future’:

video
Photos and video copyright: Coursera@HKUST  

Sunday, 21 August 2016

越来越没有自信心的李显龙政府 - 不敌精灵宝可梦

越来越没有自信心的李显龙政府

当李伟玲批评哥哥李显龙的政府不如前任人民行动党政府;事实上,也间接指出,李显龙对于治国越来越没有信心。

前两任的行动党,为何对于治国比较有信心?第一任李光耀政府,作为威权政府,当然是信心满满,并且被认为是国际政治家。第二任吴作栋政府,虽然是温席,过渡总理,但是有李光耀指导、指引,间接地也有信心。

甚至在李显龙担任总理的第一阶段,李光耀在世的时候,李显龙在两位资政的协助下,信心依然还在。

现在是李显龙政府的第二阶段,李光耀过世,1995大选大获全胜后的行动党政府; 也就是李伟玲所谓的【现任行动党政府不如前任行动党】的阶段。

为何大选大获全胜,反而没有信心治国?李显龙解释为当前世界经济不稳定,国家国人要团结一心,恐怖活动,还有大家可能根本没有想到的精灵宝可梦。

李光耀和吴作栋的国庆群众大会需要呼吁新加坡人放下宝可梦,大家一起来听总理的群众大会讲演吗?李显龙说这关乎未来新加坡15年的发展,大家应该来看一看,听一听。李显龙应该自我反省,为何他前任不需这么做?为什么国人关心宝可梦,这个虚幻的梦,而不想李显龙设计的梦?是不是,李显龙的梦和宝可梦一样,都是一时的快感?

不久前,李伟玲说李显龙“滥用权力,建立王朝”,最近,在批评“司法维护法案“的时候,她认为这项新法案在规定惩处各种藐视法庭行为时,很可能成为压制言论自由的工具。

司法维护法案已经快速三读通过,目前已经成为法令。这是李显龙政府的最新工具。为何法庭没有自我判断能力,而要国会给予这个增加的权力。美国法院绝对不会要求总统或者国会,给予它多一些权力。因为,美国法院就是宪法的最终诠释者,不需要什么多加的权力。当然,美国民主和新加坡民主是不一样的。新加坡法庭需要国会立法来保护法庭的尊严,而美国法院作为一个独立的机构,可以自我决定和保护自己的尊严。

一个人或者一个机构,要获得尊严、尊重,是要自己去争取的。

李显龙为新加坡法庭增加权力,通过司法维护法案,这难道不是他对治国没有信心的表现吗?

当然,他没有信心的治国还表现在总统选举制度的改变。他在这个时候改变李光耀奇思妙想出来的总统选举制度,刚好是李光耀过世和大选大获全胜一年后,为何这么快就做出根本性的改变?大家想一想,很值得回味。他当然没有信心面对明年总统选举可能出现的不利局面,所以先下手为强。

当然,他也管制媒体,不论主流媒体还是社交媒体,我们的新闻媒体的自由度,在李显龙政府时代,没有上升,反而下降。至少,吴作栋在1999年,同意开放芳林公园作为国人的演说角落,比李显龙还稍微开放一些。难怪,国人喜欢宝可梦而不喜欢群众大会,宝可梦可以自由的玩,新闻自由却不是国人玩得起的。


李显龙政府如果要国人观看群众大会,大可创新精灵宝可梦,把50年的愿景化为各种精灵宝可梦,还有把CPF、储备、国库、淡马锡、医药、教育、就业、经济、国防变成魔头、道场,让精灵宝可梦去除妖灭魔。

我们有这样的创意吗?

李显龙有信心把法庭、储备、淡马锡、经济、公积金等变成道场,让精灵宝可梦去侵占吗?去发表意见吗?


Thursday, 18 August 2016

50.39% - Mission Impossible for the Oppositions?


It takes 21 years for Joseph Schooling to achieve 50.39 seconds and winning an Olympic Gold for Singapore.

It may take another 21 years, 4 or 5 general elections later, for oppositions in Singapore to reach 50.39% of the popular votes.

It sounds meaningless to link swimming to politics. It is a fallacy as sports is above politics as seen in parliament where both the PAP and WP congratulates Joseph for his achievement.   

