Skip to main content

只淡经济效益,不顾人文民情,欧元区经济大一统谈何容易?兼谈新山买药新山住?



欠缺人文考虑,人文调节的欧元区经济大一统现在正面临巨大的挑战。当时设立统一的共同货币 欧元,完全考虑的是经济效率,经济效益,使用统一的货币能够为欧元经济区的国家带来更多的好处。但是,个别国家的风土民情,不是短时间能够配合经济发展的需要而做出相应的调整。

同为白人,主要为基督教地区的欧元经济区,使用共同的货币在正常的情形下,应该会为区内的经济带来有利的发展,为区内的国家人民带来更大的好处。正因为被这种好处冲昏了头,没有重视人文因素,没有考量人文民情对欧元经济的调整,才导致今天的难堪局面。

事实上,欧元虽然出现危机,但是,到目前为止,并没有发生大幅度贬值的现象。欧元经济区也没有出现大衰退,问题出在不同文化,生活态度,习惯的地区。欧元区南部的拉丁语系国家和希腊和北部的欧元区经济有着很大的人文差异,对经济发展的步伐,原本就不一样,使用共同货币后,这个人文的因素并没有改变。

但是,共同的欧元,却使到欧洲南部地区,失去了调整本身货币和经济的条件。在以前,使用本身的货币,一旦,经济发生问题时,经济发展步伐跟不上时,可以自行把货币贬值,以较慢的速度发展本身的经济。几十年前,报上时而可以看到意大利里拉贬值,希腊,西班牙货币贬值,甚至法国法郎贬值。现在,情形不同了,不是要贬值就可以自行贬值这么容易。

设立欧元的合理构想是,欧元区内经济发展较高,较发达的地区,在高工资高成本的压力下,可以将生产转移到南部较落后的地区,这么一来,大家的经济都有好处。但是,这些来自北部的投资,却无法在南部落地生根,反而,水土不服,纷纷撤资回归。北部的经济继续发展就要靠引入区内其他国家的人力来解决,而南部,由于投资减少,却出现大量的失业现象。

避开货币的考虑,这种情形有点类似80年代新马印倡导的成长三角洲(新加坡,柔佛和廖内群岛),除了政治因素外,这个计划是否也面对人文的因素和挑战?为何,李登辉倡导的台商南进计划(投资东南亚)无法看到预期的成绩?但是,台商在中国的投资,港粤的经济合作,却取得成绩?

对于欧洲南部的国家,他们的生活方式,习惯,不会因为欧元的到来,共同货币的使用而做出重大的改变,尤其是乡村和海边地区。有没有欧元对他们来说,是不重要的。他们原本过着桃花源式的生活,自给自足,多产出来的农,鱼产品就出售给其他人,不管是本国人还是外国人。现在,突然之间,国家有难,外债来了,你叫他们如何处理?而多产出来的农,鱼产品,由于用欧元报价,在国际和欧元区内,也没有竞争的优势了。

因此,对失去优势的国家和人民,他们要如何调整生活,改变习惯?原本可以通过币值的贬值来调整,现在却无权这么做?由于欧元的设立目标是经济效益,因此,当然要以富国富人为标准,但是,人文的因素却正是欧元要取得经济效益的障碍。

我国在制订经济策略时,也往往是经济利益第一,较少的考虑不同国人的步伐,当然,在建国的过程中,也没有或较少的加入人文因素。所以,无可避免,有些人就会想出本身的解决方法,新山买药新山住就是一个例子。

为何会有新山买药新山住?

新加坡虽然是个小国,但是,由于人文的因素,有些人跟不上经济发展的步伐。所以,为了减轻药费的负担,有些国人就到新山买药,顺便还可以吃上一餐。甚至,有些人还在新山居住,却在新加坡工作。

欧元区的经济发展,正向危险的两极化发展。富有的北部地区,继续富有,贫苦的南部地区,继续贫苦,统一的货币欧元,却使到通过国家货币调节经济功能失去功效。长此下去,欧元的解体是有其必要的。难怪,有经济学家提出新欧元作为欧洲北部发达地区的新货币,而让欧元任其自由贬值。

新加坡的未来经济发展,将会面对低成长率的挑战。放慢脚步,让我们有机会多一点的考虑人文因素,制订协助脚步较慢的国人,或许是件好事。过去过于注重经济成长,样样经济第一,忽略人文考量的经济政策,是调整,改变的时候了。

而大选,总统选举的结果,也正好反映了这个民意。因此,政府有必要反思和检讨为何出现新山买药新山住的现象。

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Sub-standard PAP and the Singapore education system

I make a 'policy shift' when I hear the debate of right politics, constructive politics and sub-standard opposition. My original aim is to discuss about “Su Dongbo, Zhang Juzheng and Singapore education system”. The discussion will end with a sub-standard PAP, in particular from the assessment of the quality of PAP potential candidates. Another policy shift is to discuss it like a play, a drama and make it more entertainment rather than a sub-standard political discussion. Act 1 Gangster’s demand Imagine a sense in the Hong Kong's gangster movie (or a godfather movie), the gangsters' master is shouting at his poor opponent and demand him to give a price for his wrong act. The poor guy without any resources can only offer his body or his service to work for the master. Back in his own chamber, the master is still not satisfied and continues to shout 'don't play, play, you think you are hero, you think you are tiger, or superstar or acting ...

EBRC objectives: Stop “Out of Aljunied”, Stop SDP Breakthrough and “Negative-Asset” Ministers.

First of all, we have to congratulate the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee for creating more competitions, especially, multi-cornered competitions in the East. When making changes, EBRC aims to achieve 3 goals: To prevent “Out of Aljunied” for Workers’ Party.  This is the most important objective. To prevent Singapore Democratic Party making any breakthrough in the North and Central.   To look for a solution to retire “negative-asset” ministers or reduce PAP damages. From the reported claims from different political parties, we will expect multi-cornered contests not only in single constituencies but also in group representative constituencies. The PAP hopes to have a repeat of 2011 Presidential Election. Then Tony Tan won the Presidency when he got only 35% of the votes, a narrow win.However, a win is still a win. He did in even in the very last minute, after recounts of votes.    How to achieve multi-cornered contests? By i...

Is Prism Project Another Central Planning of the PAP?

There are 3 scenarios under the Prism Project#1 of Institute of Public Policy.  However, it looks more like the central scenario planning of the People’s Action Party. From the instructional menu of Prism Project Primer #2, participants were guided to a situation in 2022 and they have to imagine, within the Primer framework, to come out with 3 possible scenarios in Jun-Aug 2012.  2022. What a coincidence! Not long ago, PM Lee declared that he would like to hold the prime minister post for another 10 years. The other coincidence is the similarity between the 3 scenarios and the candidates of PE2011. How competitive and sustainable are the 3 scenarios to the people of Singapore and to the PAP?   Will the scenarios produce competitive and sustainable Singapore, Singaporeans or the PAP?  Perhaps, as what the Chinese say: planning cannot always catch up with changes.   And planning sometimes turns out the wrong, bad and unexpected results, espec...