否极泰来 Piji Tailai

  2024 a Year of Order in Chaos 2025 is expected to have no improvement, especially the unexpected new Trump Administration. 2024 is soon to be history which brings many uncertainties and chaotic developments in the world. However, the world survives and there are orders in the chaotic world. A multi-polar world will see different orders emerge. What will be the new international order? Can a chaotic situation be made in favour of a super power and the winner takes all?  Very unlikely in 2025 and beyond.  Perhaps, a backfired chao may happen as a new system will emerge, replacing or co-existing with the old and weaker order.  No longer a superpower can program and make a chao always in her favour. This applies to the world, to the USA, and perhaps to Singapore too.

  从马来人的困境到马来人的敌人， 唯恐天下不乱之马哈迪。 天下大乱，马哈迪才可能再一次当枭雄？从困境到敌人，似乎说明马哈迪已经走到了尽头。困境只是财富再分配，当然，他和他的同道分到大的，马来商人、马来中产阶级其次。但是，绝大多数土著依然离不开困境。 敌人就不同了。这表示分配还不够彻底，需要强夺，因为有人敌人，有了目标，只要把敌人的一切，拿来解救处于困境中土著、马来人，马来西亚的所有财富问题都可以解决。 这是一种极端危险的鼓动。马哈迪当然明白，事实上，政客也都清楚，也愿意配合演出。因为，这是政治机会，错过了不再来。但是，最会的演变却可能造成流血、恐怖事件。50年前，不是发生了一单吗？ 这是一个非常棘手的问题。我们看到安华三步前，两步后，又开放又保守，向左又向右，甚至找不到方向。幸好，马哈迪的时代已经结束，影响力也式微。

  PAP is like chicken ribs 鸡肋 No meat, no taste but it is a waste to throw away. Many people believe the PAP will always be in power.  Yes. This is a “chicken ribs” mentality.  Even though the PAP cannot promise more equal distribution of wealth, affordable housing or health care.  They are still the best as there is no alternative. So, psychologically speaking, Singaporeans cannot throw away the PAP.  And the PAP also believes so. No taste, no meat to offer, but Singaoreans still need the PAP.    The development of capitalism in the USA and UK, which Singapore follows closely, has shown their many problems, unsolved rich-poor gap, smaller middle class, immigration, low wages etc. And we cannot expect the PAP to solve similar problems.  However, the US and UK voters are willing to see change even though they also faced the “chicken ribs” problems - no good alternative.  It will be a psychological breakthrough if we throw away the chicken...

  大选来了， PAP不得不顺应民情？ 运气好的话，还会收到大红包？ 2024年, 人民行动党好像诸事不顺, 从新易通, 英康, 再到身份证登记号码, 一直在反转. 开始推出时,似乎顺顺利利,媒体大声叫好. 最后,却不得不纠正, 道歉.   当然, 反转, 纠正不正是顺水推舟, 顺应民情的表现吗? 大选快要来, 没有必要做出让选民反感的事情. 何况得罪的是多数人,不是少数选民. 多少人搭地铁, 多少人买保险,更加不要说每个人都有的身份证号码. 为了消除民间怨气, 讨好选民, 运气好的话,明年一开年, 政府就会宣布大红包. 一方面刺激消费, 另一方面,选民也开心, 希望大选时获得回报, 增加PAP得票.  政府不止管收钱,更加重要是如何分配钱,红包当然是一个选项.   诸事不顺中, 也看出部长的能力. 如果观察一下,今年和两年前的人民行动党中央执行委员会的名单, 就有一位负责身份证号的女部长不再名单内, 这是不是意味她的能力出现问题, 会不会再度出来竞选?

  The Withdrawal of Allianz: A Win for the People or  A PAP’s Election Strategy? It looks like a win-win for Singaporeans and the PAP. Perhaps, the PAP understands “Don’t lose big for small things.” (不要因小失大). The PAP is willing to compromise on many small things, like SimplyGo, even the recent NRIC issue.   But when it comes to money matters, GST, BTO, even the public transport fares, they will insist these are the right things to increase. The outcome of the Allianz withdrawal is that no one loses money.   Allianz can find another investment opportunity. NTUC can find new way of doing insurance business. While the PAP can claim credit for protecting Singapore interests.

  马斯克的灭绝论 新加坡的现实 千万人口的大梦 我们的心胸有多大？ 世界首富马斯克说，新加坡0.97的生育率，将会把小红点带向灭绝。如果把越来越多不结婚的人群加上，人口替代雪上加霜。对于精算的马斯克，灭绝机会非常之高。灭绝不等于亡国，新加坡精神还可以继续。 这是新加坡的现实。其他发达国家也面对低生育率的问题。PAP很多方面都行，偏偏这个传宗接代解决不了。在东南亚，还是自杀率最高的国家。几代单传，甚至无后代接班，将屡见不鲜。富了，有钱了，却落得如此下场。 但是，我们却有一个梦想：千万人口。哦！不是梦想，是构思、规划。以现代设计构思规划千万人的城市，没有错。问题出在核心新加坡人。在今天6百万人中，不是本地出生，很可能已经接近一半。再加4百万，我们的心，安吗？ 啊！我们的心胸有多大？我们的财富，很可能传给外人。而我们又如何保障，获得财富者有着新加坡核心价值。或许，我们也应该构思规划长远的人口问题，进口婴孩，进行10、20年的教育培训，强化核心新加坡价值。相对于短期的、不用投资，直接进口大人。哈！哈！一笑? 哭笑不得？

  “Sir, in the event of a serious threat of a freak election, would you do the unthinkable, that is, send in the army?"  It is worth listening to what Lee Kuan Yew said and answered in 2009.  It is also equally important we have a capable president designed to prevent bad things from happening.  “Freak election, if there is any, is a one time event and the PAP will be back again.”,  Lee said.   2 years after the unthinkable Question, a GRC was lost in 2011. And then another one in 2020.  Singapore voters must vote without fear, vote for the best candidates, whether PAP or opposition, to form the government.  

  Alamak!  还有比拜登愚蠢、失智的总统！ 尹锡悦的短命戒严令。 前一秒拜登特赦儿子，下一秒尹锡悦宣布军法统治。 不知道底细的人，还以为他们在演双簧，一前一后，让世人大开眼界，政治人物的真正面目，原来如此自私自利、愚蠢、失去理智。 尹锡悦的命运，政治前途可以说已经终结。现在，连他的政党都要他退党。他把整个国家，所属政党都拖下水。我们应该如何形容这样的领袖、政客？无言。检察官出身的人，竟然不懂法律。 短命戒严令是一时的。但是，拜登的特赦令，却是长久的。不过，伤害也是永久的。美国的形象、法制、国际秩序的维护，已经很难取信于人。难怪，选民要换人做，不是对手太好，而是自己太笨。

  In Singapore, doing the right thing is called foresight, forward thinking even if it hurts the populations but not in Indonesia. We increase G S T knowing clearly the cost of living will be affected. This is the right thing to teach Singaporeans to leave no debt for future generations.  An unwelcome decision but a forward thinking, necessary decision.    While in Indonesia, they decided to delay their V A T’s increase.  Maybe they understand the cost of living issue better. The increase was the policy of the previous president, now with the new president comes the delay. Policy can change and new leaders can make the change according to different situations.  With a new prime minister, have you seen the change in Singapore?  Government needs to find nourishment for the people but not offer rich sacrifices after passing.