However, both involves competitions. In every competition, you have winners and losers. And as Joseph has rightly put it to win is to beat others.  

Joseph Schooling on racing  I d like to think I can beat everyone  AsiaOne Singapore News.png
http://news.asiaone.com/news/singapore/joseph-schooling-racing-id-think-i-can-beat-everyone

In politics and during general elections, you need to beat your opponents to win enough popular votes. It is understandable why the PAP talks so much about problems at Aljunied-Hougang Town Council and so little (downplay) about the lapses mentioned in Auditor-General Office Report. They want to score political points and get more votes.   

So is winning an Olympic Gold easier or more difficult than beating the PAP? More difficult if one judges from the result of GE2015.  Why?

[Changing rules]
In an Olympic game, whether swimming or table-tennis, all rules are made known in advance. There is an international guarding body overlooking the rules, including doping issues.
While in Singapore, election rules are set by the PAP. You don’t know the date. You don’t even know the boundary of your constituency. You train very hard in a constituency, for example, 100m butterfly, when election comes, the constituency disappears after the boundary review. For swimming, it means 100m butterfly is no more a competition item despite all the hard trainings you put in.

Singaporeans must understand a competition in Olympic is fair and equal than our general elections.  


[Funding and supports]
Schooling family spent S$1.35 million to fulfill Joseph’s Olympic dream. How many families in Singapore have million dollar cash? Singaporeans are asset rich cash poor.  We salute Schooling family for making such a big sacrifice for Singapore!
7年苦心支持儿梦想135万栽培约瑟林   wanbao.com.sg.png
http://www.wanbao.com.sg/local/story20160814-88348#local

In Singapore politics, oppositions are both assets poor and cash poor. Even in the ‘meet-the-people sessions, opposition members of parliament have to use HDB void decks to conduct their activities. However, the PAP can make use of all government resources, in particular People’s Association.   

For the PAP, it is from ‘ownself check ownself’ to ‘ownself finance ownself’.

Without funding and supports, how far can the oppositions go? According to Dr Chee Soon Juan of Singapore Democratic Party, it is ‘redouble effort’.
(https://www.facebook.com/cheesoonjuan/videos/10155392179278849/?video_source=pages_finch_main_video)

It is not only a doubling effort but a long-term effort. We all know in the next one or two general elections, the oppositions can gain more votes and seats but still far from 50.39%.

[External training - outside mainstream]
Singapore certainly does not have first class training expertise for our sportsmen and sportswomen.  Whether local or foreign talents, one will need external training and foreign help to excel.

This is why Joseph has his training in the US. And because of this, he is not a mainstream product of Singapore sports.

For oppositions in Singapore, there is no external training opportunities. Even there is one, they have to watch out of ‘foreign influence’ and be accused of ‘betraying Singapore’.

But at the same time, the PAP has established cooperative relationship with Chinese Communist Party. There are frequent visits and exchanges from both sides.  They learn from each other? When the PAP leaders visit important Western countries, they always meet both the ruling and opposition party leaders.  Why? Why do they need to learn from foreign oppositions? 

No external training, no funding, no resource, unable to set the competition rules, oppositions can only do it alone. Most likely they have to work outside the mainstream as all state resources are out of bounds to them.  

[Investing young leaders]
Joseph indicates we have to work at a young age. We have to take the alternative, non-traditional way.   

If 50.39% can only be achieved after 4 or 5 general elections later, then there is an immediate task for the oppositions: invest and attract young leaders in their 20s, 30s and early 40s.  

To beat the mainstream PAP, the oppositions is to take an alternative way, a long way and a difficult way. Not only that, it has to start early. We need new and young bloods to join the oppositions. We hope the success of Joseph can change the viewpoints of Singaporeans towards the oppositions.    

Joseph’s success has proved that with a smaller support and limited finance - family, relatives, friends, spirit and moral helps, one can still be a champion.   

With at least 30% support, there is still hope for the oppositions.     

We need young Singaporeans to join the oppositions. And we must support and encourage them to do so. Joseph has clearly shown us with determination and confidence of beating everyone, one can achieve his/her dream.

