否极泰来 Piji Tailai

  Votes and Confidence Salary and Dignity  Same thinking in a different way? From salary to vote, new KPI.  You need a strong mandate, high vote share, then you can stand tall with confidence when facing foreign leaders. Few years back, Lim Wee Kiak compared salary and dignity.   “If the annual salary of the Minister of Information, Communication and Arts is only $500,000, it may pose some problems when he discuss policies with media CEOs who earn millions of dollars because they need not listen to the minister’s ideas and proposals, hence a reasonable payout will help to maintain abit of dignity.”  On 27 May, the Straits Times’s headline: Strong mandate from GE2025 boosts Singapore’s standing: PM Wong.   “Had he been re-elected with a reduced mandate, PM Wong said, perceptions of Singapore among foreign leaders would have been different.” Representing a country and representing a ministry depend very much on how high votes you get and how high salary ...

  大选的正能量？现象？趋势？(4) 许通美：通往两党制， 只有工人党候选人有机会胜选， 独立人士也不行。 许通美接受访问，新加坡正逐步走向两党制。选民已经认清，工人党与其他在野党不同，只有工人党候选人才有机会胜出。虽然和陈清木、淡马亚是好朋友，许通美认为，他们只有在工人党旗下，才可能获胜。这样说虽然不中听，但是，他还是要这样分析。他强调，如果要胜选，只能加入工人党。 这次大选，独立人士的表现比一些小党来得亮丽，这是否意味独立人士在将来有机会胜出？许通美不这么认为，竞选时需要庞大的后援、支持，个人如果没有政党的团队，很难胜出。以美国两党为例，其他候选人根本无法胜出。 因此，许通美预测，除了工人党，其他在野党没有前途。对于在野党来说，这样的预测，是不是一大打击？没有前途，只有参与，凑凑热闹。只有政治参与，让人觉得议会民主，但是，却无法参与讨论国事、方向、未来。 谈到行动党大胜，他认为一方面是黄循财个人的声望，另一方面归功于特朗普的贸易政策。这次大选，也没有出现负面政治，个人形象攻击等。候选人互相问好，大家为新加坡的利益，未来而竞争。新加坡政治也反对外来干涉，理性处理宗教、语言问题。

  Perhaps, NUS is telling you not to believe everything in the books.   Mencius said “Believing everything in the Book of Documents is worse than without that book.”   Perhaps, NUS is trying to express in a direct but wrong and respectful way. First, Yale-NUS College is no more and so is its value and teaching.   Singapore or the authority has assessed there is no demand or necessary for such a college.   So, it is not to believe in such a liberal teaching. Second, the western-style of education may be less relevant in the future world, be it theories in economics, politics, technology or public administration. If we follow these books blindly, perhaps it is better not to read them.    Third, the new cabinet is called a reshuffle . Despite having a strong mandate, Singapore now has an oversized cabinet which seems to be in transition. If you look at the cabinet as a book,  you may miss out on the development, changes later....

  大选的正能量？现象？趋势？(3) 负面新闻挡不住，行动党获强大委托。 同时，选民依然肯定工人党的制衡功能。 选前行动党和在野党都面对负面新闻。严格说，行动党比较严重，涉及贪污这个动摇国本的基石。大选的结果，不但，行动党没有受到影响，反而，得票增加。选民对工人党的支持也达到平均50%。 为什么，负面新闻对行动党和工人党都没有影响？是不是选民已经见怪不怪，生活还是要继续，管你什么负面新闻。还是，惯性的默认，不需要其他的政党，选民心目中，只关注这两个政党，不理小党，让它们连安柜金都输掉。 但是，还是不能不提： 选前正人君子，诚信至上； 选后酒肉美食，花边新闻不断。 新加坡选民又上宝贵的一课。可惜为时太晚。正能量又再被强大的危机感，不稳定，部长不可缺失，还有，行动党候选人是最可靠的美言所打动。如果没有媒体的炒作，完美的诚信形象，就无法制造出来。 选前满口仁义道德，把行动党部长、议长、议员的丑闻，利用在野党领袖的官司、国会失言，把大家都抹黑。之后，抬出部长不可丢失，只有他们能够为国服务，无需制衡，需要强大委托，最为可笑的说法就是投选有诚信的候选人。 什么叫诚信候选人？花边新闻算不算？如果是娱乐圈，早就闹得沸沸扬扬，风风雨雨，而且一闹就是好长一段时间；哪有来得快，去得快，似乎一切都回归平静，五年后，选民还会记得吗？ 进入人工智能的时代，如果依然不会发问，如何正确的发问，问出相关的问题，细想相关课题互动，提问能力，任务定义等，结果如何选择，。。。那么，我们很可能永远也无法走出行动党的思维范围。人工智能很可能让选民更加容易进入误区，做出短期利益，就如，人们常说的给你一个鸡腿，要回的是一只鸡。给予购物券、折扣，津贴，就能轻易满足。 人家只是聚餐，酒肉美食，只有一个外人，为何你偏偏想歪了，联想到正人君子，诚信至上。人家都说了，每天与不同的人见面，不能确保外人是不是干净，有无诚信。看来，人工智能帮不了，因为提问不正确，定义不清晰，答案也就无法准确反映。

