Friday, 31 July 2015

空城计,死诸葛,行动党还有股息分吗?

2015 PAP Strategy 战略 2

上文提到李光耀作为行动党的诸葛孔明,他的离去,令很多行动党人迷失方向,痛哭更加不用说了。到底李光耀为行动党设计出一套什么制度,导致几十年来,行动党一直胜出, 一党独大。


先说李光耀本身,自从1991年以来,丹戎巴葛集选区就没有出现竞选。即使到了2011年,对手因为技术性原因,迟到几秒,最后还是让李光耀的空城计成功。


集选区的设计,可以说是选举制度中,最成功的例子。名义上是民主选举,一人一票,事实上,大家都知道这是空城计。自从1988年实行以来,的确成功的为行动党做出贡献。但是,这个空城计也有一个缺点,一旦输掉,就失去3个议席。


Singapore Parliamentary General Election 1988   Eunos GRC.png
source: singapore-elections.com


1988年13个设计出来的集选区中,只有10个出现竞选。但是,其中有四个集选区。反对党的得票超过40%。它们是阿裕尼,中峇鲁,勿洛, 和友诺士。工人党几乎在友诺士胜出。中峇鲁其实就是丹戎巴葛集选区的前身。


行动党的诸葛亮就是看到3人一组不行,因此,就把人数增加,他本身领队丹戎巴葛集选区,一直到今天,这个集选区的空城计还在。但是,随着李光耀的离去,丹戎巴葛集选区的接班人,就肯定要面对一场激烈的竞选。这是1988年的情形:


Singapore Parliamentary General Election 1988   Tiong Bahru GRC.png


中峇鲁集选区的刘程强过后转战后港,终于在1991年当选成为议员。接着下来的故事就是历史了。


无论如何,李光耀的空城计还是成功的。他把新加坡的民主化进程延后几十年,也为行动党绝对执政立下汗马功劳。对于行动党人来说,说到这段往事,就会像黄永宏那样眼泪就要落下来。今天的选情,已经没有空城计效应,而行动党本身,也不再有孔明了。


空城计让反对党看着城门却不敢进去。就像孔明坐在城墙上弹琴,司马懿不敢攻进去。李光耀从1991年一直坐到2015年,不但弹琴,还笑看天下。一直到阿裕尼集选区被攻破后,整个空城计的完美设计才被识破。现在,不只是要攻进去,各个反对党还要争着攻进去。


空城计失败了。行动党怎么办?《三国演义》最后说,诸葛亮无法完成统一大业,最后一次出征,还病死。小说写得很精彩,说死的诸葛亮, 还是能够安全的让蜀汉军队回到蜀汉。李光耀已经走了,他如何能够安全的让行动党的军队退守到安全区,不让反对党进一步扩大势力范围。


从黄永宏的反应,李光耀似乎没有留下什么良策。李光耀留下的选区划分,能够确保万无一失吗?理论上看来,选区划分还是可以取到一些作用,尤其是西部选区。


我们在回看1988年的情形。4个反对党得票超过40%的集选区,就有三个在东部。其实再加上淡滨尼集选区的39%,新加坡东部的选情,在1988年的时候,已经可以说是危险的阶段了,反对票高达40%以上。李光耀设计的空城计扩大计划,选区划分,再加上媒体的渲染抹黑,让行动党政权顺顺利利过了几十年好日子。


难怪,主流媒体还在大唱,这是“LKY dividend”李光耀留给行动党的红利股息。到底有没有股息?还剩多少?行动党还有股息可以分给它的候选人吗?


事实上,行动党的股息在3月过后,就开始慢慢的消失。李光耀留给行动党的股息,其实只有两个月。5月过后,行动党政府面对很多负面新闻,从小孩到大人,审计报告,再到地铁事故,拖到现在,红利股息都不见了。所以,行动党的股价也会跟着下跌。李光耀人为超控,利用空城计,选区划分来抬高股价的做法,现在正面对市场的重新评估,如果股市行情不好,就会遇到抛售的压力。


行动党很可能会因为业绩不好,而发不出股息,红利更加不用说了。业绩不好,公司上下就要面对裁员。因此,领导层的头头,就有人要被裁退掉,这就要看作为股民的选民要在股东大会上,做出最后的决定,是否要把整个领导层换掉,还是保留一部分领导?


