否极泰来 Piji Tailai

  Free newspapers, any taker？ 免费报纸，有人要吗？ Free newspapers, any taker？ English, Chinese, Malay,  Three identity messages. Three different headlines. Three target audiences. Aiming for the same negative politics.     FEAR. 免费报纸，有人要吗？ 英文，中文，马来文。 三个认同。 三个标题。 三个目标。 传达相同的负面政治。 恐吓。

  行动党炒作议题策略失效： 失去部长，种族议题，外国干涉，个人攻击， 英康解释不清。 选情告急，试图模糊选民的关注点。 失去部长组不成政府 - 领导力差，经不起考验， 无能的表现。 种族议题 - 故意挑起种族议题，转移焦点。 外国干涉 - 故意影视反对党候选人被海外操控。 个人攻击 - 恶人先告状，行动党什么时候对反对党仁慈？ 英康解释不清 - 逃避责任，顾左右而言他。 行动党抛出的几个课题，几乎每一次大选，都出现。有人批评，这是制造恐慌，在关税大战上，添油加酱，进一步让选民觉得，只有行动党才是救世主，只有获得强大委托，才能做好政府，不需要制衡。 每一次大选，都制造危机感。当然，每一次都顺利过关。难道，选民不会觉得这是狼来了吗？目地就是不让反对党优秀候选人进入国会。够了！够了！ 是时候跟行动党说不，NO. 与其担心失去几个部长， 不如努力为民效劳。 与其不愿被批评， 倒不如坦诚面对选民。 如果努力为民服务，根本不用担心部长落选。 如果真心解决民困，根本就不担心部长被批评。 如果没有掩盖事实，就无需躲躲闪闪，把英康真相说出来。

  Realistic check: WP’s dream teams versus PAP’s redundant ministers. PAP’s East strategy is to keep Tan See Leng but not other ministers there. PAP has a plan that is to ‘abandon’ ministers, recycling residual ministers in the East.  Except Tan See Leng who is still useful.  As Singaporeans have higher regards for ministers, their presence there is to help to maintain the status quo.   This is why you see Gan Kim Yong, Masagos, Edwin Tong or even Ng Chee Meng.   They can be easily replaced by younger PAP MPs or reposted to NTUC or GLCs. Facing the WP’s dream teams, these redundant ministers look strong outside but weak inside. (外强中干） They know very well this will be their last contribution to the PAP, just like Heng Swee Keat did in 2020.  The 14 WP new faces form the backbone of the dream teams.  They are the best you can assemble so far.   They need support and encouragement to show there is a hope for a balanced parliament.  And so, ...

  失去几名部长， 加强制衡力度； 考验4G治国能力， 不会影响政府运作。 李光耀已经走了这么多年， 新加坡依旧舞照跳，马虽然没有照跑， 但是，赌场，万字，多多依然旺盛，幸运儿也出了几个；不见国难迹象，只见涨涨涨！！！ 失去几名部长，让行动党痛定思痛，好好的解决涨涨涨。失去几名部长，就是做得不够好，生活费，组屋，保健，养老，让人不放心；中下层没有获得合理、公平、应得的照顾。 颜金勇是第一个。鸡肋，可有可无。把它空降榜鹅，就是要阻挡改变。他的形象与榜鹅的青春格格不入。 马善高是第二个。上回大选，他连李显龙、李显扬也搞不清。至于他的政绩，无论国事选区事，可以说一言难尽！ 黄志明是第三个。这位前总理公署部长、不管部长，可以继续留在职总，继续担任大位，为劳工出声。 唐振辉是第四位。足球世界杯，等啊！等到花儿也谢了。他的部门可以很容易找到其他议员接任。 当然，还有李显龙，英兰妮，尚穆根，维文，傅海燕，杨莉明，这些部长，在安全区，应该没有被淘汰。总计，行动党还有很多老部长可用，不差以上4位。 给予行动党强大委托，就像把小孩宠坏。小孩要经过失败、挫折，才会长大。4G要成长，就必须接受失去几位部长的教训，面对制衡，才会做得更好。

  From Marine Parade to Punggol, Tampines and other blue zones WITH LOVE We Step Up and continue volunteering for the Workers Party No more Marine Parade-Braddel Height No problem We continue our work in the East Coast, Tampines-changkat, Jalan Kayu, and other WP contesting constituencies.   Regardless of race, religion, language and culture,  We never stop.  Never give up. We believe in a balanced parliament and a loyal opposition. Working for Singapore! 

