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空城计,死诸葛,行动党还有股息分吗?

2015 PAP Strategy 战略 2

上文提到李光耀作为行动党的诸葛孔明,他的离去,令很多行动党人迷失方向,痛哭更加不用说了。到底李光耀为行动党设计出一套什么制度,导致几十年来,行动党一直胜出, 一党独大。


先说李光耀本身,自从1991年以来,丹戎巴葛集选区就没有出现竞选。即使到了2011年,对手因为技术性原因,迟到几秒,最后还是让李光耀的空城计成功。


集选区的设计,可以说是选举制度中,最成功的例子。名义上是民主选举,一人一票,事实上,大家都知道这是空城计。自从1988年实行以来,的确成功的为行动党做出贡献。但是,这个空城计也有一个缺点,一旦输掉,就失去3个议席。


Singapore Parliamentary General Election 1988   Eunos GRC.png
source: singapore-elections.com


1988年13个设计出来的集选区中,只有10个出现竞选。但是,其中有四个集选区。反对党的得票超过40%。它们是阿裕尼,中峇鲁,勿洛, 和友诺士。工人党几乎在友诺士胜出。中峇鲁其实就是丹戎巴葛集选区的前身。


行动党的诸葛亮就是看到3人一组不行,因此,就把人数增加,他本身领队丹戎巴葛集选区,一直到今天,这个集选区的空城计还在。但是,随着李光耀的离去,丹戎巴葛集选区的接班人,就肯定要面对一场激烈的竞选。这是1988年的情形:


Singapore Parliamentary General Election 1988   Tiong Bahru GRC.png


中峇鲁集选区的刘程强过后转战后港,终于在1991年当选成为议员。接着下来的故事就是历史了。


无论如何,李光耀的空城计还是成功的。他把新加坡的民主化进程延后几十年,也为行动党绝对执政立下汗马功劳。对于行动党人来说,说到这段往事,就会像黄永宏那样眼泪就要落下来。今天的选情,已经没有空城计效应,而行动党本身,也不再有孔明了。


空城计让反对党看着城门却不敢进去。就像孔明坐在城墙上弹琴,司马懿不敢攻进去。李光耀从1991年一直坐到2015年,不但弹琴,还笑看天下。一直到阿裕尼集选区被攻破后,整个空城计的完美设计才被识破。现在,不只是要攻进去,各个反对党还要争着攻进去。


空城计失败了。行动党怎么办?《三国演义》最后说,诸葛亮无法完成统一大业,最后一次出征,还病死。小说写得很精彩,说死的诸葛亮, 还是能够安全的让蜀汉军队回到蜀汉。李光耀已经走了,他如何能够安全的让行动党的军队退守到安全区,不让反对党进一步扩大势力范围。


从黄永宏的反应,李光耀似乎没有留下什么良策。李光耀留下的选区划分,能够确保万无一失吗?理论上看来,选区划分还是可以取到一些作用,尤其是西部选区。


我们在回看1988年的情形。4个反对党得票超过40%的集选区,就有三个在东部。其实再加上淡滨尼集选区的39%,新加坡东部的选情,在1988年的时候,已经可以说是危险的阶段了,反对票高达40%以上。李光耀设计的空城计扩大计划,选区划分,再加上媒体的渲染抹黑,让行动党政权顺顺利利过了几十年好日子。


难怪,主流媒体还在大唱,这是“LKY dividend”李光耀留给行动党的红利股息。到底有没有股息?还剩多少?行动党还有股息可以分给它的候选人吗?


事实上,行动党的股息在3月过后,就开始慢慢的消失。李光耀留给行动党的股息,其实只有两个月。5月过后,行动党政府面对很多负面新闻,从小孩到大人,审计报告,再到地铁事故,拖到现在,红利股息都不见了。所以,行动党的股价也会跟着下跌。李光耀人为超控,利用空城计,选区划分来抬高股价的做法,现在正面对市场的重新评估,如果股市行情不好,就会遇到抛售的压力。


行动党很可能会因为业绩不好,而发不出股息,红利更加不用说了。业绩不好,公司上下就要面对裁员。因此,领导层的头头,就有人要被裁退掉,这就要看作为股民的选民要在股东大会上,做出最后的决定,是否要把整个领导层换掉,还是保留一部分领导?


小结


  1. 行动党继续沿用神算李光耀的空城计和选区划分策略。当年,神算没有建议划分阿裕尼和淡滨尼集选区,是一个败笔(见下)。


  1. 1988年的一级集选区战区,2015年依然是一级战区:
1988集选区
1988反对党得票%
2015集选区
阿裕尼
43.7%(民主党)
阿裕尼
友诺士
49.1%(工人党)
马林百列
勿洛
45.1%(工人党)
东海岸
淡滨尼
39%(团结党)
淡滨尼
惹兰勿刹
37.7%(工人党)
惹兰勿刹
中峇鲁
42.2%(工人党)
丹戎巴葛


3. 历史没有骗人。集选区和选区划分制度虽然延后选民的民主权利,但是,战火依然在东部地区激烈的开展。27年后,当时应该属于选民的,现在是报应的时候了。这或许是国人为先党要在这个战区出现的原因。


4. 2015大选,依然是老牌反对党比较占优势,尤其是工人党。而老选民还是熟悉老牌子。


5. 李显龙保留淡滨尼集选区,恢复惹兰勿刹集选区,似乎认为,还有“死诸葛效应”,可以让行动党安全退兵到这两个集选区。或许说,他认为“李光耀股息”还在,至少2015大选应该安全过关。


6. 正如丹戎巴葛集选区自动当选议员谢世儒自己说的,自动当选很吃亏,缺少选战经历。神算给行动党留下保护网的红利股息,但是,却培养出一支纸上谈兵的军队。

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