小结


  1. 行动党继续沿用神算李光耀的空城计和选区划分策略。当年,神算没有建议划分阿裕尼和淡滨尼集选区,是一个败笔(见下)。


  1. 1988年的一级集选区战区,2015年依然是一级战区:
1988集选区
1988反对党得票%
2015集选区
阿裕尼
43.7%(民主党)
阿裕尼
友诺士
49.1%(工人党)
马林百列
勿洛
45.1%(工人党)
东海岸
淡滨尼
39%(团结党)
淡滨尼
惹兰勿刹
37.7%(工人党)
惹兰勿刹
中峇鲁
42.2%(工人党)
丹戎巴葛


3. 历史没有骗人。集选区和选区划分制度虽然延后选民的民主权利,但是,战火依然在东部地区激烈的开展。27年后,当时应该属于选民的,现在是报应的时候了。这或许是国人为先党要在这个战区出现的原因。


4. 2015大选,依然是老牌反对党比较占优势,尤其是工人党。而老选民还是熟悉老牌子。


5. 李显龙保留淡滨尼集选区,恢复惹兰勿刹集选区,似乎认为,还有“死诸葛效应”,可以让行动党安全退兵到这两个集选区。或许说,他认为“李光耀股息”还在,至少2015大选应该安全过关。


6. 正如丹戎巴葛集选区自动当选议员谢世儒自己说的,自动当选很吃亏,缺少选战经历。神算给行动党留下保护网的红利股息,但是,却培养出一支纸上谈兵的军队。

Wednesday, 29 July 2015

PAP Election Strategy and the Asian Thought Behind Voters


2015 PAP Strategy 战略 1

PAP has another set of calculation

Although my prediction of 13 single parliament seats and a total of 89 seats is right, however, my guessing of the number of group representative constituencies is wrong.

I was misled by the instruction PM Lee gave to the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee. PM Lee wants an average size of GRC < 5. I thought EBRC could understand his intention and predicted there were 3 5-member, 14 4-member and 3 3-member GRCs. This will give an average GRC size of 4.

42 当选区划分遇上地方效应,傑利蠑螈如何进行?   Google Docs.png
http://pijitailai.blogspot.sg/2015/07/blog-post_21.html?spref=fb

However, it looks like both PM Lee and EBRC are less confidence for the PAP to win the election. They retain the 2 6-member super constituencies, reduce 5-member constituencies to 6  and increase 4-member constituencies to 8.

In the new election map, if we take 4*8=32, the 4-member GRCs is only 42% (32/76) of the total GRCs. It means the average size of GRCs is > 5. PM Lee’s instruction of ‘smaller than 5’ can only be met when we add in the 13 single seats into calculation. {(13+32)/89=50.56%}

Election is a mathematical game.  It is talking about number, especially for the first-past-the post system. The winners take all.  Gerrymandering as I explained is an integer optimization problem.  The PAP has all the statistics and they can quite accurately make the election prediction using technology.

EBRC has kept their promised and beautifully delivered their white paper of 89-seat parliament in GE2015, following closely all the instructions given by PM Lee: average GRC size < 5 and at least 12 single seats.  

How can we read their minds behind all these magic numbers? How can we break their ideal optimization calculation?

  • By retaining the 2 6-member GRCs, it is a ‘sure win’ strategy.
  • By reducing the number of 5-member GRCs, it is a ‘cut loss’ strategy.
  • By increasing 4-member GRCs and 1 more single seat, it is a ‘competition within oppositions’ strategy.