Youth is an asset. And Workers’ Party has it all.

http://pijitailai.blogspot.sg/2015/09/youth-is-asset-and-workers-party-has-it.html

Saturday, 13 August 2016

前进吧! 新加坡。金牌背后的叛逆故事。。。


SM13-SHI-001-01

8月9日,新加坡刚刚庆祝立国51周年。

8月13日,新加坡终于在奥林匹克运动会上赢得第一面金牌,举国欢庆。尤其是人民行动党政治领袖和高官们,更加认为这个创举和他们息息相关,甚至坚信这和他们的教育、培育、支持有关。

事实是否如此?金牌背后的故事,约瑟林个人和家庭的支持、坚持、信念,甚至是叛逆行为更加有可能是约瑟林成功之道。

当新加坡国歌巴西里约响起,当新加坡国旗在游泳馆升起,我们在分享的这份光荣和荣誉时,应该想起约瑟林妈妈的坚持,以及她如何为支持约瑟林完成任务而付出的努力。

这是一个活生生的不以行动党方式,背离行动党僵硬制度的成功例子。当然,当你选择走一条不同的道路,你的压力一定不少,有时还被认为是麻烦制造者。

雅虎新加坡在2013年访问过约瑟林妈妈May,内容涉及对新加坡的效忠和国民服役问题。May反问当局,她在教导约瑟林效忠新加坡,但是,如果国家不给于支持,约瑟林如何取得游泳的佳绩。

约瑟林.png
https://sg.sports.yahoo.com

这或许是一个先有鸡蛋还是先有鸡的问题。大家都无法在几年前就判断约瑟林,可以在今天取得金牌。
可能会,也可能不会。

但是,如果当时约瑟林一家,像绝大数新加坡家庭一样,一听到行动党的为难,一听到政府的不支持,就马上松手,不愿违背国家的既定政策,不愿意坚持自己的信念和理想,那么,我们很可能就看不到这举国欢庆的一幕了。

这种情形,就像我们不能理解,微软、脸书的创办人,为何书没有读完,就放弃美国名牌大学的学业,而要创业一样。这需要叛逆的勇气。走和一般人不一样的路。

走和一般人不一样的路,选择和新加坡一般家庭不一样的路,就是今天约瑟林成功背后的故事。

行动党政府一向不喜欢人民选择和它不一样的道路。行动党喜欢规划,它要人民这样走,人们就要这样走。从幼儿园开始,行动党就已经灌输新加坡人,要听话,要团结,要跟着党的路线走,小学,中学,理工学院,到大学,不为培养独立思考,只要听从指示,甚至假扮被强奸都可以。

新加坡人在约瑟林取得奥运金牌后,应该反思。行动党的听话教育,是否真的能够为我们拿到金牌?我们依靠外来人才,也只能获得银牌而已。不管外来还是本地人才,如约瑟林,他们要取得成功,都是和一般人走不一样的路。外来人才离乡背井到新加坡来走一条不一样的路,约瑟林到美国受训,也是一条不一样的路。他们都要为自己的坚持和信念而付出很大的牺牲。

我们有必要珍惜,走不一样路线的人,提出不同意见的人。

立国51年后,如果我们只是一味的认定行动党路线,一味跟着行动党走,这对我们的将来是否有益?这对我们取得突破性进展,持续性成功是否有所帮助?

顺便一提,约瑟林一家是中上以上的家庭,他们对问题有不同的看法和坚持。他们也更加愿意为孩子的理想而坚持和奋斗。约瑟林的成功也依靠外国人的帮助,尤其是美国方面的支持。这是一个团体的胜利,国内外合作成功的例子。可惜,行动党政府在这个成功的例子里的角色,并不是主导。当然,现在成功了,行动党政府当然会大声的说,这是它主导的胜利。

真的吗?当局不久前不是说巴西里约奥运没有现场直播吗?如果真的如此,那么国人不是痛失观看这个举国欢庆的一幕了吗?还是,行动党政府不愿让国人看到,叛逆行为成功的壮举?

