否极泰来 Piji Tailai

  Don't ask RIGHT or WRONG. Think Win or Lose. Participation is good but a win is sweeter. This is the PAP game plan. They want to ‘win’. Otherwise, why is the need for gerrymandering? Have they cared about democracy? No. They just want to maintain the status quo, passing constitutional amendments as they like.   Election game is far beyond participation but how to get into the parliament.  The PAP can have the luxury to provide free riders to their candidates.  No opposition can do that. You fight for it. Still remember the ‘by election’ effect?  Is this a democratic strategy?  It is not about participation but winning or losing.  If you can't get into the parliament, there is very little contribution you can make. The new GE direction is winning, not so much on participation. There are opportunity costs for a walkover.  On May 3, we will know the result. 

  行动党布阵策略错误？ 颜金勇拉高平均年龄， 保守的象征， 改变的绊脚石。 过气、过期的4G颜金勇， 真的能够绊倒工人党吗？ 3G张志贤，4G王瑞杰，已经人走茶凉。 为什么3G颜金勇要来榜鹅，难道这里的海鲜特别香吗？从接班人的安排，颜金勇是不可能做总理。他的前路比2020年的王瑞杰相差太远了。王是以未来总理的身份来豪赌。颜金勇没有什么好输，只有剩余价值。 颜金勇的作用，就像死鱼，希望能够为行动党翻身。这是否尊重选民吗？一个几乎退休，过气，过期的人物，在竞选期间，他只是看管副总理，说不一定大选过后，就没有了，胜选变资政，落选就退休。 榜鹅是一个新选区，选民希望看到年轻、改变的气氛。 颜金勇的出现，把原本有一点亮眼、朝气的行动党团队，变成老态龙钟，暮气沉沉。 工人党的出现，新空气、新气象，就是让人觉得改变的到来。 东海岸是一个旧选区，选民有怀旧感，而王瑞杰又是总理接班人，因此，可以给行动党一个机会。榜鹅就很不一样。原本行动党建立的年轻形象，一下子就被颜金勇破坏了。为什么行动党不敢派年轻部长来拉高人气？ 颜金勇在为行动党做最后的拼搏，利用他的剩余价值为党做出贡献。可以算是勇气可嘉。不适合的人放错位置，很可能造成不可弥补的损失。选民知道发生了什么事情，拿看管副总理的高位，真的能够顺利过关吗？

  Failed Constitution Amendment? PAP Chinese candidates becoming free riders in GRCs, for example Ang Mo Kio, Nee Soon.   GRC is to protect and ensure minority representation in the parliament.  Now we see the system has been abused to protect the Chinese PAP candidates.  It has defeated the original aim and purpose.  Free riders now include PAP new faces or defeated candidates in all races.  Another example of the failed constitutional amendment is the elected presidency.  President Tharman contested and won the presidency in an open election.  Restricted or closed elections do not work well.   Oh! PAP talks so loud about meritocracy. Mind you! The constitution can only be amended by a super majority or a one-party monopoly.  This is the current situation, do you want more checks and balances? 

  看看在野党新候选人的资历， PAP独揽人才的时代已经结束。 接着就是看一党独大会不会被终结。 您说呢！ 令人亮眼的工人党14位新候选人，应该给予一个赞！前进党和民主党也有两、三位新的优秀候选人。和以往的大选相比，PAP的新候选人，不但没有突出，反而有些根本就是塔顺风车。 集选区的目的，原本就是保护少数族群，确保他们有一定的代表。发展到今天，竟然沦落到连PAP华族候选人，那些不具资格者，也能够利用顺风车进入国会。这是开倒车，无形中影响整体PAP议员的素质。 以上两个发展趋势，证明PAP已经完全失去主导国家精英，垄断国家未来优秀接班人的大局。优秀候选人，愿意牺牲，贡献国家，为国效力，站在在野党，尤其是工人党，已经是一个无法抗拒的时代潮流。 选民应该认可这一新的政治格局，新的发展，并且给予大力支持。如果继续认为只有闪电才能保证新加坡的未来，那么，将是大错特错。因为，连李显龙也不得不承认，PAP没有，也不可能垄断所有的好建议，好政策。因此，制衡力量必须强化，让更多在野党议员进入国会。