In this election, the PAP is in the defensive and they want to remain in power for many more years. EBRC is only the first step. From now on till polling day, their super-computer and election consultants are ready and on stand-by for further detailed analysis of the outcome.

They want to prevent any opposition breakthrough and hopefully continue to enjoy two-thirds majority.   

The mood of electors is the only factor that can break the PAP’s monopoly in parliament.  

This factor will be affected by historical reasons (CPF, population, transport, education, democracy, transparency etc) and ad-hoc effects (rally, social media, institutions (MRT) breakdown, bad news (corruptions), etc) .

Singapore is an Asian society and in term of democracy, we are far behind other developed Asian countries like India, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan etc. Singapore will follow the trend sooner and later.

Asian thought? Beyond god?

So, how to read the mood of Singaporeans?

28Jul2015 onLHL   TODAYonline.png

Yesterday’s Today newspaper has an interesting opinion piece on PM Lee’s comment on godless society.
Lee seems to suggest a no religion society will invite communism.

Since 75% of Singaporeans are Chinese, I would like to discuss this from another perspective. If Lee is referring to China and Chinese communism, I think he got his fact wrong. This worries me as China is the next superpower and Lee is promoting a wrong understanding of China. How can Singaporeans do successful businesses there?

Chinese thinking is very complex and it is always linked to the past (language, history, culture, philosophy).  The blue plan of today’s China infrastructure development is just an ‘update’ of Sun Yat-sen Grand Development Plan in the early 1900s. Chinese history clearly shows many big project developments in different dynasties.  

What has this got to do with Singapore?

Singaporean Chinese, even though less 'Chinese-ness', still have some Chinese thinking, especially older Chinese. For this election, statistics show there are slightly more post-1965 voters than older generation voters. However, the Chinese thinking remains here. LKY tried very hard to change it but even a Englsih-speaking Singapore Chinese still maintain some Chinese thinking.

PM Lee commented on godless society. I wonder what is his religion? In Chinese history, Chinese are more philosophical rather than religious. Sometimes, they can be very practical, for example, the many air travel incidents and behaviours of Chinese tourists. This leads to the question of ‘LKY dividend’. Respect of LKY and supporting PAP and PM Lee can be two different things.

When Singapore jumps from third world to first world, the Chinese thinking or Asian thinking (Indian and Malay Singaporeans may have the same experience too) remains. It is a complicated and complex process, different people experience different degree of change. Some only want to buy clothing in London, many still prefer to shop in Johor. The income inequality has made more JB shoppers than London shoppers, so do the voters.

The PAP has failed to understand the different degree of change.  Their assumed First World status is just a broken promise, applicable to minority Singaporeans. Since PM Lee took over the prime minister, he has got it wrong in every election.  Just like he claims he understands China but fails to understand Chinese history.

There are historical reason why Singaporeans vote for the oppositions. Aljunied voters are just taking the lead, others will follow as they too see the real colors of the PAP.

If you are interested to know more about naturalism and super naturalism in China, here is a reference video:  


video


 

Monday, 27 July 2015

渴望 * 改变


在人民行动党看来,2011年的大选,还是小儿科,小改变而已。2015年的大选才是真正的分水岭。 主要原因是李光耀不在了,行动党的“诸葛亮”不见了。因此,这是50多年来,第一个没有“行动党神算”的大选。 所以,行动党才觉得何去何从。


提起在今年3月23日逝世的建国总理李光耀时,黄永宏一度语塞,眼眶泛红。他说:“即使李光耀先生在25年前卸下总理职务,他一直都在我们身旁提供献策……来临大选,是一场没有李先生的大选。我们不再有一个李光耀来告诉我们什么才是更好的决定,我们也不再有一个李光耀来为我们做的决定提出意见。”】http://news.omy.sg/News/Features/story20150727-362494

现在,行动党才公开的告诉国人,这50,60年来,真正的行动党指导是李光耀。他的离去让行动党上下不知所措,在面临政治的新常态时,失去信心。


当然,这个2015分水岭的最高意义,还是改变。李总理昨天说:


Show the world what Singapore can be.
其实,应该说成,

Show the world what Singapore can be without LKY.

