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The Aftermaths of War in Asia, Which Empires will disappear? USA, UK, EU or Japan???

 

The Aftermaths of War in Asia, 

Which Empires will disappear?

USA, UK, EU or Japan???


Conflict in Asia could have an effect akin to World War I, said Ng Eng Han in his recent speech. The consequences of World War I are the disappearance of 4 empires: The Austro-Hungarian, German, Ottoman and Russian.

The likely conflict place in Asia is Taiwan Strait,  and now with new alignment, the Korean peninsula is another possible area.   

Therefore, we need to maintain peace in Asia, especially North-east Asia and Taiwan.  As people of no influence, most of us can only watch and pray for peace.  There is little we can do because the potential conflicts are played by people outside Asia. 

As we look back in history, if Asian conflicts are akin to World War I, what will be the consequences?

It is quite difficult to predict China, Russia or India will fall as shown in the war in Ukraine and its aftermaths. Russia is still there, continuing to make money from their rich resources. China and India are the growth engines for the world.

So, which empires are going to be weaker or disappear? The first one is likely to be the United Kingdom.  After Brexit, the UK has lost her direction, and the potential leaving of Scotland and Northern Ireland.  

The US economy will be weakened. A weak economy, debt ceiling problem and even in the areas of technology, manufacturing, the US is not doing well.  The only asset, the US dollar, is still strong but will lose importance later. The future direction looks less promising for the dollar.      

The European Union and the euro economic zone may be the next to face disintegration. The Ukraine war has worsened the integration and unity of Europe.  They are caught between looking east or depending on the US. 

Japan is also a likely candidate.  The declining population, less competitive industrial power, weak currency, innovation, creativity, are all indicators for a declining Japan.  

Even though there is no conflict in Asia, the above developments are happening now.  G7 will soon be replaced by BRICS plus in economic activities, investments and trade. 

A picture, akin to World War I, may not please the Western alliance.  This time, they will not have the cake like the Paris Peace Conference and the Treaty of Versailles.   


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