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陈庆炎还能保住多少行动党的基本票?



这次总统选举,有一个候选人是一直在失去基本票,他就是陈庆炎。其他三位候选人,则一直在抢他的票。因此,陈庆炎是否能够胜选,就要看他流失多少基本票,和行动党最后剩下的基本盘有多大。

一般的看法是,反对党在5月大选的40%反对票,陈庆炎几乎是不可能获得。因此,他只能保护他的60%行动党的支持票。由于受到行动党的拖累,再加上总统竞选是非政党的政治竞选,选民不会有5月大选时出现谁执政的困扰,所以,敢敢投陈庆炎以外的候选人的可能性很高。

基本盘剩下6070%?即使50%,仍可胜选

基本盘如果剩下6070%,就意味着,陈庆炎仍然可以获得3642%的总体得票,这个百分比,在四角战中,依然有获胜的机会,最怕是如果只获得五成的行动党支持者的选票, 那么,就是总体得票的30%,这就是一个相当危险的得票率了。

陈庆炎有没有可能只获得30%的整体选票,而导致落选的不幸命运,这个问题很难回答。即使是只获得30%的总体得票,还是可能选胜,因为,其他对手,最高得票者最多也只获得20%多的选票。这不是险胜,而是行动党的虽然胜了,也有如败了。对其他三位候选人,却是,虽败犹荣。

60% 的假象

事实上,行动党也知道,他们在五月大选的得票,并非真正的
60%,应该是低于60%。这是因为,有些的选区的反对党候选人,素质并不如理想,把整体行动党的得票拉高了。因此,这次总统选举,由于是全国性,其结果,更加具有代表性,更能反映民意和民心。

但是,以60%作为一个指标,仍然有其参考价值。

假定反对党在5月大选的得票40%,也适用在这次的总统选举,一旦,有办法,把这些票都集中在一个人身上,再加上,拉多一些行动党的支持者的票,反而能够获胜。只是,正如媒体报道的一样,在互联网的讨论情形也一样,这些总数占一半以上的反陈庆炎的票,将分散在三个候选人的身上,单独一人要获得30%的选票,谈何容易。

在《全民总统之变数合格书》http://pijitailai.blogspot.com/2011/07/blog-post_07.html的博文中, 我曾经讨论有可能出现四角战,这是对行动党最有利的局面,不幸言中。当总统选举委员会决定发出四张合格书时,他们所考虑的问题是,怎样分散选票,造成对行动党所钦定的候选人陈庆炎有利。四角战和三角战比较,四角战对陈庆炎更为有利。

陈庆炎何其不幸,要为行动党的恶果背书

陈庆炎背着闪电招牌出场,是一定要要为行动党过去执政时的对与错的结果背书的。他在星期四的一个‘总统候选人面对面’的会议http://theonlinecitizen.com/2011/08/toc-presidential-face-to-face-video-preview/ 为内安法辩护就是一个例子。虽然总统选举,原本是超越政治的,但是,作为政府的前成员之一(副总理),好多有关政治的问题,是不能不回答的。

还有他孩子的奖学金问题,孩子国民服役的问题,管理政府投资公司的亏损问题,政府的决策问题,他都不可能逃避,在这次总统选举中都会算到他的头上。不是,其他部长议员的孩子没有这些问题,而是陈庆炎出来竞选总统,他就要面对这些指责。他想要逃也逃不了。不只逃不了,他还要替政府背书,替政府辩护,替行动党说话。

因此,说总统选举是超越政治可以,但是要逃避政治,政府决策的对错讨论,却是怎么也逃不了的。

所以,在网上,陈庆炎有点像过街老鼠,人人要追着来打,着来骂。陈庆炎何其不幸,成了行动党的代罪羔羊,成为讨伐行动党政策的出气筒。

但是,凭着行动党的巨大竞选机器,动用民间,社团和政府的行政资源来协助陈庆炎,最终,他获选的机会还是四人中最高的。因为,除了陈庆炎外,恐怕没有其他候选人能够有足够的竞选代理人,分布到全国所有投票中心和计票中心来监督和监票。

这样多的 支持和协助,陈庆炎有没有可能落选?

在《全民总统之真假候选人》博文中,
我曾经把陈庆炎的出场形容为巴西,而其他三位候选人只能是一些不知名的小国。小国如何能够战胜巴西?行动党就是要把选战提高到世界杯的水平,就是要以声势压倒对方三位候选人。

名气高,士气低, 有人退选吗?

以陈庆炎在国内外的名气和声势,的确如此,同时,他又是一个能够担任总理的人选,论资格,其他三人,的确不能跟他比,但是,他的民气却是最低的。想想看,巴西队也不是每一届都获得冠军,尤其是,现在,士气低迷,说不准,其他三位中的一位,能够脱颖而出,爆冷击败陈庆炎。

因为,有人预测,行动党的铁票,只有30%,而反对党的铁票大约只有25%。其余的中间浮动选民,将左右这次总统选举的结果。陈庆炎铁定中选未免言之过甚。未来几天,还会出现变化,说不准,最后一分钟,有人退出竞选。


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