  Committee after committee, Task force after task force; Basic problems still not solved, like cost of living, jobs, affordable housing, income gap, rich poor gap, … Trust the PAP anymore? Whenever Singapore faces challenges, the PAP government would quickly form a committee or task force.   But have they ever solved the basic problems?   No. Their first job is to save the economy, they say,  not the basic livelihood problems. When the economy recovers, they reward themselves first.  Look at the GLCs or government linked companies.  When they make profits with government financial support, who is the first to get the bonus?  No spirit of shared prosperity.  They even create five unnecessary mayors in the name of looking after your welfare.  When the economy grows, you feel your cake become smaller.  You complain, they just give your vouchers, discounts, coupons, …  while they continue to receive high compensation, bonus, stock opti...

  1元市场和18元意大利面 场面失控和优雅用餐的两级世界。 面对关税大战，PAP真的了解民间疾苦吗？ PAP有多脱节？它低估了1元购物的魅力，为什么会有这么多人挤爆市场，为的就是要省一点钱，然后，把省下的钱，用在他处。当然，也可以说成，他们喜欢热闹，就如老人收集纸皮，也是一种运动呀！ PAP的部长，议员却坐在西餐厅，优雅的享用意大利面，看着挤爆的市场，怀疑的问同伴，事情有这么严重吗？政府不是已经发购物券，现金，折扣，津贴，难道这么做还不够吗？还要做些什么？不明白？ 关税大战才刚开始，匆匆忙忙就设立委员会，应对巨变。这是表面功夫，还是有心协助人民？甚至，鼓动无助感，期望PAP成为救世主。捞取政治资本。从1985开始的经济委员会，到现在已经有好多个委员会，为何依然无法解决贫富悬殊，反而搞到现在出现挤爆1元市场的困境！ 根据吴作栋的瑞士生活标准，大多数新加坡人应该吃得起18元意大利面，低一点5元云吞面也消费得起。偏偏现在，关税大战还没有明朗，人民已经为1元米、货品而折腰。或许，PAP认为有人贪小便宜，要让PAP难堪。 李显龙说，要看候选人背后的党，那个党代表什么精神？1元市场和18元意大利面，让人看清PAP的候选人和这个党的价值，你还继续相信下去吗? 给予强而有力的委托吗？

  Effective Alternative Voices At Least 20 Opposition MPs needed to check the Government. The PM and Opposition Leader both enjoy 70% approval ratings.  In GE2015, Low Thia Khiang said it. Lee Hsien Loong responded and said quality matters.  In GE2025, do you think the quality of WP candidates is any lower than that of the PAP. No. If not in par, it is even better. So, why don’t you give WP a chance to be an effective check on government in parliament, outside parliament. Low said no reaction from the government when there was one WP MP in parliament based on his 20 years of experience. When WP had seven MPs, you saw changes. A small step towards change! When WP had ten MPs in 2020, Leader of the Opposition was created.  But it is still not enough. The PAP has a huge cabinet, many ministers, and even mayors, 10 + 2 (PSP) cannot form an effective check. WP needs to step up, and needs to have a strong regional base before becoming a nation wide political party.   ...

  Working for Singapore 为新加坡服务。投工人党一票，让工人党为国效劳，做出贡献。英文口号，直截了当，就是效劳新加坡。中文有点拗口，不过却指明票投工人党，工人党才能在国会发声，反映民情。 反观行动党的英文口号，长篇大论。讲太多，做太少。中文口号，看似工整，却似乎在自言自语，没有国没有家。自说自话似乎身不在其中，更多为个人为党卖命。 世界剧变 ，你为国人做了什么？设立委员会就真的能够解决问题吗？看管政府做好本分工作，不需要利用委员会来加分。 团队更新 ，是你家的事，实为一党独大铺路。黄循财还好意思说，神圣一票，选两代领导。何来更新？ 坚持初衷 ，看到你却是离初衷越来越远。看看李显扬怎么说行动党。连李光耀故居的初衷都无法完成。 共创辉煌 ，人民的蛋糕在哪里？几十年来，经济蛋糕越来越大，人民却分得越来越少。购物券，津贴，折扣，越发越多应对生活压力。 倒不如，“投工人党一票，为国效劳”。 投票是尽公民义务。 投工人党一票是为了制衡政府，为人民服务。

