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风中的承诺,后港补选的政治筹码考量



后港补选将会到来,但是,犹如在风中向你高喊一样,补选来了,听到来了,但是不知几时,高声喊过去,几时几时,在风中只听到不知道不知道,然后,其他的就听不清楚了。因为,总理还在盘算着,到底自己还有多少政治筹码,可以在后港补选中赌上一把。

总理说不知道补选时间,还没有决定,他的理由是:
【在决定补选日期时,他会把相关因素考虑在内,包括后港居民的利益、国家议程上的课题,以及影响国家繁荣及安全的国际形势。(早报 310日)】

同情总理风中的承诺

我们真的应该同情总理,在风雨飘摇的国际形势下,在国内不满的声中,要做出这么困难的决定。因此,现在,只能给国人一个暂时的交代,等风平浪静后,再来定下一个时间。虽然,有人要高庭做出决定,为时间下一个定义----三个月为限,但是,总理在国会已经说了很清楚,把历史回朔到1965年,引经据典,看来可要难为法官了。

一个单一选区的补选,考虑的东西可真多,好像有如大选,总统选举那样的多 - 那样多的政治考量,那样多的政治筹码计算,那样多的国内外因素要考虑。做一国总理可真不容易,你们一般人,就知道怪这个,怪那个,没有为总理想想,拿你这几百万元的薪水,还要在风中高喊,梦里还要想着行动党政治筹码的多少,几时周公才会在梦里说出真字,开出一个明确的补选日期来。

倒不如叫博彩公司先行开出一个赌盘,认人民赌上一把。那一天是红字,就选那一天为补选的日期。如果,博彩公司慢一步,民间的私人赌盘,很可能会抢先一步,自我做庒,先发一笔横财,然后才向总理报告,红字应该是x x x日。总理可能还要感谢这些人施予真字真言,然后核算手中的政治筹码,时机成熟,可以补选了。

一个20年的动不动

补选会影响国家稳定,动不动就补选,会影响国本,这个动不动,屈指算来都有20年了。20年叫做动不动,那么低薪人士的10年没有加薪(以通货膨胀来算),不知道可以不可以叫做动不动。为什么,人家10年没有加薪,不会动摇国本,不会引起国家的不稳定,而一个单区的补选,竟然会造成国家的稳定,到底哪一个的人数比较多。后港单选区只有2万多选民,全国低薪人士到底有多少?


或许,玄机就出在这句话:

 

Voters back parties, not individual MPs: PM Lee ST, 10Mar2012

这句话的意思是,选民是选党不是选个别的候选人,一旦,后港补选,如果根据总理的这句话,很可能后港选民在选党的情形下,又选出一个工人党的候选人,出任后港区的议员,这个政治算盘,这个政治筹码,总理可真的要好好算一算了。没有理由,就这样便宜工人党,换一个候选人,也可以当选成为议员,这不是拿行动党当傻瓜吗?行动党才不吃这一套,因此,能拖就拖,反正宪法没有规定时间,赌盘还在行动党手中。

运气在谁的手中?

听过黄金24小时吗?总理在工人党宣布开除议员的党籍,要求补选后,在短短数小时内,便说要慢慢想,国家还有其他大问题要考虑,没有明确说明要举行补选。这个讯息一发出,便不能收回。这个宣布,在政治筹码的计算上,到底是对还是错?没有人知道。这也表示,行动党无意在短期内,为后港补选赌上一把。这个时间的拖后,到底是政治筹码加分,还是减分?

如果马上举行补选,是短痛,而延后补选,甚至不补选,是长痛。那么,根据长痛不如短痛的道理,尽快举行补选,还是比较好的选择。

听过风水轮流转吗?失去了黄金24小时的优势后,现在要看风水是向哪一个方向吹。行动党当然认为是向着自己吹,拖越久越好,拖到人们麻木了,突然宣布补选,这样胜算会比较高。不过,这就要问问选民是怎么想的,拖字的背后是给行动党加政治筹码,还是给工人党加政治筹码。拖得背后也不单单是后港的选民而已,全国人们也在看,他们不只是看着后港的赌局,也在衡量自己选区将来的赌局,到底是要为哪一个政党的政治筹码加分。

千算万算,只有选民的算盘最准,他们为谁的政治筹码加分,谁就能赌赢这场选举。行动党的运气是否能次次都赢呢?这就有天知道了。

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