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从政治层面看,工人党或许是这次总统选举的赢家


这个说法,好像有点无厘头。不是说,总统选举是非政治性的竞争吗?怎么工人党这个并无直接涉入这次选举的政党,会是赢家呢?恰好就是这个局外人的身份,反而捞到旁观者清的好处。

首先,工人党是唯一没有在这次总统选举中下注的政党。工人党不赞成民选总统制,认为应该恢复到以前的国会委任制度。行动党和其他主要反对党都有参与这次总统选举,尤其是民主党,团结党和人民党。

行动党底牌进一步暴露出来

行动党下的注是陈庆炎,虽然胜利了,但有如败了,得票只有35%。底牌给人看清楚了,什么地方强,什么地方弱,已经再度暴露出来了。虽然不能说支持率从5月大选的60%降到35%。但是,说行动党的支持率已经跌到50%以下,应该不为过分。

还记吗?工人党在5月大选的整体竞选的23个选区的平均得票率是46%。这是反对党中最高的。所以,在这些选区,工人党和行动党的得票会是非常接近,只要工人党能够吸引到好像陈硕茂这样的人才,胜选的机会非常高。

下次大选,工人党肯定会在东部继续扩张领土,参选的选区也会超过5月大选的数目。这是他们朝向长期执政的计划的一部分工作。同时,这要看吸纳人才的速度。林瑞莲在出任阿裕尼-后港市镇会主席时说,她希望招收更多人才为工人党效劳。因此,下次大选,参选人数肯定会有所增加。如果,以中选人数来说,工人党在5月的选举中,中选的比率为26% 6/23),如果包括非选区议员,则高达接近35%

背着工人党旗帜参加选举,虽然不一定能够胜选,但是,有机会中选却是不争的事实。如果你是有分量的候选人,又要走中庸路线,不想穿上闪电的白衣,那蓝衣最适合。

陈清木的路线接近工人党

除了陈如斯和陈庆炎以外,走中庸路线的其他两位候选人是陈清木和陈钦亮 (虽然有时激进,但并非完全激进)。由于陈钦亮得票太低,所以,以陈清木为中间路线的代表。

工人党的做法是在体制内竞争,没有挑战宪法或进行体制外的抗争。虽然,不满集选区制度,不满选区划分,不满建屋局和人协,但是,基本,只要是体制内的竞争,工人党就以体制内的规矩来竞争。阿裕尼集选区的竞争就是一个例子。

陈清木的做法和选战策略有着工人党的影子,有点像。他没有挑战总统在宪法下的职权。甚至在一些敏感课题,如内安法,总统的薪金,储备的监督,都没有挑战现有制度的想法,都是按着宪法,法律走。

还有,他们同样有着成熟和稳重的特色。

工人党还有一个不好听的外号:行动党有意栽培的反对党。因为,它没有为反对而反对,没有挑战制度的做法,使到它看起来,好像一个没有抗争力的政党。而这种做法,看起来是行动党能够接受,人民也能够接受的角色。

行动党栽培的反对党 这个外号好还是不好?

‘行动党有意栽培的反对党’,像不像陈清木的角色,反过来说,如果陈清木当选总统,行动党或多或少也能接受,新加坡选民也能接受。如果,有一天,工人党当选做政府,行动党也无话可说,选民也能够接受。

难怪,在一次研讨会上,工人党议员毕丹星说出,一旦行动党和工人党都没有取得国会的大多数,两党有可能合作组成联合政府,而不是和其他反对党组成联合政府。虽然,后来,毕丹星做出腾清,但是,从理念来说,可能工人党和行动党的理念更为接近。反而和其他反对党不接近。

怕输的中间选民选中庸之道
                 
这个理念上的接近,有其好处,也有坏处。好处是,选民既然敢投陈清木,也敢投工人党,即使让工人党执政,也不会离中庸路线太远。坏处是这个外号,实在不好听,有如走狗。

新加坡选民的怕输心里,在这次总统选举中也得到证明。不喜欢陈庆炎的行动党色彩,但是,又害怕陈如斯的过于激进,因此,陈清木的中间路线最适合。如果,这种怕输心理继续维持到下次大选,工人党的机会是很高的。

况且,行动党的一个致命的地方是,人才难寻,很难想象它能够找到足够的议员人选,和工人党硬拼。如果,继续拿像杨荣文这样人才和工人党硬拼,两败俱伤,反而让一些小的反对党得利。这个算盘根本就不化算。因此,未来行动党的主力战将将不可能放在工人党竞选的选区。

工人党和陈清木的东西新加坡合作

工人党势力范围是在岛国东部。陈清木在总统选举中,在东部没有绝对优势,有些地方,甚至陈庆炎和陈如斯领先。但是,在西部地区,陈清木的得票却处于领先的地步。这表示,工人党的支持者没有绝对的支持陈清木。如果,总统选举选前,工人党暗地呼吁它的46%支持者全体投陈清木,今天的陈总统很可能不是陈庆炎。

在没有工人党的指引下,工人党支持者把票投给了陈如斯和陈清木。很可能陈如斯还多一点。不然,陈如斯不可能获得25%的票,因为,他在西部的得票基本上低于25%

如果工人党能够获得陈清木支持者的合作和支持,工人党的西进计划,可能有望提早完成。虽然说总统选举是非政治性的,但是,用人和策略,还是一样的。这股力量,不用白不用,久而久之,也会消失。况且,陈清木和工人党理念上没有冲突。

这只是一个构想,需要政治智慧来完成。

另一个获利的反对党是人民党。该党的两位中委力挺陈清木。因此,据说,陈清木在波东巴西区领先其他候选人。人民党也是走中间路线,但是,由于地盘太小,(甚至没有地盘),因此,即使,陈清木支持者跟它合作,效果也不大。

至于陈如斯,和支持他的民主党和团结党,到底是赢还是输呢?下文再讨论。

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