Show the world what Singapore can be without the PAP.  


总理告诉新加坡年轻人,要向世界宣示新加坡“能”,其实,他忘记说出重点:


一个没有李光耀的新加坡,我们还是“行”的。


一个没有行动党的新加坡,我们还是“行”的。


不然,分水岭的意义就显示不出来。不然,就是看不到改变。


黄永宏没有进一步说明,但是,分水岭就是改变。不然,为何说2015大选是分水岭。分水岭当然要和以前不同,不同就是改变。


渴望改变, 终于来了。


这50,60年来,即使在李光耀掌控的高峰时期,也有20多, 30多百分点的新加坡选民不满行动党。2011年已经高达40百分点。2015年,如果要成为分水岭,那当然就是要增加更加多反对票了。


“神算”已经不在,行动党没有底,李显龙也不知道。他只能叫黄永宏出来说,这是分水岭。但是,又没有讲清楚,新的百分点是多少?所以,黄永宏只能眼睛红红,说“诸葛亮”不在,所以,出现分水岭。


事实上,这个新的百分点,大家心里都没有数,不同的选区,不同的候选人,就会出现不同的百分点。


而行动党现在,正在需要“诸葛亮神算”的时候,却偏偏没有这个精神支持。看来,这年薪几百万元的总理,部长高位,越来越难做了,做到了尽头了。您想一想,很多政联公司的头头,如新电讯,甚至地铁公司总裁也是百万以上收入,但是,却没有这个政治风险。


总理,部长为他们创造这么丰厚的工作,自己却要面对改变的命运。难怪,黄永宏要哭出来。


改变的时刻已经到来,渴望已久的改变终于有了眉目。分水岭后,行动党“纸上谈兵”的将军们,又有多几个会步杨荣文将军的后尘。


其中,有个吕将军,似乎是自废武功,集选区被废,他只能喊冤。另一个陈将军,在丹绒巴葛,叫反对党不要把他当成战利品,不应该把战胜李光耀的选区,当成是一个荣耀。不过,最岌岌可危的却是另一位陈将军,因为,他遇到一只下山的老虎。


改变是为要成就一个更好的新加坡,一个没有李光耀的新加坡,一个没有行动党一党独大的新加坡。



悠悠岁月 欲说当年好困惑 亦真亦幻难取舍
悲欢离合 都曾经有过
这样执着 究竟为什么?
漫漫人生路 上下求索 心中渴望...真诚的生活
谁能告诉我 是对还是错
问询南来 北往的客

恩怨忘却 留下真情从头说
相伴人间 万家灯火 故事不多
宛如平常一段歌 过去未来共斟酌




Saturday, 25 July 2015

EBRC objectives: Stop “Out of Aljunied”, Stop SDP Breakthrough and “Negative-Asset” Ministers.


First of all, we have to congratulate the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee for creating more competitions, especially, multi-cornered competitions in the East.


When making changes, EBRC aims to achieve 3 goals:


  1. To prevent “Out of Aljunied” for Workers’ Party.  This is the most important objective.
  2. To prevent Singapore Democratic Party making any breakthrough in the North and Central.  
  3. To look for a solution to retire “negative-asset” ministers or reduce PAP damages.


From the reported claims from different political parties, we will expect multi-cornered contests not only in single constituencies but also in group representative constituencies.


The PAP hopes to have a repeat of 2011 Presidential Election. Then Tony Tan won the Presidency when he got only 35% of the votes, a narrow win.However, a win is still a win. He did in even in the very last minute, after recounts of votes.   


How to achieve multi-cornered contests?


  1. By inserting a single constituency into a GRC.
By moving Joo Chiat and Whampoa into Marine Parade and Jalan Besar GRCs respectively, it will invite competitions from WP and NSP. As SingFirst also expresses interest in Marine Parade, it is possible there is a 4-corner contest there.  


