否极泰来 Piji Tailai

  25%选民决定大选胜败， 75%各自归队，心中有数。 根据一项民意调查 （Blackbox Research)，新加坡选民心中有数，选前已经决定，把选票投给哪一个政党。因此，对于那些一向在大选中得票率处于30%的反对党，必须超强努力，运气特加才可能有所突破。 新加坡的现实是选民倾向执政党。所以，几乎没有人预测，PAP会倒台。虽然，26.8%选民还没有决定选谁，但是，这些票不可能都投给反对党，即使大多数倾向反对党，小的反对党还是无法过关，进入国会。 上一回大选，人民行动党利用新冠危机举行大选，以为可以利用危机捞到政治资本。结果，失去多一个集选区。类似的危机感，2025年也有。 上一次捞不到好处，不表示这次不成功。 因此，像工人党就警告党工、支持者和选民，不可忽视国会出现没有反对党议员的局面。 PAP的问题是小输，还是小赢，不是失去政权的危机。反对党却面对小赢，小输，甚至全盘届输的命运。26.8%的中间选民，以年轻人为主，他们会如何决定新加坡的未来，将来属于他们，由他们做决定，似乎合情合理？

  From TikTok to Rednote, where are the US creativities? Most Americans do not like China.  Their government wants to contain China, banning or restricting trade with China.  Despite all these efforts, young Americans like to use Chinese apps, from TikTok to Rednote. Where are the US creativities? Rednote is not ready for its English version. But the US users are rushing to join Xiaohongshu, the little red book which is related to Mao Zedong.  When a social media app is easy to use, popular, and connects to the ground, users will be willing to join, whether Mao or non-Mao. The western or American narrative of “bad China” fails badly in social media.  And worse, they are not able to introduce better design, more creative products.  Why? Some say it is a “systematic failure” where “ownself check ownself” never works. Or they constantly check, ban others but fail to improve themselves.     The whole US is facing “systematic failures”, from ...

  后知后觉， 还是一意孤行， 追求经济至上的后果。 李显龙最近强调，引进新移民和外劳必须谨慎，小心处理。事情都发生了这么久，现在才来强调，是不是一种后知后觉。因为，新加坡要持续发展，必须引进外来人口，不然，就像马斯克说的，会绝种、灭绝。 人才济济的P A P，怎么不会想到后果？现在，才来强调引进外人，需要维持平衡、持续。尤其是，怎样让外人融入新加坡，具有一颗新加坡心，处处维护新加坡的利益。可能，P A P太有把握，太有信心，选民一定会支持它，而后果是可以调整、美化的。 世界上有选举的地方，外来人口、中产阶级、工作机会等，给执政党带来巨大压力，甚至倒台。新加坡还多一个难题：部长高薪是建立在高经济成长上。因此，李显龙提出这个敏感课题，看来更加像说服选民，不用担心，继续给力P A P，政府会谨慎处理。李显龙把难题，留给黄循财，选民会如何选择？信还是不信？

  Last month: NRIC  This month: Walkabout  Next Month: ? Vouchers The NRIC and Walkabout Controversy:  A PR Crisis or Psychology Fear The way the PAP handles the walkabout controversy (and also NRIC) does not look professional enough. Leaving it to the Police (or the parliament) may be an excuse that may lead to a bigger public relations crisis. So far, the mainstream media is forced to cover the story of walkabout.  Looking at the ruling party’s behaviour inside and outside parliament, the walkabout controversy seems to be a lack of preparedness and planning.  Perhaps, it is just a small constituency issue, different from the national issue of NRIC.    However, you can see the local responses of the out of touch PAP.  SimplyGo u turn. NTUC Income u turn. NRIC u turn.  Walkabout turn or no turn.  It is a testing time for the PAP’s PR. Mainstream media can’t help you if you score your own goals.   Maybe, the psychologi...

  前进党遇上行动党， 罗生门，还是越抹越黑？ 看到PAP和PSP的家访、街坊纠纷，互相指责，令人想到罗生门。或者，有意无意想要把事情搞到罗生门，让人不知真相。结果是支持者各自归队，只相信自己的版本。选民又会怎么看？以大欺小？还是，小的有意搞事？ 刚刚才进入大选年，选情加温了。罗生门会不会发展到越抹越黑的地步。这对哪一个党比较有利？一党独大的PAP，是不是如黄循财说的，感觉到压力很大。黄循财说过，不能确保来临大选，PAP一定做政府。因此，支持者爱党心切，过度表现？ 黄循财也承认，从世界局势看，很多执政党倒台。从2024年，一直延伸到今年。这股风，好像没有停下，德国、加拿大，甚至韩国。领导的担心，当然影响支持者的忧心，甚至，不排除部分支持者担心、忧心过度，需要心理治疗，安慰。

  Gaming for seniors, credit card debts for juniors? In Singapore, seniors have cash for gaming, while young Singaporeans survive on debts.   Cash is king. According to Zaobao, seniors in Singapore on average spend $2278 yearly on gaming, like TOTO, 4D. Oh! Seniors are rich and most likely do not borrow from credit card debts or not qualify for one. On the contrary, young Singaporeans have to incur debts to survive.  A Straits Times report said, Singaporeans fall further into credit card debt as rollover balances hit record high. Young and employed, card companies are more than willing to lend.    What kind of situation do you prefer? Old and cash rich and has money to buy TOTO, 4D or go casinos. Alternatively, young and short of cash, needs to borrow money to survive.  Is this a healthy development? Perhaps, the young are not earning enough but refuse to cut down spending.   Having fixed income, salary against raising housing, living, t...