Thursday, 22 November 2012

Will emotionless Singaporeans give Dr Chee Soon Juan a chance in Parliament 2016?


Yes if you are in the cycle of social media. No if you are on the side of main stream media. So, what is the chance of Dr Chee Soon Juan getting your votes in 2016?

By the probability of throwing a coin, it is 50:50. The chance right now is perhaps below 50% as his constituency groundwork has yet to begin. We have to assess his new ‘emotion’ in the next few years and re-rate his chances.

Let’s be very clear that less emotion does not mean less rational.  Singapore voters are calculative and they want to have both economic growth and democracy, just like they want upgrading with government subsidy plus oppositions in the parliament. When they know they can’t have both, they will make the best choice for themselves, for example Aljunied GRC.

Singapore ranks as the most emotionless society in the world, beating out Georgia, Lithuania, and Russia. Singaporeans are unlikely to report feelings of anger, physical pain, or other negative emotions. They’re not laughing a lot, either. “If you measure Singapore by the traditional indicators, they look like one of the best-run countries in the world,” says Jon Clifton, a Gallup partner in Washington. “But if you look at everything that makes life worth living, they’re not doing so well.”http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-20/singapore-confronts-an-emotion-deficit

Best company with no work-life balance

From the above report, we know Singapore is one of the best-run companies in the world but it does not mean a work-life balance is provided in this company.  We look at the figure and pay you based on your performance. You have your compensation and bonus accordingly but be ready to report to work every time you are needed.

With this life style, you are motionless even you have high pay and fat bonus. Unfortunately, if you are not in this class, you become even more emotionless. Going down to the social ladder, you see more emotionless faces as they have to struggle for a living.  

Emotion or emotionless Dr Chee?

Same to Dr Chee, after getting the news of his annulment from bankruptcy, let’s guess he is emotion or less emotion now.  His past action is considered emotion to some or rational for others. And what about the future, especially in GE2016, will his participation as an election candidate lead to a new emotion?

Let us wish him all the best after Friday, 23 Nov 2012.  It is good to see him in parliament and so we can judge him whether he is ‘too emotion or too rational’.

The Government says Singapore opposition leader Chee Soon Juan's bankruptcy has been annulled after an unprecedented concession by two former prime ministers to whom he owed about $400,000.
A government office statement says ex-prime ministers Lee Kuan Yew and Goh Chok Tong agreed to accept a reduced amount of S$30,000 from Mr Chee, which will free him from bankruptcy proceedings formally on Friday.http://www.todayonline.com/Singapore/EDC121121-0000128/SDP-leader-Chee-Soon-Juans-bankruptcy-annulled

Dr Chee as an MP in 2016?

Based on the SDP percentage of valid votes of 36.8% in GE2011 and its best performance result of Holland-Bukit Timah GRC (39.9%), it is really not an easy task for Dr Chee and SDP. You need a 10.11% swing to win.  Is it possible?

And the SDP team in Holland-Bukit Timah was (as claimed in social media) already the best of the best from the oppositions in 2011. There is no doubt the percentage of valid votes of SDP in 2016 will increase from 36.8%, but by how much?

GE % of valid votes

PAP
WP
SDP
NSP
1984
64.8%
41.9%
46.1%
-
1988
63.2%
38.5%
39.5%
34.6%
1991@
61%
41.1%
48.6%
37.9%
1997
65%
37.6%
33.1%
30.1%
2006
66.6%
38.4%
23.3%
32.5%SDA
2011
60.1%
46.6%
36.8%
39.3%
@ By-elections strategySource: www.singapore-elections.com 

23.3% in 2006 for SDP is an unusual low and could be a statistical error due to some unusual and unfavourable campaigns.  Confidentially saying, in 2016, the SDP percentage of valid votes should increase to more than 40%. But will this enough to make a breakthrough?

The SDP before 1991 and after 1991 is a totally different party under different leadership.  If history repeats itself and SDP manages to gain back its glory, then we will see the first SDP MP under the leadership of Dr Chee in 2016.

A better organised SDP with more qualify candidates should have a chance in 2016.  But Singapore voters are the richest in the world, the most emotionless in the world, and as reported above Singaporeans are unlikely to report feelings of anger, physical pain, or other negative emotions.”

This makes getting their feelings difficult not to mention their votes. And SDP does not a have National Conversation to talk to the people even it only reaches to a certain group of people.  

Fight to win

We will see a very different picture from the past for future general elections or even by-elections. In the past, especially in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, participation in elections is like playing a game, full of fun.  It is certainly more emotions and many candidates participated in elections just for the fun. And for the PAP candidates it was a fun too, competing with each other to see who had the highest margin!

The future elections will be less emotions and less funs.

You stand as candidate is to win the election, not for fun. There is no room for fun playing candidates unless you want to lose your deposit. Even the PAP candidates have to fight to win and opposition candidates will have to choose a party that gives them a higher chance of winning.

Will all these future emotionless candidates lead to an even less emotion Singapore?  I hope not.  

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