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New Cold War. It’s still the Economy, stupid.

New Cold War.

It’s still the Economy, stupid.


Capitalism will continue to operate under the new economic cold war due to the Russia-Ukraine war.  Capitalism cares less about morality, social responsibility and even the environment.  

Countries that are US friendly or stay neutral will still operate the market economy.  There is still demand for fried chicken, burgers, or mobile phones even if the US friendly countries withdraw from the existing market, as what we  see in Russia now. The substitute or replacement will come very fast. 

At least two trade blocs, two supply chains will be competing and cooperating with each other.  

Stupid, it’s economic cold war, not the cold war of the past where military and politics are key players. We will see more competitions between RCEP/belt-road initiative and EU/US/Japan, and other countries taking advantage of joining or withdrawing or forming their own groups depending on the offers.

Economic cold war means the end of globalisation and the global supply chain system.  The economy and the market will operate under imperfect distribution, inefficiency, less optimal than before. Less cost savings mean inflation. For example, chips and parts supply, air travel, shipping, alternative and expensive sources are needed. Depending on the friendly level, some can get a good discount, others will have to pay more.  

This is a distorted market, a disrupted economy, and it is a new normal.  As this is capitalism, some people will continue to make money.


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