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从NUSS政治对话会看9个反对党2015大选的命运

2015 PAP Strategy 战略 14 -- 以逸待劳策略?

(接上一篇)


简单分析一下各个政党的表现,我们来预测一下他们的大选结果:

A 中规中矩:民主党,工人党,行动党
B 接近中规中矩:国人为先党,新加坡人民党,民主进步党
C 中规中矩以下:革新党,新加坡团结党,民主联盟,人民力量党

对话会主持人说的好,所有10位代表,能够站出来说话,应该值得肯定和鼓励。这种为新加坡人的利益而站出来的勇气,我们要给与万分的尊重和掌声。

属于C级的政党,应该在这次大选中,无法突破。他们竞选的31个议席将全部为行动党获得。革新党(11),新加坡团结党(11),民主联盟(6),人民力量党(4)。

属于B级的政党,是否有机会突破?这里有18个议席:国人为先党(10),新加坡人民党、民主进步党(合共8)。如果以五五对分来计算,应该是18/2=9. 作为一个新党,国人为先党是比较吃亏的,乐观一点,以40%做为基数。而新加坡人民党,2011的平均得票率为41%(碧山-大巴窑比较高些43%)。如果反风只有5%,或许在这一组,反对党只有一个议席获胜。因此,反风必须高达10%,才可能有机会取得7 到12个议席。

在比较了,B和C级后,行动党已经是接近执政党了。如果是5%反风,行动党是当然执政了。31+17= 48. 只是未过2三分二绝对多数。10%反风,则行动党议席介于 38 (31+8)和42(31+11)之间。

A级的情形(39席),还是对行动党有利。2011年民主党的平均得票率为36.8%(荷兰-武吉知马39%)。这是在抹黑的情形下的得票反应。但是,我们把民主党2011年的基数提高到全国水平的40%((荷兰-武吉知马44%)。5%的反风,对于民主党来说,还是不足够。民主党还是一个零数。民主党需要7到10%的反风,才能取得突破。不过,这也只是4/5席的突破而已。

工人党的情形比较乐观,5%反风对于2011年平均得票率46%的工人党来说,可以取得半数的席位。28/2=14. 如果得票出现不平均分配,可能大好,可能大坏。大坏则是回归原位,只得7席。大好则可能获得18席(5+1+1+4+1+5+1)。5%反风不足够让工人党获得28席。工人党需要10%的反风。

A,B,C三级结算起来,行动党是当然执政。5%反风,即行动党获得55%平均率,最后行动党还是执政,同时也很可能拥有国会的绝对大多数。更何况,如果没有反风,情形对反对党更加不利。

结论

  1. 从对话会的表现,我们有了ABC的三级差别,如果真的出现5%反风,每一个反对党的得票率也不平均。C级可能没有增加或者小幅度增加,在40%左右浮动。B级政党会有中幅度的增加,在45%左右浮动。而A级政党,民主党会有比较高的增加幅度,工人党处于中幅度增加。平均得票率接近50%,民主党会低一些。
  2. 行动党除了突然有了爱心,突然拥抱民主外,它还警告选民,新加坡过去的努力,繁荣,成就和长期利益将会因为反对党的强大而发生变化。行动党最喜欢说,选错人,国家将会倒退。这种危言众听就是要骗选票。新加坡选民如果一直不给反对党机会,坚信行动党的假民主,那么,就是把自己和孩子的将来,交给一个变色龙行动党政府。
  3. 想一想,在荷兰-武吉知马集选区,当行动党的沈颖遇到民主党的保罗· 淡比雅教授,我们会忍心放弃民主党吗?当工人党严燕松在东海岸集选区遇上行动党林瑞生时,选民是否再次不大力支持工人党呢?在丹戎巴葛集选区,当国人为先党陈如斯遇到行动党的陈振声,在碧山-大巴窑集选区,人民党、民主进步党的方月光遇到行动党的样莉明时,在蒙巴登单选区,当人民党的张媛容遇上同为律师的行动党林谋泉时,选民应该毫不犹豫的选择反对党。不要忘记,当工人党的余振忠在马林百列遇到行动党陈川仁的时候,选民可要珍惜,敢敢投工人党一票。
  4. 出席对话会的9个反对党,他们的代表勇敢的站出来和行动党候选人竞选,选民要给予肯定和大力支持。况且,这些都是反对党里的人才。选了他们,将会鼓励更多的人才加入反对党,这能够确保新加坡的利益。正如,对话会有关民主制度和有效政府的讨论,这两者是可以平行的。不是,行动党一直鼓吹的新加坡只有一只行动党管理队伍。
  5. 明确投选反对党,即使这么做,也未必能够否决行动党三分二的绝对数。因为,2011年,反风只有6%。2015大选,前总统候选人陈欣亮也只是预测反风为7%。这些都是比较乐观的看法。万一,七月幽灵出现,反而对行动党有利,一党独大继续下去。


敢敢选择AB级的反对党,他们代表的是民主(民主,民主进步)和新加坡人(工人,国人和人民)。这是行动党缺少的,而又做不到的。行动党只会利用假民主来欺骗新加坡人。50年来如一日,现在,它还想多一个50年不变。新加坡的真民主和真人民受得了吗?

因此,选民在来临的大选要敢敢的选择反对党。2011的大选课题并没有解决,而新的问题又来了。对话会的一个结论是行动党,一党独大无法解决新加坡的未来问题。把所有的鸡蛋都放在行动党的篮子是一项危险的投资。

50年来,选民错过太多机会,现在就是行动的时候了。

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