  1. By maintaining a GRC
Tampines and Pasir-Punggol have seen visits by several parties. Tampines may have 4-corner fight as NSP, WP and SingFirst have all showed interest. SDA has declared their interest in Pasir-Punggol GRC so do WP.
Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC is basically no change except adding 3 polling districts. SPP and DDP have made their claims here.  


  1. By re-arranging a GRC
Changes in Tanjong Pagar GRC and the dismantling of Moulmein-Kallang GRC will also invite different claims by different parties. SDP and SingFirst and even Reform Party have expressed in this GRC.  


  1. By creating single constituencies
The re-creation of Fengshan, MacPherson and Bukit Batok single constituencies will certainly invite interest from different parties.


There is no change in all WP-held constituencies.  However, multi-cornered contests are expected outside Aljunied. The PAP can’t do very much in Aljunied.  However, it is important to prevent WP “Out of Aljunied”. EBRC’s review create many opportunities for political competitions near and around Aljunied.  


Another not so obvious motive of EBRC is to prevent the outreach of SDP and to prevent a SDP’s breakthrough in parliament.  This is done through the breaking up a GRC to reduce SDP outreach.  In GE2011, Sembawang and Holland-Bukit Merah GRCs are next to each other. The link is now broken by the creation of  Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC. Can SDP existing resources take on these 3 GRCs plus Tanjong Pagar GRC?


By inserting some polling districts from Nee Soon GRC to Sembawang GRC and withdrawing some from Sembawang to form the new Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC, SDP will need to refocus their efforts here.  With limited resources, can SDP make a breakthrough this time?


SDP is calling for volunteers to increase their outreach.


If we look at the map of Singapore, from Sembawang to Tanjong Pagar, it is in the Centre, dividing the East and the West of Singapore. Could it be the second major battle field after the East?


EBRC likes to play magic all the time.  Some constituencies disappeared in the past but re-emerge this time. Some breaks into four, like Moulmein-Kallang GRC.  The PAP has several “negative-asset” ministers and how can they get rid of them?  They may have to do it before the election and not after the election, like GE2011 when we saw the retirement of Wong Kan Seng, Mah Bow Tan, Goh Chok Tong and even LKY.


Lui Tuck Yew is one of them. With the disappearance of Moulmein-Kallang, Liu can retire earlier. Just look at his reaction and compared it with Dr. Yaacob Ibrahim, one will see the difference. Yaacob welcomes (back) the creation of Jalan Besar GRC.  There are some more “negative-asset” ministers that you can easily figure out. Besides ministers, there are also “negative-asset” MPs, Lee Bee Wah, Tin Pin Ling (not likely to be fielded in MacPherson due to delivery)….Altogether there are about 25% of current PAP MPs will go on retirement.


2 questions to ask


  1. Is the review benefiting Singaporeans or the PAP?
It is an open secret that integer optimization can be used 
for gerrymandering#. By rearranging the polling districts, 
one party can benefit from this optimization exercise.  
While in the USA, both Republicans and Democrats are 
happily engaging in this exercise. They do it openly with 
open voting statistics available online.  

Here in Singapore, only the PAP is doing it. And it is doing 
in it a monopoly way.  How can they claim this is good 
for Singapore?

Here are some background information on gerrymandering.

# Gerrymandering Politics Out of the Redistricting Process: 
Toward a Planning Revolution in Redrawing Local Legislative Boundaries
http://escholarship.org/uc/item/2x00p9zc#page-1

# Evaluation and Optimization of Electoral Systems
https://books.google.com.sg/books?hl=en&lr=&id=A1tNCQg2QKEC&oi=fnd&pg=PR3&dq=integer+optimization+
and+gerrymandering&ots=JwYhhjU5na&sig=_TTEIeGBuyy6oJooxO-2vi7vZwk#v=onepage&q=integer%20optimization%20and%20
gerrymandering&f=false

http://www.illc.uva.nl/COST-IC1205/documents/Caen-2014-Slides/Scozarri.pdf

  1. Can the son solve his father’s unsolved problems in the coming election?
Economy, Population, and Identity are the three key challenges for Singapore.  PM Lee pointed out these challenges for SG100. These are,in fact, the SG50 problems for which his father, the first prime minister of Singapore, found no solutions..