  How vulnerable is your constituency? Look at how PAP announces their confirmed candidates. Clear cut loss/win comes first. They first announced new faces contesting in Hougang, Aljunied nd Sengkang. You know lah! Likely PAP losers. They also announced old guards contesting Marsiling-Yew Tee, Ang Mo Kio, Nee Soon, Sambawang, Holland-Bukit Timah with new faces.  You know these are likely PAP winners.  Midway, they also confirmed their candidates for West-Coast-Jurong West and Tampines.  It seems the PAP is confident these two group constituencies are not so vulnerable.  Risk level is lower than East Coast or Marine Parade.    They also confirmed their candidates in Jalan Besar, Choa Chu Kang, Jurong East-Bukit Batoh, which are contested by small parties or non-team A of bigger opposition parties.  Based on the scheduled announcement of candidates in each constituency, West Coast and Tampines are quite safe for the PAP. Do you agree? ...

  过去五年做了什么？ 王瑞杰应不应该有第二次机会？ 从王瑞杰身上折射出来， 我们又看到行动党做了什么？ 王瑞杰空降东海岸集选区，以未来总理的态势，成功为行动党守土，选民给他一个机会，让他有所表现。结果呢！他的东海岸计划怎么样啦？总理梦也没有了！ 姑息东海岸计划，姑息王瑞杰的无所作为，是对民主的讽刺。明明有忠诚替代声音，明明有更好的选择，白白浪费五年；选民应该给改变一个机会。起来，加入改变，加速前进，铁锤换闪电。 你给王瑞杰多五年的机会，他还能做出什么贡献？ 他能提出替代方案吗？ 不能。 他还能继续担任副总理吗？这个机会应该留给第四代，而不是介于第三和第四代之间的王瑞杰。 他还能做出什么贡献？东海岸计划版本2？看不出来，他在未来政府中能够扮演什么角色？一个过气的部长，是时候让他退休了。

  Realistic GE2025? 10 30+ new faces Recycling candidate to Marine Parade General goes single PAP’s loss cutting strategy?   The PAP needs more than 30 new faces as they are preparing at least 10 losers in coming GE. Candidates fielding in blue zones have only 50% chances of winning based on the last GE result. So, you can only count 20+ potential winning candidates and they must field in ‘safe’ areas led by senior ministers.  You read about the confirmation of Lee Hsien Loong, Gan Kim Yong and other senior ministers as candidates.  The PAP is adopting a loss cutting strategy.  Lawrence Wong said there are no safe seats and expect strong competition. So, the ruling party is hoping to maintain no more losses: #Ng Chee Meng has a better chance of winning not in Sengkang but in a single seat. #Recycling a ‘retiring’ candidate to Marine Parade even if he loses will not affect the retirement or renewal plan. #Replacing an old candidate with a new face will not affect...

  新次序、新经济架构出现， 新加坡难道不需要新的政治结构吗？ 你说，PAP是不是有一点像特朗普，川普？ 特朗普的话，就要还手？ 川普的话，任由打压？ 国家可以顺从，但是世界人民可以反对，不买美国产品，如加拿大人不买美国货。同样的新加坡选民也可以选择如何定义特朗普，川普。不同定义会选出不同的代表，结果就是制衡的强或弱。 世界在变，国外局势在变，新的格局，新的挑战提早来临。过去60年的新加坡政治格局，难道不需要与时并进？依然一党独大吗？跟何况，PAP接班人一代不如一代。 看到外面在变，内部不需调整吗？以内部团结、全民共同前进，政府会照顾人民为诱饵，企图鱼目困珠，在大选制造不稳定，局势未明，来给一党独大加持，固本，增加政治资本。过去如此，现在更加露骨。 一党独大可否维护新加坡人的利益？回顾60年，这是不是改变的最佳时候、选择？特朗普的一意孤行，反映在PAP身上，就如：选区划分，你能不能说No吗？只可以默默接受HDB,。更正指示，你是假新闻，你怎么反驳？几时大选，也轮不到你说话？HDB, GST, 水税，你能反对加价吗？ 我们看到了特朗普对世界造成的伤害，却无能为力。即使美国对新加坡有顺差，也课10%。当一个人的权力过大，产出的伤害更大，你放心让PAP一党独大下去吗？你害怕前路茫茫，没有靠山，但是把前途让一个绰绰逼人，没有同情心，同理心的人来操控，你放心吗？ 选民有权决定如何定义特朗普或者川普。选择特朗普和川普，结局不一样哦！制衡的力度也不一样哦！三思喔！

