Skip to main content

流离中间选民有多少将取决于候选人的背景和素质

  
到底流离浮动选民的比率是多少?45% 还是35%

政策研究院的调查说是45.5%,而根据总统选举的实际投票率看来,有可能是34.85%。这两个比率都很可能是对的。因为,能不能够吸引流离的中间选民的票,在很大程度上取决于候选人的素质和背景。

陈清木的行动党背景,再加上他本身的高素质,因此,才能获得如此的高票。反之,如果,这个行动党的B队人选是马宝山或是黄根成,很可能连按柜金都保不住。如果是,换成是形象较好的杨荣文,真的很可能中选。因为,和陈庆炎相比,杨荣文不只能获得流离票,肯定也能够吸引到反对票。

以此对照,反对党的代表,如果不是陈如斯,而是陈硕茂,那结果真的是不一样了。陈硕茂不只能够获得反对票,中间的流离票也会大有收获。

当然, 这是事后孔明,而政治的变数也就在这里。

行动党如何选定陈庆炎作为正牌代表

陈庆炎在623日正式宣布参选总统,那么行动党是怎么钦定保皇派的陈庆炎,而放弃温和派的杨荣文。当时,陈如斯还没有宣布参选。因此,我们,只能考虑三人:陈庆炎,陈清木和陈钦亮。

在这之前,有几个可能行动党候选人的人选,他们是那丹,阿都拉,贾古玛和杨荣文。
根据政策研究院的数据,投行动党的保守选民只有23.3%。行动党就必须考虑谁能够吸引到流离的中间选民和反对票。

表:2011年大选的保守,流离和反对选民比例和行动党候选人吸引选票的可能:


保守
流离
反对
2011大选
23.3%
45.5%
31.3%
那丹(连任)
23.3%
0
0
阿都拉
23.3%
0
0
贾古玛
23.%
0
0
杨荣文
23.3 +
+
+
陈庆炎
23.3 +
+
0
吴作栋
23.3 +
+
+

那丹(寻求连任),阿都拉和贾古玛在对上陈清木和陈钦亮时,不只拿不到反对票,连中间的流离票可能都拿不到。因此,这三人都不被选中,作为行动党的代表的出来竞选总统。除非选举局只发出一张合格书给那丹,阿都拉或是贾古玛。但是,有鉴于国际的舆论压力,以及民选总统机制的运作和适用性,这就使到行动党必须考虑到,无论如何,都有必要进行总统选举。

因此,考虑到温和派的杨荣文,甚至温和派的大将吴作栋。这两个人,都可以拉到流离和反对票。吴作栋只能用来作学术讨论,他刚再度中选为国会议员,而且,马林百列集选区,还要靠他来支持着。

保皇派的代表配合保皇派的总理

那么,为何杨荣文,最后决定放弃参选呢?是不是他的温和派形象,而行动党希望有一个保皇派的代表来配合保皇派的总理,还是杨荣文害怕面对再度落选的压力,不愿参选,这个就不得而知了。杨荣文的确是被考虑的行动党人选之一,因为,他在国会议席选举中落马后,在记者会上,就表示不考虑参选总统,但是,在5月底出国前,也在脸书上说在考虑这个参选的问题,最终,他还是没有参选。

杨荣文在做出不参选的决定后,陈庆炎就出马了。行动党最后选定陈庆炎,因为他和那丹,阿都拉,贾古玛相比较强势多了。拉不到反对票,也可以拉到中间的流离票。总统选举的结果也证实了这一点。但是,对于能够获得多少中间的流离票,才能确保陈庆炎中选,行动党的把握和信心并不是那么高。

当然,行动党也在考虑要发出2张还是3张合格书。坊间也在议论,到底陈庆炎是否自动当选,还是发出2张或3 张合格书来进行总统选举。

【早知如此,真的应该发出一张合格书,因为,陈庆炎的资历的确比其他候选人都高出很多,选民虽然有怨言,大部分都会同意陈庆炎的确有资格做总统,而网上的传言,在主流媒体不报的情形下,知道的人也不多。但是,现在选举的结果出来,却让陈庆炎非常的尴尬。而行动党的底线也暴露出来。】