  出现4角战 是不是这个集选区管得太烂？ 人人都觉得有机可乘？ 当然在野互斗对行动党是有利。 有没有做事，选民很清楚。过去的表现，有记录，逃也逃不掉。三个在野党都看上淡滨尼，大家的眼光都一样吗？还是，只在乎参与，试一试水温？无论如何，这个选区一定有一点问题，不然为何要冒着失去安柜金的风险，来此一游？ 4角战当然比2角战来得激烈，选情升温，尤其是进入比较危急，没有牌可以打的时候，就往往可以借道外部势力介入，影响、左右选举来暗示某些 人获得外来支持，增加胜选机会。这一来，所有政党都必须出来坚持反对外来干涉、干扰。大家都回到相同的起跑点上。 仔细想一想，淡滨尼之战，只能说介于行动党和工人党。 这个选区一直以来，都没有出现强烈的竞争。过去依靠大风得到超过40%支持，不表示这个历史可以长青下去。政治的变比变脸还来得快。 行动党一开头就先确定淡滨尼团队名单，也无意改变。不像榜鹅，马林百列，举棋不定。这说明，行动党对淡滨尼有一定信心。但是，选情是一个变数，风向一转，就如，记者一直追问，工人党是否因为马来族群，才来淡滨尼竞选？这问题似乎更像事后孔明，或借刀杀人，想要落实某些论点。现在，似乎看到一些蛛丝马迹。 选情还在变化中，这个课题还在发展中。除了提名日的策略、战术上的点兵选将外，接下来是议题的发挥，布阵上不足，就要通过课题炒作来完成既定目标。

  Don't ask RIGHT or WRONG. Think Win or Lose. Participation is good but a win is sweeter. This is the PAP game plan. They want to ‘win’. Otherwise, why is the need for gerrymandering? Have they cared about democracy? No. They just want to maintain the status quo, passing constitutional amendments as they like.   Election game is far beyond participation but how to get into the parliament.  The PAP can have the luxury to provide free riders to their candidates.  No opposition can do that. You fight for it. Still remember the ‘by election’ effect?  Is this a democratic strategy?  It is not about participation but winning or losing.  If you can't get into the parliament, there is very little contribution you can make. The new GE direction is winning, not so much on participation. There are opportunity costs for a walkover.  On May 3, we will know the result. 

  行动党布阵策略错误？ 颜金勇拉高平均年龄， 保守的象征， 改变的绊脚石。 过气、过期的4G颜金勇， 真的能够绊倒工人党吗？ 3G张志贤，4G王瑞杰，已经人走茶凉。 为什么3G颜金勇要来榜鹅，难道这里的海鲜特别香吗？从接班人的安排，颜金勇是不可能做总理。他的前路比2020年的王瑞杰相差太远了。王是以未来总理的身份来豪赌。颜金勇没有什么好输，只有剩余价值。 颜金勇的作用，就像死鱼，希望能够为行动党翻身。这是否尊重选民吗？一个几乎退休，过气，过期的人物，在竞选期间，他只是看管副总理，说不一定大选过后，就没有了，胜选变资政，落选就退休。 榜鹅是一个新选区，选民希望看到年轻、改变的气氛。 颜金勇的出现，把原本有一点亮眼、朝气的行动党团队，变成老态龙钟，暮气沉沉。 工人党的出现，新空气、新气象，就是让人觉得改变的到来。 东海岸是一个旧选区，选民有怀旧感，而王瑞杰又是总理接班人，因此，可以给行动党一个机会。榜鹅就很不一样。原本行动党建立的年轻形象，一下子就被颜金勇破坏了。为什么行动党不敢派年轻部长来拉高人气？ 颜金勇在为行动党做最后的拼搏，利用他的剩余价值为党做出贡献。可以算是勇气可嘉。不适合的人放错位置，很可能造成不可弥补的损失。选民知道发生了什么事情，拿看管副总理的高位，真的能够顺利过关吗？

  Failed Constitution Amendment? PAP Chinese candidates becoming free riders in GRCs, for example Ang Mo Kio, Nee Soon.   GRC is to protect and ensure minority representation in the parliament.  Now we see the system has been abused to protect the Chinese PAP candidates.  It has defeated the original aim and purpose.  Free riders now include PAP new faces or defeated candidates in all races.  Another example of the failed constitutional amendment is the elected presidency.  President Tharman contested and won the presidency in an open election.  Restricted or closed elections do not work well.   Oh! PAP talks so loud about meritocracy. Mind you! The constitution can only be amended by a super majority or a one-party monopoly.  This is the current situation, do you want more checks and balances? 

