Thursday, 18 August 2011

Will Cheng Bock withdraw from the race for the good of Tony?

Will Cheng Bock withdraw from the race for the good of Tony?

Do you really believe there will be a 4-corner contest?  And no one will withdraw from the race at the last minute?   Let wait and see how the drama will be ended.  May be there are more surprises to come.

It is very difficult to define an election, especially for the top post of a country to be non-political. Even a debate on academic topics, an argument on philosophical ideas, or the competition of the post of CEO, all involve politics and strategies.

Example of election strategies

If you look at our neighbour, Malaysia, there are always multi-corners contests in their elections. Some times, there are even up to 5 or 6 contestants.
And just before polling day, you will see 1, 2 or 3 even 4 contestants announce their withdrawal from the race.

Why do they do that?  This is ensure the preferred choice of ruling party (or even the oppositions) having a better chance to win the race.  Deposits and other expenses are not important issues.  But winning the election needs skilled strategies. Some sacrifices, either personal image or money, are less important and end result of a win is crucial.

Another example is Aljunied GRC.

Indications of below par performance  

Cheng Bock’s performance at the ST Roundtable is quite disappointed, especially the first question on the President’s salary. He seems to suggest there are ‘quite” a lot of works for the Elected President as suggested by President Nathan.

Even his nomination day speech is not impressive. He wants to promote multi-racialism and be the unifying figure to achieve this goal.   Doesn’t he forget in the Singapore National Pledge, we clearly pledge ourselves as one united people, regardless of race, language or religion?

Anyway, when Cheng Bock first announced his interest to run for the President, his main purpose is to prevent a walkover. He has no intention to win the race.  A little bit like Chua Kim Yew when he stood in the EP contest. Later on, he moved his position to unifying people. But his determination of a win is not as strong as Tony or Jee Say.

Cheng Bock has in fact completed his mission as on August 27, there is a contest on the Elected President in Singapore. We should thank him for a mission completed.

His below bar performance may be an intention to let Tony to score points. If the PAP supporters are disappointed with him, most of the disappointed votes will go to Tony rather than Kin Lian or Jee Say.  Even half of it goes to Tony will be enough for a win.

Survey and feedback

Besides openly supporting Tony, the PAP machinery is not idling.  They are monitoring the feedback, the reaction and conducting survey likes the one, days before GE2011 by an Australian company. 

Due the size of the whole population and the involvement of all voters, the samples collected and the margin of errors in this survey can be further improved. The Australian company can even better their job this time as the survey result will be more accurate than the GE2011 one statistically saying.    

Cheng Bock is making his move intentionally or unintentionally that we don’t know. But this will help the PAP to observe the feedback and reactions from the voters.  Everyday, the PAP will need to make a strategic move, that include the last minute withdrawal of Cheng Bock. Cheng Bock’s votes although is small but a win of one vote is a win.

Next to Tony, Cheng Bock is the one closely associated to the PAP.  We can not rule out the emotion factor.  If the PAP elders request his sacrifice and he believes his sacrifice is good for Singapore, good for unifying Singaporeans, then why not?

In returns, the PAP can promise him to promote football and multi-racism and others (he can name them).  This is a win-win for him and Tony.    

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