  Realistic GE2025? 9 Neither Covid nor Tariffs can be as challenging as 1965 independent. Calling for unity is not an excuse for losing foresight. Please lah... ‘United’ does not mean giving all the voters to the PAP.  In difficult times, ‘check and balance’ plays an important role in helping Singaporeans and protecting their interests. Taking advantage of Covid failed. Taking advantage of Tariffs.  Will it work this time?  Voters need to think carefully.  Have your life improved or interest protected after the fall of the second GRC?  Singapore becomes less stable after more elected opposition MPs?    1965 is a life and death question.  We survive.  2025 is a maintenance and sustainability question. The PAP wants to maintain the status quo.  They are like, after starting a business, how to maintain and continue the business.  Singapore’s sustainability cannot depend on maintenance work.  We need new blood, new creat...

  大选迷思，PAP的困境13： 这就是PAP， 将军单挑，不领军。完全没有信心收复失地。几十年的保护新人策略，已经走到尽头？ 难怪，民间传言，新加坡一旦出事，有权有势的人将最先离开，当然也包括一大群所谓的将军，精英，高官。这些所谓的将军，只懂得幕后操作，与战场保持距离，根本没有胆量上前线领军。一旦出了问题，就只会在场外喊打喊杀，扮英雄。 最可悲的，竟然利用选区划分的漏洞，单独在战区外，独守空闺，在主战区（集选区）场外叫嚣，谁来和我单挑，也可以一对一，一对二，多角战，不怕。一个将军，竟然沦落到初级军官的角色，坚守一个小山头。不过，这位败将，还比一些新人好一点，他们还要依靠集选区的优势，在旧人带领下出征。 几十年来，PAP就是依赖这种保护策略，吸引候选人，设立安全区，让它不成比例的在国会拥有绝对多数。不论选区划分，还是各种各样的保护措施，总会遇到临界点，无法再像以前那样发挥功效。2025年的大选，将是考验保护网的效力，是否还可以像以前那样，如偿所愿。

  Realistic GE2025? 8 How committed are the PAP candidates? Just look at how they resign?  Like taking a new job rather than a new commitment.  Positive thinking:  The way the potential PAP candidates resign and join the GE 2025 race, is like they are taking a new job with a promotion.   Worse, some even justify their move as constitutional allows.  Where is the commitment? The PAP is going to introduce more than 30 new faces.  Some, if elected, will hold political appointments.  Great sacrifice? But with promotion, higher salaries and bonuses.  The others will be welcomed by listed companies, NTUC or GLCs to be their potential directors, consultants or advisers.   Win or loss, they are winners.  No income lost.  The one or two months notice of their resignations is to ensure they continue to have income even during the campaign period.  Whether they win or lose in GE 2025, their welfare is taken care of, including th...

  大选迷思，PAP的困境12： 江郎才尽，连官委议员都拉来做候选人， PAP还有什么原则？ 李光耀预言，当有一天行动党无法派出优秀候选人的时候，变天就有可能。今年的大选，行动党人数不够，连官委议员都拉来充数。最最严重的是，它已经违背当初“官委”的定义，而“独立”议员的真面目露出来了。 虽然，这次大选，变天不太可能。但是，行动党确实面对人才不足的政治现实。从目前推出的可能候选人看来，还是传统的人才库，即使是传统的来源，也是不足够进行替代，在没有办法的情形下，只好违背原则，向官位议员招手。现在是下架官委和非选区议员这个骗局的时候了。 难道，黄循财的魅力不够，吸引不到愿意奉献的候选人？黄循财自己说了，行动党没有包赢，和过去60年相比，败选风险增加不少。潜在的优秀候选人当然不愿意面对这么高的风险，即使选区任意划分，还是信心不足。可见，行动党候选人对政治的坚持，信念，远远不如反对党人。是时候珍惜反对党的贡献和制衡！ 行动党离人民有多远？部长拿意大利面和云吞面相比，可见他们离现实多远。他们只注重吃意大利面的候选人，而完全没有感受需要有云吞面的代表。他们要找的是吃得起意大利面的候选人，根本没有考虑贫富悬殊的问题。