  看看在野党新候选人的资历， PAP独揽人才的时代已经结束。 接着就是看一党独大会不会被终结。 您说呢！ 令人亮眼的工人党14位新候选人，应该给予一个赞！前进党和民主党也有两、三位新的优秀候选人。和以往的大选相比，PAP的新候选人，不但没有突出，反而有些根本就是塔顺风车。 集选区的目的，原本就是保护少数族群，确保他们有一定的代表。发展到今天，竟然沦落到连PAP华族候选人，那些不具资格者，也能够利用顺风车进入国会。这是开倒车，无形中影响整体PAP议员的素质。 以上两个发展趋势，证明PAP已经完全失去主导国家精英，垄断国家未来优秀接班人的大局。优秀候选人，愿意牺牲，贡献国家，为国效力，站在在野党，尤其是工人党，已经是一个无法抗拒的时代潮流。 选民应该认可这一新的政治格局，新的发展，并且给予大力支持。如果继续认为只有闪电才能保证新加坡的未来，那么，将是大错特错。因为，连李显龙也不得不承认，PAP没有，也不可能垄断所有的好建议，好政策。因此，制衡力量必须强化，让更多在野党议员进入国会。

  Committee after committee, Task force after task force; Basic problems still not solved, like cost of living, jobs, affordable housing, income gap, rich poor gap, … Trust the PAP anymore? Whenever Singapore faces challenges, the PAP government would quickly form a committee or task force.   But have they ever solved the basic problems?   No. Their first job is to save the economy, they say,  not the basic livelihood problems. When the economy recovers, they reward themselves first.  Look at the GLCs or government linked companies.  When they make profits with government financial support, who is the first to get the bonus?  No spirit of shared prosperity.  They even create five unnecessary mayors in the name of looking after your welfare.  When the economy grows, you feel your cake become smaller.  You complain, they just give your vouchers, discounts, coupons, …  while they continue to receive high compensation, bonus, stock opti...

  1元市场和18元意大利面 场面失控和优雅用餐的两级世界。 面对关税大战，PAP真的了解民间疾苦吗？ PAP有多脱节？它低估了1元购物的魅力，为什么会有这么多人挤爆市场，为的就是要省一点钱，然后，把省下的钱，用在他处。当然，也可以说成，他们喜欢热闹，就如老人收集纸皮，也是一种运动呀！ PAP的部长，议员却坐在西餐厅，优雅的享用意大利面，看着挤爆的市场，怀疑的问同伴，事情有这么严重吗？政府不是已经发购物券，现金，折扣，津贴，难道这么做还不够吗？还要做些什么？不明白？ 关税大战才刚开始，匆匆忙忙就设立委员会，应对巨变。这是表面功夫，还是有心协助人民？甚至，鼓动无助感，期望PAP成为救世主。捞取政治资本。从1985开始的经济委员会，到现在已经有好多个委员会，为何依然无法解决贫富悬殊，反而搞到现在出现挤爆1元市场的困境！ 根据吴作栋的瑞士生活标准，大多数新加坡人应该吃得起18元意大利面，低一点5元云吞面也消费得起。偏偏现在，关税大战还没有明朗，人民已经为1元米、货品而折腰。或许，PAP认为有人贪小便宜，要让PAP难堪。 李显龙说，要看候选人背后的党，那个党代表什么精神？1元市场和18元意大利面，让人看清PAP的候选人和这个党的价值，你还继续相信下去吗? 给予强而有力的委托吗？

  Effective Alternative Voices At Least 20 Opposition MPs needed to check the Government. The PM and Opposition Leader both enjoy 70% approval ratings.  In GE2015, Low Thia Khiang said it. Lee Hsien Loong responded and said quality matters.  In GE2025, do you think the quality of WP candidates is any lower than that of the PAP. No. If not in par, it is even better. So, why don’t you give WP a chance to be an effective check on government in parliament, outside parliament. Low said no reaction from the government when there was one WP MP in parliament based on his 20 years of experience. When WP had seven MPs, you saw changes. A small step towards change! When WP had ten MPs in 2020, Leader of the Opposition was created.  But it is still not enough. The PAP has a huge cabinet, many ministers, and even mayors, 10 + 2 (PSP) cannot form an effective check. WP needs to step up, and needs to have a strong regional base before becoming a nation wide political party.   ...

