Skip to main content

说不清外汇储备 道不尽数字游戏 – 国家篇



我国的外汇储备到底有多少? 这是一个看来连政府都无法回答的问题。好几年前,政府告诉时任总统的王鼎昌,这需要大约50个‘人年’。 当然,你也可以相信政府公布的一切,就像早报社论说的一样:

淡马锡不辱使命: 政府之所以要成立政府投资公司和淡马锡控股,目的在于更好地管理我们历年来辛苦积累的国家储备金,确保它能保值或增值 (07.07.2012)

或者,早报的报道:

淡马锡投资组合总市值再创新高 (06.07.2012)

当然,同一组数据,你也可以选择相信:

淡马锡2011净利润下滑16% (中国证券报, 06.07.2012) 

你有权选择淡马锡,政府投资公司,财政部,金融管理局所公布的一切。当然,你也可以怀疑这些只是数字游戏,真相如何,就连包公再世也可能理不清,金融工具,金融数字,是随时随地都在变动的,今天的一百万,明天可能是一张废纸,当然,也可能像苹果股票一样,一股上千元以上。

再加上,创意会计,选择性审计,未授权投资,假报虚报,在国际金融界经常发生,害的银行损失惨重,甚至关门都有可能。这是一个变化中的世界,谁能和敢说的准呢?

公积金局有没有钱要看淡马锡和政府投资公司

一直以来,国人对公积金局到底有没有足够的钱,发还给会员都有所怀疑。因为,公积金局的钱是通过政府借给淡马锡和政府投资公司,如果,这两个机构的帐不清,数不明,自然的,人们就会产生怀疑。

帐不清,数不明,不是说淡马锡和政府投资公司,没有公开账目让国人看。他们不但出账目报告,还在海内外的报纸,大登广告,唯恐天下人不知。但是,人们怀疑的是,这些账目数字背后的可靠性和准确性问题。

只相信主流媒体?

数目不会说话,但是,解读和理解却可以有好几种。当然,人们有权选择只相信一种 主流媒体的报道。很不幸的主流媒体最近也出现了有关‘地铁车门没关就开车‘的造假新闻。因此,完全相信主流媒体,未必能正确解读,充分理解新加坡发生的事情。报纸的社论和报道只能是一种解读和理解,读者有必要自我分析,自我结论。

这里有必要提出北京大学汇丰商学院一位洋教授 (Christopher Balding)对新加坡外汇储备的分析。
网址为:baldingsworld.com.

这位教授提出的几点分析和意见比较特别和新鲜,值得我们注意。不过,如果不幸,你选择相信他的说法,那你很可能会吓一跳。作为一位美国人,我们倒是要佩服他的敢言和直言,因为作为一个旁观者,身在北京,或许,他更能看出一个道理来。不过,信不信由你,今天今刻还没有标准答案,或许,对有些人来说,今生今世都找不到答案。

洋人的敢言和直言

现在按照发表时间后先,节录一些他的惊人之语:

#1 外汇储备相差一倍?
淡马锡和政府投资公司应该管理146百亿新元。如果依据最新的(新加坡)政府资产负债表资料列出的7千零50亿新元资产做比较,这显示有大约7400亿新元的误差。我们还可以继续忽视这个差别到几时?

# 2 投资回报只有0.004%
如果我们接受(新加坡政府公布的)盈余和借贷以及资产负债表为正确数据,这就显示新加坡政府从1974以来,只赚取0.004%的回报率,而不是(政府投资公司和淡马锡)所说的7-17%回报率。
这就是一些创意会计。谁说新加坡没有创意工业?很不幸的用错了地方。

#3 人民是窄取财富的源头?
新加坡政府的公共盈余并非因为税务非常沉重而是花费在人民的开支非常的低。新加坡有很高的财政赤字因为它抽税过度并且对公共产品和服务供给不足。新加坡把人民当成是财富窄取的源头。相反地,人民应该被当成是资源。
新加坡人民应该获得比缅甸和孟加拉更好的对待。

#4 人民为政府服务?
新加坡在教育和公共卫生开支上都排在末尾。新加坡政府包揽了人民生产力(创造后)的财务利益,但是,却没有提供公共产品和服务给理应获得这些产品和服务的人民。
拥有石油的国家有一大笔主权财富基金因为它们在地理位置上中了彩票。新加坡巨大的主权财富基金却是从人民的经济生产力中窄取而来的。
因此,新加坡人民是为政府工作。

依照惯例,新加坡政府,淡马锡,政府投资公司是不会对网上的言论发表意见,或者做出解释。因此,这谜团还是无法打开。选择相信与否,自我决定。

为了避免误读,翻译出现错误,读者还是自己上网看原文比较安全。

如果有一天,耶鲁国大博雅学院也出了一位这样的洋教授,不知道会是怎样的结果?学院内的自由,学院外看得到吗?

