否极泰来 Piji Tailai

  Behave Accordingly or Shape Up US is told to 好自为之 (Hao Zi Wei Zhi)   Hao Zi Wei Zhi, in official Chinese  translation, is “to act accordingly and play a constructive role”.   The Trump Administration may interpret differently or totally ignore it.   However, any misunderstanding or misinterpreting will affect the world beyond the Sino-US relationship.    The beginning doesn’t look positive. A good start is half a success. We have yet to see any constructive action and the recent meeting between Xi and Putin indicates some deeper meanings.  Trump is only interested in talking to big countries. Will this lead to a Three-Kingdom stage?

  大选迷思，PAP的困境2： 选区划分，利多利少，边际效益递减？ 选区划分、检讨，一直被认为是人民行动党保护、 维护政权的手段。尤其是利用集选区，顺路带几个新人进入国会。好处是制造冗员市长，兼职议员，挂羊头卖狗肉为民服务？ 这个制度，对于小党，尤其致命，哪里找一组候选人，参加集选区竞选。当初设立的时候，只留下不到10议席作为单选区，其余都是集选区议员。虽然每一次大选，都有30%、40%选民投反对党，基于这个设计，的确让行动党获得几乎90%议席。 但是，选区划分，集选区制度，面临效益递减的问题。当初认为，只要把选区画得像马林百列那样，就可以高枕无忧。哪里知道，一个集选区被突破，又多一个被突破，变成不管怎么划分，都有风险，效益递减中。 效益递减，用黄循财的话来说，就是不能确保，行动党一定能够做回政府。因此，这让人同情选区划分委员会，如何做到让选民觉得公平、合理，而又不出现效益递减的危机。 调查指出，有26.8%选民，还没有决定选谁。虽然现在的精算、资料比以前丰富，但是，人心难测。怎样划分，都有一定风险，如何避免效益递减，或者降低递减速度。这是科学，又是人心，心理预测。这一次的划分，运气会落在谁家？

  From TikTok to RedNote, how effective is the government censorship? How about our POR MA? Trump signed an Executive Order to remove the federal government censorship.  Is this something like Singapore removing our infamous PORMA?  Yes or maybe no. Biden banned TikTok and so some TikTokers moved to RedNote. Social media is hard to control, an open market with free choice.  POR MA on unfriendly social media does not mean readers will move to mainstream media or government friendly websites. They seek alternatives, some with surprising, unthinkable outcomes.  G E is coming. Maybe we will see more POR MA cases and more alternative social media sites.  Biden tried very hard to promote his “political correct” way of censorship.  It ended up in failed presidency, senate and house elections.  

  大选迷思，PAP的困境1： 冗员市长，兼职议员，为民服务？ 以特朗普新的政府效率为标准，新加坡的5个市长，将是首选被解散的职位。事实上，到底有多少人知道他们的工作是什么，到底他们如何服务人民？还有那些兼职的PAP议员，到底有多少人认识他们，或许，多数认识他们的人，都是关联他们的全职工作。 以特朗普的奋斗精神，那些通过集选区，不知如何中选，糊里糊涂当上议员的人，根本就没有资格拿国家的薪水。而偏偏在新加坡，这些lombang议员很多，身在国会，心想lobang。 这是SG60的包袱，政治遗产，说白了，这要看黄循财是否有勇气面对改革。60年的政府，不可能没有留下残渣。利用冗员，制造理由，为民服务，只不过想维持政治资本，高高在上的了解民情。新加坡人难道不知道吗？尤其是，年轻选民。 PAP已经陷入无法左右逢源的困境。不想深入民间，不想做苦工，只想通过官方管道，利用国家财政，来巩固政治上不倒，除非每天FORMA，封锁社交媒体，把不利自己的都说成假新闻，不然，无法停止民间、咖啡店交流。 60年的成长，看似欣欣向荣，不过，却遇到不少困境，冗员市长、议员，只不过冰山一角。新加坡要往前走，不是简单喊口号，全民一心，团结一致，而是如何面对执政困境，改革改变旧模式，让选民信任，新加坡明天会更好。