  Working for Singapore 为新加坡服务。投工人党一票，让工人党为国效劳，做出贡献。英文口号，直截了当，就是效劳新加坡。中文有点拗口，不过却指明票投工人党，工人党才能在国会发声，反映民情。 反观行动党的英文口号，长篇大论。讲太多，做太少。中文口号，看似工整，却似乎在自言自语，没有国没有家。自说自话似乎身不在其中，更多为个人为党卖命。 世界剧变 ，你为国人做了什么？设立委员会就真的能够解决问题吗？看管政府做好本分工作，不需要利用委员会来加分。 团队更新 ，是你家的事，实为一党独大铺路。黄循财还好意思说，神圣一票，选两代领导。何来更新？ 坚持初衷 ，看到你却是离初衷越来越远。看看李显扬怎么说行动党。连李光耀故居的初衷都无法完成。 共创辉煌 ，人民的蛋糕在哪里？几十年来，经济蛋糕越来越大，人民却分得越来越少。购物券，津贴，折扣，越发越多应对生活压力。 倒不如，“投工人党一票，为国效劳”。 投票是尽公民义务。 投工人党一票是为了制衡政府，为人民服务。

  How vulnerable is your constituency? Look at how PAP announces their confirmed candidates. Clear cut loss/win comes first. They first announced new faces contesting in Hougang, Aljunied nd Sengkang. You know lah! Likely PAP losers. They also announced old guards contesting Marsiling-Yew Tee, Ang Mo Kio, Nee Soon, Sambawang, Holland-Bukit Timah with new faces.  You know these are likely PAP winners.  Midway, they also confirmed their candidates for West-Coast-Jurong West and Tampines.  It seems the PAP is confident these two group constituencies are not so vulnerable.  Risk level is lower than East Coast or Marine Parade.    They also confirmed their candidates in Jalan Besar, Choa Chu Kang, Jurong East-Bukit Batoh, which are contested by small parties or non-team A of bigger opposition parties.  Based on the scheduled announcement of candidates in each constituency, West Coast and Tampines are quite safe for the PAP. Do you agree? ...

  过去五年做了什么？ 王瑞杰应不应该有第二次机会？ 从王瑞杰身上折射出来， 我们又看到行动党做了什么？ 王瑞杰空降东海岸集选区，以未来总理的态势，成功为行动党守土，选民给他一个机会，让他有所表现。结果呢！他的东海岸计划怎么样啦？总理梦也没有了！ 姑息东海岸计划，姑息王瑞杰的无所作为，是对民主的讽刺。明明有忠诚替代声音，明明有更好的选择，白白浪费五年；选民应该给改变一个机会。起来，加入改变，加速前进，铁锤换闪电。 你给王瑞杰多五年的机会，他还能做出什么贡献？ 他能提出替代方案吗？ 不能。 他还能继续担任副总理吗？这个机会应该留给第四代，而不是介于第三和第四代之间的王瑞杰。 他还能做出什么贡献？东海岸计划版本2？看不出来，他在未来政府中能够扮演什么角色？一个过气的部长，是时候让他退休了。

  Realistic GE2025? 10 30+ new faces Recycling candidate to Marine Parade General goes single PAP’s loss cutting strategy?   The PAP needs more than 30 new faces as they are preparing at least 10 losers in coming GE. Candidates fielding in blue zones have only 50% chances of winning based on the last GE result. So, you can only count 20+ potential winning candidates and they must field in ‘safe’ areas led by senior ministers.  You read about the confirmation of Lee Hsien Loong, Gan Kim Yong and other senior ministers as candidates.  The PAP is adopting a loss cutting strategy.  Lawrence Wong said there are no safe seats and expect strong competition. So, the ruling party is hoping to maintain no more losses: #Ng Chee Meng has a better chance of winning not in Sengkang but in a single seat. #Recycling a ‘retiring’ candidate to Marine Parade even if he loses will not affect the retirement or renewal plan. #Replacing an old candidate with a new face will not affect...