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由上而下的小道政治容不下预己 - 新加坡是一个成功写照.


上一篇博文<接管市镇理事会的政治考量、政治代价>提到【反对苗头尽早杀】:
行动党自从立国以来,最有效的一招,就是当反对势力的苗头一出现,就马上给予消灭。从内安法开始,之后就是煽动罪,诽谤罪,破产等等,目的就是制止反对势力的扩张。这50多年,已经做到得心应手,无往不利的地步。


这里引用英国牛津大学 Professor Sir Paul Collier的论点进一步说明.Collier 教授分析人类从无政府状态到中央集权,再到包容性国家的过程中, 所面对的问题。他以经济学的从贫穷到繁荣角度来分析问题. 我们看到有些国家成功, 但是也有很多国家失败,甚至连中央集权都做不到(政令和政策无法下达到全国).

从无政府状态到中央集权,需要借助武力来达到目的。他认为中央集权国家(The centralised state)应该具备六个条件:政治上(精英)权力垄断,税收,司法,基础投资,富人(精英)间分享权力,(国家)具有借贷能力。

但是,中央集权还是无法顺利提高人民的所得和经济发展。而要通过包容性国家(Inclusive state)来取得财富和财富分配。理想的包容性国家所实行的政策,将顾及人民的需求和为所有的人制造平等机会。

通往包容性国家的道路有两条:小道和大道。(Minor Route and Major Route)

【小道的包容】

小道的包容是从上而下的精英政治。精英们掌握大权,以私人愿望在经济发展和财富分配上,实行对自己有利的政策。the elite are still in power and make selfishly-motivated choices between economic growth and the redistribution of wealth from the people to the elite.)



【大道的包容 -抗议的代价】

大道的包容则是从下而上的政治。下面的人民可以和精英分享权力。而在争取大道包容的过程中,我们必须了解抗议的经济学:奖励,回报和代价。(The major route to an inclusive state is through pressure from below to share power. To understand this route, we first need to understand the economics of protest: the incentives, rewards, and costs of protest.)



了解了抗议经济学中的代价问题,我们就可以明白为何人民行动党要处处对付反对党,要不择手段的把【反对苗头尽早杀】。当有新加坡人为了理想,站出来反对行动党,他们的代价是很高的,但是为了理想,他们愿意成为领头羊,牺牲者。可惜,一个,两个是成不了气候,第三,第四个有理想的人,就考虑代价。

抗议的代价.png

从上面的抗议代价表中,很明显的第三个(群)抗议者在衡量了理想的回报和代价后,得出一个负价值。这就印证了行动党为何一定要先下手为强的道理。行动党政府通过各种手段,都要阻止,制止反对势力的扩大。由此我们不难想象为什么,行动党要通过修改法令,更改政治的游戏规矩来达到小道包容的政治目的。

【大道的包容 - 对付社交媒体】

由于科技的发展,社交媒体的兴起,这对垄断传统媒体的行动党造成威胁。中东的茉莉花运动,提醒小道治国的精英集团要注意和管制新媒体和社交媒体的发展。我们从最近行动党部长的一系列对付假新闻的动作中,修改新闻条例,管制社交媒体中可以看到这种趋势。



【行动党拥抱小道包容】

行动党政府一直拒绝以大道包容治国,处处维护由上而下的精英治国政策。对于威胁行动党的反对势力,是见一个杀一个,而没有威胁力的反对势力则宽容对待。

因此,短期内,行动党的最大敌人,就成了它自己。在小道包容,从上而下的行动党精英政治下,又要照顾个人的私愿(如高薪和自我提升),又要分配经济发展的利益,如何做到公平,公正,让人信服?

尤其是在利益和政治权力分配的过程中,如何塑造国家认同(本地和外地人),如何让人觉得权力的分配公平(总统选举的游戏规则更改),如何在贫富悬殊下做到照顾人民。

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