再一次提醒新加坡人,当行动党政府对不同意见的人采取行动,把大人、小孩的不同于行动党的意见,以叛逆的形式表现出来的时候,我们有必要反思、检讨、综合意见、从内到外、从外到内的思考主流媒体和非主流媒体的观点,才下判断。

一味的跟着行动党路线走,也只能做个顺民,而要取得成功、取得要突破、拿到金牌,行动党的指导版本,未必能够管用。当然,不论是政治还是运动,坚持信念,为理想而奋斗,而叛逆,是要付出很大的牺牲的,这又是一般人做不到的。而这正是行动党看得很准的新加坡人的弱点。

Monday, 8 August 2016

Downgrading Singapore-Taiwan Relationship by a Drunken Representative?


Taiwan is sending a drunken representative, Antonio Chiang, to Singapore. Even he is not caught by drink-driving, Chiang or any representative of the new Taiwan government to Singapore is already a clear sign of deterioration of Singapore-Taiwan relationship.

However, it may not be fair to say Taiwan under the new government is intentionally downgrading the relationship. We have to admit that Singapore is also doing the same. It is a mutual action and perhaps agreement.

It is an open secret that the People’s Action Party has close relationship with the Nationalist Party (KMT). When Chen Shui Bian of Democratic Progressive Party became the President in 2000, Taiwan-Singapore relationship has begun to deteriorate. Even Ma Ying-jeou took over the Presidency in 2008, there was no significant improvement in unofficial diplomatic relationship. (Singapore only recognises mainland China).

Military training in Taiwan is the strongest link amongst all the unofficial contacts. However, this has been downgraded as Singapore armed forces now have many training opportunities in other countries.

Chiang is a critic of the KMT government and a journalist and columnist with Apple Daily in Taiwan. Chiang, a representative of free press, now has to settle in a media controlled environment. What will be the chemical effect for him?

Here is a report from the Straits Times:

[Taiwan's new representative to Singapore Antonio Chiang has been arrested for drink driving - just hours after being sworn in for his job, the island's media reports said.
Mr Chiang, 72, was pulled over by police for a spot check in Taipei on Tuesday night. A breathalyser test showed his blood alcohol content was 0.27mg per litre.
In Taiwan, drivers caught with 0.25mg per litre or 0.05 per cent of blood alcohol content can be jailed for up to two years and fined up to NT$200,000 (S$8,500).] #

Some in Taiwan argue that 0.27mg per litre
is just a little over 0.25mg per litre and in Singapore drivers caught with 0.27mg per litre is not even an offence.


The drink driving limit seems stricter in Taiwan. Singapore is more tolerant with a higher mg per litre. But we set very high demand for press freedom. We are known as a regime unwilling to tolerate dissents and alternative views. The new Taiwan government should already know this in advance. And yet, they decide to send a newsman here, why?


Hence, we need to look at the bigger picture. In Singapore, Chiang will have to face a stricter media control. In addition to his diplomatic status (with proper protocol), he will need to observe his right of free expression in Singapore, especially our domestic politics.

Singapore and Taiwan in fact are engaging in a controlled drunken mood or misunderstanding. Taiwanese admires our economic performance and high per capita income. They also like our organised government and society. However, they always neglect the trade-off and forget the democratic development here. They also fail to see the high inequality here.

We see Taiwan people enjoying high degree of democracy, free press, sometimes even overdone.  And we wonder how can an economy progress with so many challenges, uncertainties, chaos like Taiwan. PM Lee Hsien Loong had clearly stated longer ago he could not handle more than 10 opposition MPs. So, he is not able to run countries like Taiwan?

Afterall, we certainly cannot expect a drunken envoy, who is a champion for freedom of speech, to lobby for free press here.  We know too well how the PAP treats the press as well as how they pay their respect to journalists.  Chiang, as a long time journalist, should take notice of the higher restriction on free expression. Yes, he can escape drink driving offence here but free press requirement is set higher than drink driving.

So, your excellent Mr Chiang, you can drink but be aware of free press.

http://jg69.blogspot.sg/2008/05/singapore-activists-mark-world-press.html

#

## latest development
http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/taiwan-envoy-antonio-chiang-to-take-up-posting-to-singapore-after-being-spared-from

### Chiang resigned
http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/taiwans-new-envoy-to-singapore-antonio-chiang-resigns-over-drink-driving-scandal