  Realistic GE2025? 7 FEAR versus Vote for non-PAP candidates unconditionally. Why?  Right or Wrong? Positive thinking: Too afraid to vote for non-PAP candidates is a tradition and voting culture in Singapore.  The only way is to close your eyes to give the opposition a chance.  Conscience versus fear? Which do you choose?  Fear is one extreme.  It denies good opposition candidates being elected and second and third class PAP candidates walk into parliament easily. Unconditionally voting for non-PAP candidates is another extreme.  But why do people make this suggestion?  For too long, the unfair, undemocratic, gerrymandering practices make the suggestion as a last resort to break the one-party rule.    We have come to a stage that needs urgent change in parliament representation.  Opposition votes are under-represented and the PAP over-represented.  We need a balanced parliament, a fair share of the 40% or more opposition...

  大选迷思，PAP的困境11： 从李光耀故居，选区划分， 看行动党如何自设困境，远见何在？ 十年生死两茫茫，不思量，自难忘。--- 苏轼 李光耀走了，10年了，却依然活在新加坡每个角落，活在国人心中。不过，李光耀留下的遗产，要如何诠释，如何做到政治正确，如何从长计议，而非短期考虑？李光耀留给新加坡的精神遗产，一分为二，你追随哪一个？ 单单故居，就看出人民行动党的政治考量，是不是以新加坡人的利益出发？保留和不保留，这种困境是自己找来的。甚至，到现在，很多国人都不清楚这到底是怎么一回事，只知道两兄弟在争吵，加油加酱下，还闹出两个不孝子版本。 保留故居，是不是一种短期的政治考虑？10年过了，国人还想念李光耀吗？利用思念，勾起回忆，投票箱前，画上闪电？行动党没有想到，李显扬竟然坚持反对，导致故居引出两种立场，两种固执，到底谁违背了李光耀精神、原则？在政治上，就反映出不能单一思维，必须要有制衡。 在考虑故居的短期政治利益时，低估反对力量的强度。以为像对付反对党那样容易，没有想到却遇到另一面李光耀精神强力反击。作为李光耀的儿子，李显扬骨子里头，当然也存在、根深另一类坚持、固执精神。行动党只看到短期利益，没有看到长期伤害。或许，这只是一个人的自私自利，没有把党的利益考虑在先。 黄循财接下总理职位，当然必须处理这个困境。 如果保留故居，是一种短期的政治考虑，那么选区划分的考虑就更加短。新加坡是一个小红点，逃得了和尚，逃不了庙。分来划去，最后还是要面对选民。怀念李光耀，让人看到他的两种不同立场、坚持，你更加欣赏哪一个？

  Realistic GE2025? 6 60 years of one party rule, will GE2025 end it or extend it? To be or not to be? Step up or slow down? Positive thinking: Singaporeans want opposition but not in their backyards.  With a super low birth rate, your backyards will soon be taken over by others.  Act now! 40% popular votes is not enough, we need to step up the change.  Don’t let gerrymandering delay the awakening! Don’t let vouchers, discounts blur you. Don’t let PORMA silent you. Don’t let affordable housing confuse you. Even with lower than 50% popular votes, the PAP can still easily form the government.  In the 2013 Malaysian general election, Najib’s BN formed the government with 47% popular votes. While his opponent got 51%. The worst case scenario is the 2024 election in the UK, where Labour only got 33.7%. (look like Tony Tan’s presidency win). But with a comfortable majority seats to form the Labour government.    In Singapore, no one will expect the PAP’s vot...