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Presidential Election is a Game Plan. What is Tan Kim Lian trying to do?

 Presidential Election is a Game Plan.

What is Tan Kim Lian trying to do?


In the unique Singapore presidential election, getting a certificate to contest starts before everything else.   It is a guessing game.   Hence, the game plan begins earlier before the nomination day.


To avoid a walkover, Tan applies for the certificate.  There is no clear answer whether Ng Kok Song or George Goh will get the certificates.  They are not ex-ministers, top civil servants, CEOs of $500 million capital companies.  No one is sure they will get a certificate. 


Tan stands a better chance due to his former company, NTUC Income which has more than $500 million capital.   Again, it is not sure whether he will get the certificate. 


The guessing game also has to consider public perceptions and Singapore international standing.  A walk over is very unlikely.  So, the game plan is to have a contest but how many candidates is the ideal strategy?


Perhaps, we need to do a computer simulation.  Is the repeat of 2011 PE a good answer? A win is a win even one vote win is a win.  So, 4 candidates is good for the establishment.  


Tan says he is willing to make the sacrifice and if Ng or Goh or both get the certificate.   He will be absent on nomination day.  His intention of no walkover has been achieved.  


What will be the game plan for a 3-corner election?  

Even if the pro-establishment Tharman gets less than 50%, Ng and Goh will still lose.  A similar situation of PE 2011 where Tan Kin Lian’s share to be divided by three. 


Ng and Goh will have to sit down to discuss and negotiate who is the best candidate.  Only in a one-to-one contest, there is a chance to beat the pro-establishment candidate.  The chosen candidate may offer some adversarial roles to the other.  Same can also offer to Tan for a role to advise on inflation, housing and jobs. 


Only the combined votes of the non-establishment candidates can win the election.  We should not use the word ‘anti-establishment’ as the president cannot check and has to work together with the government to bring better life to Singaporeans. 

  

Tharman has a better reputation than Tony.  But it is not sure he can get more than 50% votes.  If he can only manage 40% to 49%, he will lose in a one-to-one contest.  

The game plan is in a multi-cornered contest, Tharman is likely to win.  In a one-to-one contest, there is a possible upset.   Ng, Goh and Tan should not criticise each other before and after the nomination day.   Tan’s game plan is straight forward, he is willing to drop off from the race.  Will Ng or Goh make the same sacrifice? 


It will be a disaster for the PAP if Tharman loses in a one-to-one contest.  Worse, it is a catastrophe in a multi-corner contest.    

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