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3%年经济成长率,对新加坡是什么概念?这或许,即是事实,也是政府的公关行销策略


李总理认为未来10年,如果我们能够保持每年3%的年经济增长,这对新加坡来说,将会是一个“好的10年”。因此,对新加坡人民来说,这意味着什么?相对过去50年的高经济增长,国人是否能够在低经济增长的环境下,生活的更为写意?

那就要看个人,个别家庭如何定义生活,定义人生了。经济增长放慢,收入也将不会像以前那样,年年期望加薪,年年有花红,有些人可能还要面对减薪,失业的问题。人生态度的调整,心态的改变,实际的期望等等都将面临挑战,如何面对这些问题,不同的个人和家庭,将会做出不同的反应。

3%的经济增长,有时真的看不出什么东西。美国的经济过去经常在3%上下前进,欧洲则更低些。因此,当你到欧美游玩时,你常常感到10年如一日,好像没有大的改变。偶尔,会看到一些新的建筑物,新的地标,但是,地铁巴士还有这些设施的车站,好像没有更新,甚至还发出杂声。

或许,我们会好很多,因为,我们的国库还有盈余,新元坚挺,个人公积金里也有钱,不至于像洋人那样生活吧?但是,万一没有这些呢?没有外汇储备盈余,没有公积金,没有坚挺的新元,那真的活得比洋人还差的多了。这样的生活,要怎样做调整,要怎样面对?

3%增长很可能是事实

李总理,就事论事,我国经济每年3%的增长,的确可能是事实,可能性还蛮高的。总理已经说了,年年能够取得3%,未来10年已经算是一个好的10年了。因为,将来的国际竞争将更为严峻,我们又面对人口和土地发展的局限,政府也将严格控制外劳和移民的数目,这些因素加在一起,低经济增长的时代也将随着而来。

低经济增长,也将会延续高经济增长留下来的问题,贫富不均,中年失业,医药,住屋等等问题。甚至可以这么说,问题可能更加严重。美国就是一个例子,目前的就业,房贷,金融,医药保险,养老,教育等等问题,也都是一种延续。但是,美国现在的谈判条件差了,国力差了,信心也差了。

低经济增长的代价

上述这些都是事实,为何说这也是政府的公关说辞呢?行销宣传呢?总理的意思似乎告诉人们,为了迎合国人的要求,限制外劳和移民人数,我国基础设施的负荷已经到了饱和的地步,国人投诉公共交通拥挤,住屋问题跟不上,所以,国人要求放慢经济步伐,政府顺应民情,放缓经济发展,到时,国人就要调整降低薪金,工作,经商机会的要求。经济的发展是两面的,不能一面要求低的经济增长,另一面,又要求高薪金,多的工作和经商机会。

因此,如果这是人民的选择,行动党政府是会听,并落力进行。但是,人民也要面对这种选择的后果,到时,不要怪政府没有预先给予警告,警惕国人低经济增长的不良后果。

谁最能处理低经济增长问题和照顾人民

行动党政府是个搞高经济增长的能手,他们对过去的经济增长沾沾自喜,非常满意,样样要以世界第一自居。这的确是行动党的贡献,不可否认。因此,我们就要问一问,高经济增长带来的问题,没有解决,延续到低经济增长的时代,行动党还有能力解决这些问题吗?

一个在高经济增长时代住惯大房子的人,一下子,要搬到低经济增长环境里的小房子里去住,行动党能够习惯吗?还是,习惯小房子生活,了解人民实际情形,在压迫求存的条件下力求更新的在野党呢?

所以,在低经济增长的年代,行动党如果无法自我改变,真心的聆听,结果将是改朝换代。正如,李总理所谓的‘好的10 年’之后,政府无法解决高经济增长延续下来的问题后,也就只好退位让贤了。只是,此贤未必是行动党了。

富不过三代,李总理自认是行动党第三代领导人,目前正在积极找寻第四代领导人,这个是否是个预言呢?树倒猢狲散的开始呢?

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