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尚达曼落选,PAP信心崩盘? 有没有可能 出现树倒猢狲散的悲剧吗?

 尚达曼落选,PAP信心崩盘?

有没有可能

出现树倒猢狲散的悲剧吗?


什么叫做信心崩盘?看一看巫统和国民党,就知道信心崩盘是什么一回事。支持者没有信心,也无法单独执政,只能陪跑,做做啦啦队。基层缺乏信心,没有方向,资源给别人用,才能发挥最大功效。


如果陈庆炎在2011年无法勉强当选,人民行动党的信心在那个时候,已经崩盘。因为,在2011年的国会选举,反对党取得集选区的突破,把行动党的第一道防线冲破。如果,陈庆炎再落选,第二道防线也跟着失守。


了解到第二道防线的重要性,行动党想尽各种方法,利用国会和修法,延迟第二道防线被突破的可能。因此,就出现了印度人被定义为马来人的自动当选的闹剧。但是,闹剧无法再来一次,不然成为国际笑柄,投资信心会下跌。


为了防备第二道防线被击破,行动党不得不推出强棒尚达曼出来。在整个第三代领导中,尚达曼给人的印象最好,高于李显龙,被认为最适合的总理人选。在行动党‘总理不可以为非华人’的教条下,新加坡人还是觉得尚达曼适合出任总理。可见,尚达曼是一个可以被接受的人选。


强棒出击,即使自动当选,人们也无可非议。不过,如果候选人中出现具有资格的候选人,如陈钦亮,就不得不进行选举。如果是一对一,行动党的基本盘未必能够让尚达曼中选。看来,这次很可能出现多角战。


因此,尚达曼是否会和陈庆炎一样,运气一样好,勉强中选?如果不幸落选,行动党的信心将会崩盘。这是一场豪赌,行动党不可以输,输不起。尤其是当下的行动党,面临内忧外患的困境,一旦输了,基层,支持者的信心就溃败,想要重新建立,非常困难。


尚达曼如果真的输了,树倒猢狲散的悲剧将无可避免的发生。一个弱势的行动党,和渐渐强大的反对党,对新加坡的将来,将产生什么影响、后果?行动党很可能会以这个结局来警告选民,投错票,将会影响未来的新加坡。但是,投对票,又是否有所改变?



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