In the coming general election, what can PM Lee offer?  Perhaps, he is offering his new wine in the same old bottle. First, voters must vote in the new wine of fourth generation PAP leaders. And then, Singaporeans should trust their leadership. They then use the same monopoly powers as before to control the press, the population, the economy and the identity.

These are the promises the PAP is offering to Singapore voters. Think twice before you give them your votes.


A well planned review still can’t run away from competition. It is time for change!


EBRC is making use of supercomputer with integer optimization programming to review the boundaries. The new electoral map is yet another masterpiece of distorted democracy in Singapore.


It is to the advantage of the PAP even the PAP tries to downplay it.  But they can’t run away from competitions. The review creates more opportunities for multi-cornered competitions in both single and group representative constituencies.


The PAP wants to create many 4-Tan competitions like the Presidential Election 2011. But the outcome may be like the Punggol East by-election.


Which direction will it go in GE2015?
Is a “Scotland”  in the making in
the East of Singapore?

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bc/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015_(Scotland).svg/691px-United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015_(Scotland).svg.png

Tuesday, 21 July 2015

当选区划分遇上地方效应,傑利蠑螈如何进行?

选区划分到底是怎么一回事?是否如主流媒体报道的一些选区选民人数多,一些人数少,所以才重新划分这么简单。媒体还预测,什么选区会消失,那里会出现新选区,这些都是烟雾,没有让读者看到问题的全面。当然,这种表面功夫更加不是人民行动党头头的选举策略。


选区划分要做到Gerrymandering,还是需要借助电脑来好好的规划一下,我们仔细的回味总理在国会的回答,简直就是电脑语言的反映。不要忘记,总理可以说是C++语言的高手,对于电脑的知识,比部长,比反对党人,更加懂得利用电脑来分析,划分选区。

【委员会将在检讨过程中根据自上一次选区划分后的人口变化与建屋发展,检讨如何将集选区缩小至平均为少于五人的集选区,并确保全国仍至少有12个单选区。 】http://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/singapore/story20150713-502486#sthash.NPk2Dpd4.dpuf

这其实是一道Integer Optimization的运算题。微软的Excel Solver,还是一些高功能的spreedsheet软件,就可以解决这个选区划分的问题。一般上,我们需要输入目的,数据,局限,额外因素等等数据资料,结果就出来。

委员会作为政府部门,当然可以用国家的超级电脑运算。同时,用的软件也是顾问专家特别设计,绝对不会是免费的网上软件。目的就是要达到选区分化行动党化,可以依据总理的意思来完成任务。

目的:
全国的选区数目,考虑人口的增加和组屋人口的变化。
例如:从现有的87议席增加到89议席,3个5人集选区,14个4人集选区,3个三人集选区,13个单选区,总共89个议席。这个例子符合总理的国会发言内容。

{但是,行动党的竞选策略团队,再配合党外的专业咨询,利用超级电脑运算,目的是要尽量少输当赢,尽量把选区划分画得只是输7个议席,即目前失去的议席。他们可以建议选区划分委员会采用他们的建议。 这是一般人看不到的潜规则。}

数据:
“人口变化与建屋发展”的数据,一般人也都知道,最少也能感受到,但是,最重要的还是2011年大选和2011年总统选举的投票数据。投过票的都知道,每一张选票都有一个号码,选民只能在指定的投票站投票。算票的时候,也有区号,区号代表组屋邻里或者私人住屋的投票总数。把这些区号的选票加起来,就是单选区或者集选区的总得票情形。