陈如斯参选,行动党看到转机

一直到陈如斯在715日宣布参选,行动党才看到转机。因为,三角战未必能够胜选,四角战,应该对行动党钦定的候选人陈庆炎有利。果然,选举局最后是发出四张合格书。

陈如斯获得合格书有些令人意外,当然陈钦亮最失望,他认为陈如斯条件不够,不会获得合格书,并且他形容,这是他人生的最低点之一。

行动党难道没有考虑到有人获得合格书后会放弃参选吗?事实上,当四张合格书发出后,陈钦亮的确有暗示会和其他两位候选人讨论。但是,行动党的估算,即使,陈钦亮退出,他的票就会分散到陈清木和陈如斯身上去。陈庆炎即使没有得到这些票,也不会为此而失去基本票。而凭着这些基本票,陈庆炎就会当选。

当然,如果不幸,陈庆炎落选,温和派的陈清木仍然比陈如斯来得好,只要陈清木能够拉到流离的中间票,不是陈庆炎,就是陈清木中选。

为何陈如斯无法中选?

陈如斯和支持他的民主党,在加上部分团结党的支持,无论如何,基本盘都太少。陈如斯个人的从政经验非常短,算起来都没有半年,再加上,民主党和团结党没有地盘,名气也不是反对党中最高的。民主党在主流媒体的宣传下,是一个令人有些害怕的政党。这些因素,都对陈如斯不利。

反观,陈庆炎和陈清木,一个的地盘在北部,另一个在西部。陈庆炎后来居上,就是靠着北部的票源。陈如斯即使在反对党选区,都无法领先陈庆炎和陈清木。

其实,反对党这次也是有胜选的机会。但是,这个候选人必须走中间路线,同时,获得工人党的支持,因为,只有在工人党的支持下,这个反对派的代表,就能在东部领先,陈庆炎和陈清木的得票就会下降,最后,鹿死谁手,就不得而知了。运气好的话,说不准就是反动派代表中选。

但是,反动派到那里找这个代表人物做候选人呢?又如何确保这个人一定能获得合格书呢? 倒不如,集中力量冲刺下一次的国会大选,把握不是更高吗?

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Sub-standard PAP and the Singapore education system

I make a 'policy shift' when I hear the debate of right politics, constructive politics and sub-standard opposition. My original aim is to discuss about “Su Dongbo, Zhang Juzheng and Singapore education system”. The discussion will end with a sub-standard PAP, in particular from the assessment of the quality of PAP potential candidates. Another policy shift is to discuss it like a play, a drama and make it more entertainment rather than a sub-standard political discussion. Act 1 Gangster’s demand Imagine a sense in the Hong Kong's gangster movie (or a godfather movie), the gangsters' master is shouting at his poor opponent and demand him to give a price for his wrong act. The poor guy without any resources can only offer his body or his service to work for the master. Back in his own chamber, the master is still not satisfied and continues to shout 'don't play, play, you think you are hero, you think you are tiger, or superstar or acting ...

EBRC objectives: Stop “Out of Aljunied”, Stop SDP Breakthrough and “Negative-Asset” Ministers.

First of all, we have to congratulate the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee for creating more competitions, especially, multi-cornered competitions in the East. When making changes, EBRC aims to achieve 3 goals: To prevent “Out of Aljunied” for Workers’ Party.  This is the most important objective. To prevent Singapore Democratic Party making any breakthrough in the North and Central.   To look for a solution to retire “negative-asset” ministers or reduce PAP damages. From the reported claims from different political parties, we will expect multi-cornered contests not only in single constituencies but also in group representative constituencies. The PAP hopes to have a repeat of 2011 Presidential Election. Then Tony Tan won the Presidency when he got only 35% of the votes, a narrow win.However, a win is still a win. He did in even in the very last minute, after recounts of votes.    How to achieve multi-cornered contests? By i...

Is Prism Project Another Central Planning of the PAP?

There are 3 scenarios under the Prism Project#1 of Institute of Public Policy.  However, it looks more like the central scenario planning of the People’s Action Party. From the instructional menu of Prism Project Primer #2, participants were guided to a situation in 2022 and they have to imagine, within the Primer framework, to come out with 3 possible scenarios in Jun-Aug 2012.  2022. What a coincidence! Not long ago, PM Lee declared that he would like to hold the prime minister post for another 10 years. The other coincidence is the similarity between the 3 scenarios and the candidates of PE2011. How competitive and sustainable are the 3 scenarios to the people of Singapore and to the PAP?   Will the scenarios produce competitive and sustainable Singapore, Singaporeans or the PAP?  Perhaps, as what the Chinese say: planning cannot always catch up with changes.   And planning sometimes turns out the wrong, bad and unexpected results, espec...