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说来说去,说到最后就是害怕你跟政府要钱养老。


《我们的人口,我们的未来》专题报告看起来就像是行动党的竞选宣言,如果喜欢就继续投它一票,不然,就只有改变政府,和最重要的就是自我照顾身体,身体健康就是养老的本钱。

事实上,政府最担心害怕的是,年轻人减少,老年人增加,依赖比率(dependency ratio)将增加,工作的人少,养老的人多,当然政府开支就会增加。因此,最后还是钱的问题,没钱怎么养老?

《专题报告》以老年人支持比率(old-age support ratio)做说明。从1970年的13.5人(年龄介于2064岁)到2011年的6.3人,再到2030年的2.1 人。越来越少年轻人支持老年人,钱从哪里来,如何支持老年人养老?

这样的思维对吗?每个人都要过日子,为何有人连最起码的生活都没有,连最基本的尊严都没有。而我们又是世界富国之一。

《专题报告指出,居民人口一旦萎缩,本地家庭结构将改变,企业也会因为请不到人而失去竞争力。公共开支也会因人口老龄化而不断增加。为实现可持续人口愿景,政府将从建设凝聚力强的社会打造优质生活环境打造可持续发展和蓬勃经济三方面着手,检讨人口政策。》(早报727日)

根据统计局的资料,我国的人均收入不是2011年每人高达61692元吗http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes/economy/hist/gnp.html

怎么会没钱养老想想看,如果每个人都有这么多钱,公积金最低存款,医药保险会有问题吗?如果我们的所得能够公平一点,政府能够公开一点,大方一点的照顾人民,适度增加卫生医药等开支,能够跟上第一世界的水准,或者,最少不要跟第三世界国家比,那又何必如此担心,如此害怕呢。

这令人想起Balding教授的话(baldingsworld.com#:新加坡的财富由于没有天然资源,就是依赖生产力的增加而产生的。但是,生产力的增加后的所得并没有公平的分配,这种做法当然导致有人有太多钱养老,有人没钱养老。分配越不公平,就越多人没钱养老。

如果要最简单的看待这份专题报告和人口政策, 只能说数据不全,先斩后奏 和总结陈词

数据不全

基本的每年统计数据都没有,怎么讨论?每年的人口增加,新公民,新移民,每年有多少?来自何处?有些数字可能有些敏感,对新加坡少数民族产生误解,但是,如果是公开公正的讨论,就应该把所有的数据都拿出来讨论。而不是选择性,把那些对自己有利,证明自己对的数据出来而已。

这真的如早报说的有了更多信息吗?还是,又被误导又被网民误读了呢?

《政府昨天发放更多与人口政策相关的信息,使新加坡人了解我国人口政策面临的挑战,鼓励人民在掌握资讯的基础上参与讨论,并为当局全面检讨人口政策提出建议,以实现可持续人口愿景。》(早报727日)

先斩后奏

人口的大量引进,不是现在的事情。而是发生在5年,10年,15年前的事。现在,才来提供数据来讨论,不是有点先斩后奏的感觉,为何是先做了,才来讨论,而不是先讨论后才来进行。
这也没有什么好奇怪的。行动党的做法是只要是好的,对国家有利的,就先做,不用讨论,反正每次大选都选行动党,因此,先斩后奏也没有什么大不了。

问题是以前是第三世界国家,现在已经升为第一世界国家,就要以第一世界国家的做法来办事。以前可以先斩后奏,不表示现在和以后,可以一样先斩后奏。或许,这可以解释为为何政府现在愿意跟人民讨论人口政策。

总结陈词

这个《专题报告》更像政府的总结陈词,行动党的政策说明。它简单的说明过去,也简单的说明将来。更点名没钱人将来怎么养老的问题。
它不只是解释人口政策,更为移民人口增加据理力争。因此,行动党政府将会继续它原有的人口政策。虽然,《专题报告》也指出近年来,移民人数有所减少,但是,引进移民的政策是不会改变的。这要看人民的反对声音有多大,2011年大选的声音似乎还是不够大,所以只是出了一份《专题报告》就够了。

新加坡人真的那样反对外来移民吗?还是行动党政府自导自演?一个政府有没有做到照顾原有居民的问题,如果做得美美的,老公民还会有这么多的怨气吗?

养好身体

不论如何,大家要把身体保养好,只有这样养老的生活素质才能维持,维护下去。想要行动党政府改变政策,不是这样容易的事,就像华文教育,越改越差。当然,你也可以选择替换政府,让在野党以新思维来管理新加坡。对很多新加坡人来说,这是一副险棋,是有代价的。当人们被压得透不过气来时,铤而走险也是有可能的。因为,行动党也不能保证你的养老问题。

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