假如,Balding 教授的分析是对的,我国的外汇储备就少了。。。一倍?那公积金局怎么办?

到底是投资失利,还是高报投资回报,说不清,道不尽。这是国家层面的问题,但是,对个人来说,如果公积金局因收不到政府的借款,而发不了会员的退休金时,哪将会怎么办?个人如何应对?

#英文原文:

#1
Temasek and GIC should manage $1.46 trillion SGD. Given the most recent government balance sheet listing $705 billion SGD of assets, this would imply a discrepancy of approximately $740 billion SGD.
Using government of Singapore numbers and investment policy statements there is a $760 billion SGD discrepancy in financial accounts.  How long can these differences be ignored?
05.07.2012

#2
If we accept their surpluses and borrowing as accurate and their balance sheet as accurate, this would imply the government of Singapore they earned .004% since 1974 rather than the 7-17% they claim.
Now that is some creative accounting.  Who says Singapore doesn’t have creative industries?  Too bad they are the wrong kind.
02.07.2012

#3
Oil dependent countries run large budget surpluses because of the enormous ongoing royalties they receive from resource extraction. The government of Singapore is running public surpluses not because the tax burden is incredibly high but because the spending on its people is incredibly low.  Singapore runs large budget deficits because it over taxes and under delivers public goods and services.  Singapore is treating its people as sources of wealth extraction. Rather, people should be considered resources.
The people of Singapore deserve better than Myanmar and Bangladesh.
14.06.2012

#4
According to the World Development Indicators from the World Bank, when we compare Singapore to other major SWF countries with more than a few years in existence, the differences are stark.  Singapore ranks last in education spending and last in public health expenditure. The government of Singapore is capturing the financial benefits of its citizens productivity and not providing the public goods and services its people have every right to expect.
Whereas oil rich states have enormous sovereign wealth funds because they won the geographic lottery, Singapore created enormous sovereign wealth funds by capturing the economic productivity of its people.
The government of Singapore has built sovereign wealth funds not through natural resource wealth or shrewd investments, but capturing the financial wealth of the people of Singapore. The people of Singapore work for the government.
11.06.2012

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Sub-standard PAP and the Singapore education system

I make a 'policy shift' when I hear the debate of right politics, constructive politics and sub-standard opposition. My original aim is to discuss about “Su Dongbo, Zhang Juzheng and Singapore education system”. The discussion will end with a sub-standard PAP, in particular from the assessment of the quality of PAP potential candidates. Another policy shift is to discuss it like a play, a drama and make it more entertainment rather than a sub-standard political discussion. Act 1 Gangster’s demand Imagine a sense in the Hong Kong's gangster movie (or a godfather movie), the gangsters' master is shouting at his poor opponent and demand him to give a price for his wrong act. The poor guy without any resources can only offer his body or his service to work for the master. Back in his own chamber, the master is still not satisfied and continues to shout 'don't play, play, you think you are hero, you think you are tiger, or superstar or acting ...

EBRC objectives: Stop “Out of Aljunied”, Stop SDP Breakthrough and “Negative-Asset” Ministers.

First of all, we have to congratulate the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee for creating more competitions, especially, multi-cornered competitions in the East. When making changes, EBRC aims to achieve 3 goals: To prevent “Out of Aljunied” for Workers’ Party.  This is the most important objective. To prevent Singapore Democratic Party making any breakthrough in the North and Central.   To look for a solution to retire “negative-asset” ministers or reduce PAP damages. From the reported claims from different political parties, we will expect multi-cornered contests not only in single constituencies but also in group representative constituencies. The PAP hopes to have a repeat of 2011 Presidential Election. Then Tony Tan won the Presidency when he got only 35% of the votes, a narrow win.However, a win is still a win. He did in even in the very last minute, after recounts of votes.    How to achieve multi-cornered contests? By i...

Is Prism Project Another Central Planning of the PAP?

There are 3 scenarios under the Prism Project#1 of Institute of Public Policy.  However, it looks more like the central scenario planning of the People’s Action Party. From the instructional menu of Prism Project Primer #2, participants were guided to a situation in 2022 and they have to imagine, within the Primer framework, to come out with 3 possible scenarios in Jun-Aug 2012.  2022. What a coincidence! Not long ago, PM Lee declared that he would like to hold the prime minister post for another 10 years. The other coincidence is the similarity between the 3 scenarios and the candidates of PE2011. How competitive and sustainable are the 3 scenarios to the people of Singapore and to the PAP?   Will the scenarios produce competitive and sustainable Singapore, Singaporeans or the PAP?  Perhaps, as what the Chinese say: planning cannot always catch up with changes.   And planning sometimes turns out the wrong, bad and unexpected results, espec...