很少反对党会认真的把这些数据记录下来,选后,选举局也不对人开放。这些数据行动党却早早就在研究,不断的举行电脑预算和预测。

这些选举的数据,原本就是公开的讯息,应该放在选举局的网站上,但是,对于很多反对党来说,要获得这些资料,似乎是向政府要求秘密文件和数字。在谈到委员会是否应该有反对党参与,总理在国会上说我国公务员能够胜任,不然,新加坡将向美国那样造成民主共和两党参与。总理没有说清楚,两党参与,资讯数据才能公开,两方都没有获得好处。新加坡的情形,刚好相反,只有行动党垄断这些数据。

欧美大学里,有很多‘好管闲事’的高材生和大学教授乐意免费为选区委员会服务。如果,委员会把信息、数据公开,目标要求明确,这些人愿意提供运算的解题。但是,这些建议是委员会最不喜欢看到的。政府给的任务是傑利蠑螈,要的是Gerrymandering的结果。

{表面看来,总理指示选区委员会根据人口变化与建屋发展来划分选区。事实上,行动党的策略组,早早就一直在研究这些人口的变化,2011年的选举数据更加是重中之重。两个补选的成绩数字也会加以考虑。这是指标数字,再加上人口变化和组屋人口素质(例如:收入,新公民等),全部都可以放入电脑加以分析,划分出一个最optimal理想的结果。

在电脑的计算下,不单可以划出理想的选区数目,单和集选区的数目,也可以估计投票的情形 - 最后的得票结果。一般上,计算出来的结果相当的精确,很多大企业,运输,厂商,医药治疗,都可以利用这套方法,作为决策的工具。}

局限:
在输入数据时,委员会也要加入一些局限,如总理说的,“将集选区缩小至平均为少于五人的集选区,并确保全国仍至少有12个单选区。” 还有,每个单、集选区的最低和最高选民人数。

当然,也要考虑地域性,例如,东海岸和西海岸两个集选区加起来除二是不行的。也不可能把裕华区和阿裕尼集选区放在一起,但是,把波东巴西区和阿裕尼集选区拉在一起,是有可能的,因为只需要从高文地铁站拉到波东巴西站就可以了。

局限还包括,演算出来的结果,让行动党在每一个选区的得胜票数,例如,最少要获得1000票才算’安全‘。甚至还可以,不计较目前不是行动党的7个议席得票输多少,只要其他选区获胜就可以了。也可以不计较选区的地形,例如,从马林百列到实茏岗这样的怪形。

{这次电脑的计算结果,很可能出现比2011年大选,更加奇怪的选区图形,三角形,圆形,长方形,八角形,什么样的图形都有。目的只有一个,确保行动党能够胜出。就是因为,电脑的科学计算,有些组屋,自1988年开始出现集选区后,一连换了4次集选区的怪现象。这是考虑选民的利益,还是行动党的利益?这次选区划分,很可能出现这种怪现象,这些‘行动党友善’组屋,可以左右选情,拉高安全票。}

20多年来, 加基武吉同样一组组屋,连续换了4个集选区。这是巧合吗?
http://news.asiaone.com/news/singapore/same-blocks-different-wards-kaki-bukit

额外因素和考虑:

电脑的模拟结果,也可以加入新的额外因素。例如: 红包效应,李光耀效应,特大事故的发生,如地铁大瘫痪,社交媒体的不利冲刺。这部分工作,不是一个独立的选区划分委员会的工作,但是,他们作为总理眼中的专家,是否,有这项特别任务,就不得而知了。

{委员会如果真的没有这项任务,行动党的策略组,也会和咨询顾问讨论,把相关的讯息加入。不单如此,在竞选期间,行动党的顾问,也会进行民意调查,每天更新资料,输入电脑做出最新的预测。并且以此作为依据,改变大选的议题。想一想,为何2011年大选,接近投票日,总理向人民道歉。还有,为何李光耀要对阿裕尼集选区选民,发出警告。因为,行动党在预测中,已经看到选举的趋势,希望能够在最后一分钟,改变不利的发展趋势。}

整体和个体分析:

总理在国会的回答,是针对新加坡全国的选区划分,而委员会的主要工作也是如此。但是,对于电脑来说,还是可以再细化选区的划分工作,尤其是个别选区的投票情形的模拟、预测。

或许,总理有把这项特别任务交给委员会,但是,却没有对国会交代。

在整体选区划分后,可以得出一个大概的情形。但是,一些个别选区,尤其是东部的选区,有必要进一步利用电脑来细化分析。这些选区的行动党得票都低于60%,一些不利因素,选民的情绪改变,地方性议题,很可能会改变行动党的命运。

因此,在划分选区后,还要再来一个重估。例如,把阿裕尼,马林百列,东海岸这三个集选区,重新分配,输一个阿裕尼,好过输多一个东海岸。甚至,可以把淡宾尼也加入考虑。当然,也可以考虑单选区的划分,如何降低反对党的胜利机会。丹绒巴葛集选区也可以是一个个案,加上临近的选区,进行细化分析。

小结:

1. 在新加坡,行动党和政府似乎是分不开。因此,选区划分委员会的工作,也就和行动党的选举策略分不开。事实上,委员会和行动党策略组的工作是要分开的。但是,我们往往分不清他们的关系,行动党似乎更加喜欢这种模糊。因此,上面的计算题,可以把两者合一,这是新加坡选民的共识。

2. 美国的Gerrymandering, 民主共和两党都在做。而且,所有的数据资料都是公开的,上网可以看到。有些大学,还利用这些数据作为考试题目的一部分。这和新加坡的情形很不一样。这里的傑利蠑螈是一党独大的垄断工作,甚至是秘密的进行。总理忘记在国会提到美国的数据和资讯是公开的。因此,美国的傑利蠑螈也是公开的在做。

3. 选区划分委员会如果真的要公平公正的进行划分工作,应该把数据和讯息公开。甚至,考虑一个公开的选区划分软件分析比赛。好像绘画比赛,建筑设计比赛,把条件和资料都公开,甚至向全世界公开,邀请参赛者提供一个最理想最公平的选区划分方案。并且,在国会讨论和批准。今天的资讯时代,和免费软件如R, Python, Matlab语言,是可以应付这个挑战。当然,如果奖金丰富,专业顾问公司利用专业软件参与比赛也是很可能。这可以是SG50最好的礼物,行动党敢这么做吗?

4. 电脑的运算和分析,可以是很精准的。这一点,行动党非常清楚,尤其是行动党很喜欢搞数字游戏。动不动就拿出数据,什么GDP,医药保健,公积金,世界排名,等等。但是,运算归运算,人为和地方效应还是可以突破选举结果,不然怎么会有苏格兰现象,槟城现象,台南现象,还有我们自己的阿裕尼突破。

5. 从总体来看,傑利蠑螈对行动党还是很有用的。行动党要的就是继续做政府,因此,地方效应和突发事故可能影响选票,但是,在垄断媒体,讯息,数据和政府资源的背景下,在电脑运算的过程中,尽量减少行动党的损失,这才是选区划分委员会的真正工作。少输当赢应该是行动党的策略,如果只是输7个议席,应该是委员会的功劳,年底可以考虑加委员们花红了。

6. 行动党和委员会的二合体,心里面有一个目标和底线。少输当赢应该怎么算,7+X,7+2X, 7*X,还是可怕的7^X。无论如何,委员会的底线是不可能划出一个让反对党输少赢多的局面。如果出现这个结局,委员们年底不但没有花红,很可能也要走路说拜拜了。  

7. 7后面是加数,乘数,还是倍数,行动党在着急,反对党也着急。选民希望看到一个什么样的突破?还是走回SG50的老路。行动党不希望失去国会三分二优势,反对党希望否决行动党三分二的绝对优势。结果会不会在7和三分一之间徘徊?


#傑利蠑螈(Gerrymander)

https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%82%91%E5%88%A9%E8%A0%91%E8%9E%88