  To the 26.8% undecided voters, will you give a chance to the Opposition? According to a recent Blackbox Research survey, most of the voters have already decided which party to vote for in the coming general election.  Clearly, most of them will prefer the PAP. The only hope that the Opposition candidates can get into the parliament is the 26.8% uncertain voters, most of them young Singaporeans.  Although the sample size is over 1,000 respondents, it actually reflects the political reality here. The PAP has a huge advantage over alternative parties, from PA, NTUC, grassroots organisations, to clan associations. How will the undecided voters see Lawrence Wong, and the coming vouchers, subsidies or discounts? Will they convince the PAP is always right in protecting Singaporean interests? And the model of high growth, high costs just needs little re-alignments.  26.8% undecided and uncertain voters will have to decide Singapore's future.  Although the trend in the...

  25%选民决定大选胜败， 75%各自归队，心中有数。 根据一项民意调查 （Blackbox Research)，新加坡选民心中有数，选前已经决定，把选票投给哪一个政党。因此，对于那些一向在大选中得票率处于30%的反对党，必须超强努力，运气特加才可能有所突破。 新加坡的现实是选民倾向执政党。所以，几乎没有人预测，PAP会倒台。虽然，26.8%选民还没有决定选谁，但是，这些票不可能都投给反对党，即使大多数倾向反对党，小的反对党还是无法过关，进入国会。 上一回大选，人民行动党利用新冠危机举行大选，以为可以利用危机捞到政治资本。结果，失去多一个集选区。类似的危机感，2025年也有。 上一次捞不到好处，不表示这次不成功。 因此，像工人党就警告党工、支持者和选民，不可忽视国会出现没有反对党议员的局面。 PAP的问题是小输，还是小赢，不是失去政权的危机。反对党却面对小赢，小输，甚至全盘届输的命运。26.8%的中间选民，以年轻人为主，他们会如何决定新加坡的未来，将来属于他们，由他们做决定，似乎合情合理？

  From TikTok to Rednote, where are the US creativities? Most Americans do not like China.  Their government wants to contain China, banning or restricting trade with China.  Despite all these efforts, young Americans like to use Chinese apps, from TikTok to Rednote. Where are the US creativities? Rednote is not ready for its English version. But the US users are rushing to join Xiaohongshu, the little red book which is related to Mao Zedong.  When a social media app is easy to use, popular, and connects to the ground, users will be willing to join, whether Mao or non-Mao. The western or American narrative of “bad China” fails badly in social media.  And worse, they are not able to introduce better design, more creative products.  Why? Some say it is a “systematic failure” where “ownself check ownself” never works. Or they constantly check, ban others but fail to improve themselves.     The whole US is facing “systematic failures”, from ...

  后知后觉， 还是一意孤行， 追求经济至上的后果。 李显龙最近强调，引进新移民和外劳必须谨慎，小心处理。事情都发生了这么久，现在才来强调，是不是一种后知后觉。因为，新加坡要持续发展，必须引进外来人口，不然，就像马斯克说的，会绝种、灭绝。 人才济济的P A P，怎么不会想到后果？现在，才来强调引进外人，需要维持平衡、持续。尤其是，怎样让外人融入新加坡，具有一颗新加坡心，处处维护新加坡的利益。可能，P A P太有把握，太有信心，选民一定会支持它，而后果是可以调整、美化的。 世界上有选举的地方，外来人口、中产阶级、工作机会等，给执政党带来巨大压力，甚至倒台。新加坡还多一个难题：部长高薪是建立在高经济成长上。因此，李显龙提出这个敏感课题，看来更加像说服选民，不用担心，继续给力P A P，政府会谨慎处理。李显龙把难题，留给黄循财，选民会如何选择？信还是不信？

