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建国47年 乐观的80% 房奴的50年?

我们对未来的信心指数很高,高达80%的人认为,孩子的一代会比自己来的好。信心这么高,又何来害怕50年的房贷。何况,手里有余钱的家长,如果能够替孩子还上首期,甚至更多的分期付款,那么以我们过去投资地产的经历,这比去赌场还要有胜算。

信心指数何来:

“尚达曼昨晚出席达曼裕廊选区的第47届国庆晚宴时,向在场2500名宾客发表演讲时,提到《海峡时报》最近展开的一项调查。该项调查显示80%的新加坡父母有信心孩子的未来会比自己一代好。一项国际调查却显示,少过50%的美国父母相信孩子的未来会比自己一代好,欧洲和日本的情况也一样。“
(早报84日)
但是,这是有前提的:“副总理兼财政部长尚达曼说,新加坡绝不能出现年轻人的前途比父母辈暗淡的局面,但要防止这种局面发生,维护父母的那份希望与信心,新加坡必须采取行动,推行适当政策与计划,并持正确态度。”

采取行动,推行适当政策与计划,并持正确态度?我们有看到什么行动,政策与计划吗?除了内阁添多几个部长,经济部门并没有出现大的变动,但是,孩子的前途,父母的希望和信心,如果没有经济这个推动力,那么什么都是空谈的。

因此,政府要人民‘持正确态度’。正确的接受政府的人口政策,正确的对待外来移民,正确的接受我们生育率下降的事实,正确的面对母语程度和学习的困难,正确的继续的接受一党专政,正确的看待社交网站的言论,正确的对民主和自由的权衡。

如果没有以上的正确态度,那么,孩子的前途,父母的信心和希望,很可能落空,到时不要怪政府无能。因为,你们抱着不正确的态度,所以,经济搞不好。不接受政府理想的人口政策,人力就减少,生产力就降低,竞争力就下滑,最后,当然是信心指数要回归到欧美的少过50%的水准。

到底我们的信心指数应该是80%还是50%?调查的数据有没有水份,我们不知道。如果以欧美日本先到达第一世界国家的水准,而我们的经济模式,又以西方为主,那么他们现在面对的问题,不就是我们将来,不久后就会面对的问题吗?今天的80%,在下次大选时,会不会是50%,那就很难说了。
我们比较幸运的是,我们身处亚洲,如果我们也在欧美日本,那情形也就跟他们差不多了。

这点,倒是许文远比较没有这么乐观。他认为:

长达50年的房屋贷款或许能帮年轻人提前实现买大房子的梦想,不过国家发展部长许文远提醒新加坡人在购屋时量力而为,谨慎对待可能让人成为终身房奴的房贷。” (早报86日)

报道也指出:许文远说全球经济存在很多问题,极有可能影响新加坡,在颇具挑战的大环境下,新加坡人应谨慎消费,在力所能及的范围内购买房子。他说:现在市场上有一些噱头(gimmick),有银行在向购屋者提供50年期限的房贷,请不要陷进去,这没有意义。 (早报86日)

50年房贷是不是这么可怕?是谁给予购屋者这么大的信心,而银行也有这么大希望,认为他们还的起分期付款,七老八十还有经济能力还钱。这里面恐怕是家家有本‘好’念的金。看着房子起价,先买不是合算一些吗?尤其是家里有些余钱,放在银行生不了什么利息,为何不为孩子增加信心和希望呢?

50年的房市当然有起有落,似乎守到最后,有余钱面对困境的人,是赢家。47年的建国路,房地产市场有起有落,没有钱力挺的人倒下,有钱付分期付款的人是最后的胜利者。这就是资本主义的可爱之处。胜利者的奖品可说是十分丰厚。

做父母的看到这个信心和希望,有能力的当然帮孩子一把。这肯定比上赌场好,赌场输钱一去不回。房子跌价,还有机会回升。97年买房子的人,现在大笑特笑。即使两三年前买房子的人,也可小笑一声。但是,这些是有钱人的玩意,没钱人就要认真的听许文远的话。50年的房奴,很可能是两代人的负担。

说到底,这是一个有钱人越有钱,没钱的越没钱的现象。老爸有钱替你先还首期和分期付款,几年后,房价起了,孩子还有机会换新房子。房价不起,收入起了,还是还得起分期付款。当然,也会遇到房价不起,收入不起,老爸又没钱,那你就是那些没有力量力挺的人了。后果,当然和那些在股市,房市大跌时中招的人一样,血本无归。

50年房贷的推出,政府有没有责任?是不是给人太多的信心和希望?是不是没有及时推出令人满意的房子?是不是买房卖房太好赚了?还是我们已经迷失了方向?国内国外买家才一起在小红点捞钱。

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