否极泰来 Piji Tailai

  新加坡60年，梦在哪里？ 大选如何诠释新加坡梦？ SG60大选年，总理新年献辞，去年经济表现比预期好。国家油水多了，人民的梦想应该如愿实现了吗？每一个人的梦不同，路不同，起跑点不同，所以，能够做到大多数梦境成真，不容易。所以，只能说经济好，让国人自我解读。 黄循财说，以《携手前进新加坡》作为基础，建立一个更加自信，团结一心的新加坡。我们怎么解读齐心合力，新加坡60年所取得的成绩，都归功于政府，PAP政府让新加坡人梦想成真了吗？不知道。最少有一部分人，的确做到钱上加钱，房产越来越多。 事实上，梦想也与时并进，政府了解到不可能满足人人发财，财源滚进的梦想。因此，鼓励人们考虑非物质的梦想，从另一个角度诠释成功，鼓励新加坡人追求本身的梦，而非传统的经济梦。真的，不是人人都能发财，都幸运获得高薪工作。 只是这个追梦，如果与政府理想的梦不一样，那会产生什么后果？会不会出现与政府不同调的声音、做法、假新闻、真新闻、真假难分的困境？鼓励追梦，尤其是，和以前不一样的梦，会不会对大选产生影响？这个非物质的梦，对新加坡政治加分还是减分，还是只是南柯一梦？

  2024 a Year of Order in Chaos 2025 is expected to have no improvement, especially the unexpected new Trump Administration. 2024 is soon to be history which brings many uncertainties and chaotic developments in the world. However, the world survives and there are orders in the chaotic world. A multi-polar world will see different orders emerge. What will be the new international order? Can a chaotic situation be made in favour of a super power and the winner takes all?  Very unlikely in 2025 and beyond.  Perhaps, a backfired chao may happen as a new system will emerge, replacing or co-existing with the old and weaker order.  No longer a superpower can program and make a chao always in her favour. This applies to the world, to the USA, and perhaps to Singapore too.

  从马来人的困境到马来人的敌人， 唯恐天下不乱之马哈迪。 天下大乱，马哈迪才可能再一次当枭雄？从困境到敌人，似乎说明马哈迪已经走到了尽头。困境只是财富再分配，当然，他和他的同道分到大的，马来商人、马来中产阶级其次。但是，绝大多数土著依然离不开困境。 敌人就不同了。这表示分配还不够彻底，需要强夺，因为有人敌人，有了目标，只要把敌人的一切，拿来解救处于困境中土著、马来人，马来西亚的所有财富问题都可以解决。 这是一种极端危险的鼓动。马哈迪当然明白，事实上，政客也都清楚，也愿意配合演出。因为，这是政治机会，错过了不再来。但是，最会的演变却可能造成流血、恐怖事件。50年前，不是发生了一单吗？ 这是一个非常棘手的问题。我们看到安华三步前，两步后，又开放又保守，向左又向右，甚至找不到方向。幸好，马哈迪的时代已经结束，影响力也式微。

  PAP is like chicken ribs 鸡肋 No meat, no taste but it is a waste to throw away. Many people believe the PAP will always be in power.  Yes. This is a “chicken ribs” mentality.  Even though the PAP cannot promise more equal distribution of wealth, affordable housing or health care.  They are still the best as there is no alternative. So, psychologically speaking, Singaporeans cannot throw away the PAP.  And the PAP also believes so. No taste, no meat to offer, but Singaoreans still need the PAP.    The development of capitalism in the USA and UK, which Singapore follows closely, has shown their many problems, unsolved rich-poor gap, smaller middle class, immigration, low wages etc. And we cannot expect the PAP to solve similar problems.  However, the US and UK voters are willing to see change even though they also faced the “chicken ribs” problems - no good alternative.  It will be a psychological breakthrough if we throw away the chicken...

  大选来了， PAP不得不顺应民情？ 运气好的话，还会收到大红包？ 2024年, 人民行动党好像诸事不顺, 从新易通, 英康, 再到身份证登记号码, 一直在反转. 开始推出时,似乎顺顺利利,媒体大声叫好. 最后,却不得不纠正, 道歉.   当然, 反转, 纠正不正是顺水推舟, 顺应民情的表现吗? 大选快要来, 没有必要做出让选民反感的事情. 何况得罪的是多数人,不是少数选民. 多少人搭地铁, 多少人买保险,更加不要说每个人都有的身份证号码. 为了消除民间怨气, 讨好选民, 运气好的话,明年一开年, 政府就会宣布大红包. 一方面刺激消费, 另一方面,选民也开心, 希望大选时获得回报, 增加PAP得票.  政府不止管收钱,更加重要是如何分配钱,红包当然是一个选项.   诸事不顺中, 也看出部长的能力. 如果观察一下,今年和两年前的人民行动党中央执行委员会的名单, 就有一位负责身份证号的女部长不再名单内, 这是不是意味她的能力出现问题, 会不会再度出来竞选?

  The Withdrawal of Allianz: A Win for the People or  A PAP’s Election Strategy? It looks like a win-win for Singaporeans and the PAP. Perhaps, the PAP understands “Don’t lose big for small things.” (不要因小失大). The PAP is willing to compromise on many small things, like SimplyGo, even the recent NRIC issue.   But when it comes to money matters, GST, BTO, even the public transport fares, they will insist these are the right things to increase. The outcome of the Allianz withdrawal is that no one loses money.   Allianz can find another investment opportunity. NTUC can find new way of doing insurance business. While the PAP can claim credit for protecting Singapore interests.