  Last month: NRIC  This month: Walkabout  Next Month: ? Vouchers The NRIC and Walkabout Controversy:  A PR Crisis or Psychology Fear The way the PAP handles the walkabout controversy (and also NRIC) does not look professional enough. Leaving it to the Police (or the parliament) may be an excuse that may lead to a bigger public relations crisis. So far, the mainstream media is forced to cover the story of walkabout.  Looking at the ruling party’s behaviour inside and outside parliament, the walkabout controversy seems to be a lack of preparedness and planning.  Perhaps, it is just a small constituency issue, different from the national issue of NRIC.    However, you can see the local responses of the out of touch PAP.  SimplyGo u turn. NTUC Income u turn. NRIC u turn.  Walkabout turn or no turn.  It is a testing time for the PAP’s PR. Mainstream media can’t help you if you score your own goals.   Maybe, the psychologi...

  前进党遇上行动党， 罗生门，还是越抹越黑？ 看到PAP和PSP的家访、街坊纠纷，互相指责，令人想到罗生门。或者，有意无意想要把事情搞到罗生门，让人不知真相。结果是支持者各自归队，只相信自己的版本。选民又会怎么看？以大欺小？还是，小的有意搞事？ 刚刚才进入大选年，选情加温了。罗生门会不会发展到越抹越黑的地步。这对哪一个党比较有利？一党独大的PAP，是不是如黄循财说的，感觉到压力很大。黄循财说过，不能确保来临大选，PAP一定做政府。因此，支持者爱党心切，过度表现？ 黄循财也承认，从世界局势看，很多执政党倒台。从2024年，一直延伸到今年。这股风，好像没有停下，德国、加拿大，甚至韩国。领导的担心，当然影响支持者的忧心，甚至，不排除部分支持者担心、忧心过度，需要心理治疗，安慰。

  Gaming for seniors, credit card debts for juniors? In Singapore, seniors have cash for gaming, while young Singaporeans survive on debts.   Cash is king. According to Zaobao, seniors in Singapore on average spend $2278 yearly on gaming, like TOTO, 4D. Oh! Seniors are rich and most likely do not borrow from credit card debts or not qualify for one. On the contrary, young Singaporeans have to incur debts to survive.  A Straits Times report said, Singaporeans fall further into credit card debt as rollover balances hit record high. Young and employed, card companies are more than willing to lend.    What kind of situation do you prefer? Old and cash rich and has money to buy TOTO, 4D or go casinos. Alternatively, young and short of cash, needs to borrow money to survive.  Is this a healthy development? Perhaps, the young are not earning enough but refuse to cut down spending.   Having fixed income, salary against raising housing, living, t...

  新加坡60年，梦在哪里？ 大选如何诠释新加坡梦？ SG60大选年，总理新年献辞，去年经济表现比预期好。国家油水多了，人民的梦想应该如愿实现了吗？每一个人的梦不同，路不同，起跑点不同，所以，能够做到大多数梦境成真，不容易。所以，只能说经济好，让国人自我解读。 黄循财说，以《携手前进新加坡》作为基础，建立一个更加自信，团结一心的新加坡。我们怎么解读齐心合力，新加坡60年所取得的成绩，都归功于政府，PAP政府让新加坡人梦想成真了吗？不知道。最少有一部分人，的确做到钱上加钱，房产越来越多。 事实上，梦想也与时并进，政府了解到不可能满足人人发财，财源滚进的梦想。因此，鼓励人们考虑非物质的梦想，从另一个角度诠释成功，鼓励新加坡人追求本身的梦，而非传统的经济梦。真的，不是人人都能发财，都幸运获得高薪工作。 只是这个追梦，如果与政府理想的梦不一样，那会产生什么后果？会不会出现与政府不同调的声音、做法、假新闻、真新闻、真假难分的困境？鼓励追梦，尤其是，和以前不一样的梦，会不会对大选产生影响？这个非物质的梦，对新加坡政治加分还是减分，还是只是南柯一梦？