  Singapore’s Defence needs a rethink after the air war between India and Pakistan.  So does the PAP in 2030?  Singapore claims to have the most advanced and sophisticated air defence system in the region.   So does India in South Asia.  India air force has acquired all the advanced air weaponry from Russia, USA, Israel and France.  While Pakistan relies on one and one coordinated air defence system from China. The recent air war is a wake-up call for the West.  Aircraft's superiority and advanced technology do not guarantee a win.   In fact, a less coordinated, less organised defence will not give us 1 +1 = 3 effect. Instead, it produces a result of less than 2. The whole defence mindset needs to change. Spending a huge amount of budget in buying the latest advanced system does not guarantee an effective defence system.        A weak opponent does not always lose out. Putting a future prime minister in the East Coast...

  大选的正能量？现象？趋势？(2) 不是两党制，而是1.5党制. 行动党在东部依然没有大胜。 如果行动党在东部，也像其他选区获得压倒性胜利，那就是一党制。可惜，还是幸运，PAP做不到，甚至赢得也不漂亮。总体平均得票，还输工人党一点点。 因此，有人形容，新加坡政治进入1.5党制。工人党只有半个制衡力量，离国会三分之一议席，还有一段距离。而这个半党的制衡力量，似乎也固定下来，想要歼灭，也不容易。其他两个主要反对党，前进党和民主党，在国会零代表，无法在1.5党制中，扮演任何角色。 从选民完全否决一些小党，让他们的候选人失去安柜金，经已证明，这些小党，完全不可能在国会制衡中，有所作为。边缘化的结果，只剩下参与选举，但是，又无法在三角、四角战中，发挥分散选票的功能。 这个现象，发展出来的趋势，就是小党需要整合，或者，自动消失。当然，小党可以继续名义上的生存，但是，在选民心目中，他们已经是可有可无，还不如独立人士。其他两个主要在野党，如果处理不好，善后工作不充足，也很可能步入小党的后尘。。。

  Step Up! A piece of nicely cut out cake!  Losing a few ministers… Losing a few retiring ministers… Enjoying a nicely cut out cake! Enjoying a nicely cut out cake with retiring ministers! Before that, step up and work harder.  

  大选的正能量？现象？趋势？(1) 马来票松动 PAP最后的靠山只剩新公民？ 三巴旺单选区和淡滨尼淡滨尼集选区，有着高比例的马来选民，这两个选区，行动党可以说是险胜。比行动党全国得票率的65%，少了很多。 人们观察到一个现象，或许是一个正能量，也或许是一个趋势。马来选民出现分水岭，他们也跟着主流选民的意愿，不再是行动党的铁票，存款机，不再一心一意向着PAP. 或许，他们已经不再相信行动党的甜言蜜语，低声下气的接受PAP为他们安排的一切。 行动党现在的铁票，存款机只剩下新公民。所以，他们会继续为新公民宣誓，在野党即使当选成了议员，也不可能出席宣誓典礼。颜金勇飞象过河到榜鹅集选区，虽然贵为副总理，如果没有新公民加持，得票率应该低于上面的两个选区。 在野党面对的困难还是山大，大数据下的选区划分，再加上新公民的定存机专用，志工人数不足，财力更不用说，这是一场不对称的竞选，行动党可以随时带风向，媒体操控，用不尽的资源。。。

  A political game not for unprepared, under qualified, few volunteers, less committed parties and candidates. This is an unfair game we all know.  This is a game where you need to put in more effort, energy, commitment than the PAP.   Even that there is no guarantee you will win. This is not for fun.  You must be as serious, as committed as Chee Soon Juan.   You must be part of the WP dream teams then you are able to win votes.  Unfortunately, with full commitment, they still lost.  Of course, you need a lot of volunteers who are willing to walk together with you, rain or shine.  Ground works are important and cover a big area, not only a single constituency.   The goal posts always change, SMC can easily disappear. It looks like a strong mandate.  Just like casinos, there are many losers.  They join in for fun without thinking about winning.  So, like casinos, they make a contribution to the state by losing deposits.  If...

 

  忽为短利，让一党独大继续下去。 和谐至上，不应牺牲中下层利益。 大局就是正常化一党独大吗？ 那一次大选，不是为了大局。那一次大选，行动党没有提出恐惧言论来误导选民。似乎，每一次都得手。乱大局是说，行动党失去几个部长吗？我们真的需要这么多部长、市长吗？只有无能的政党，才会害怕失去无用的部长。 不要为了购物券，现金，折扣等短利，而忽视长期的伤害 - 消费税。消费税犹如雪上加霜，在原本高物价的背景下，把通货膨胀推高。 什么叫和谐？行动党有没有公平把经济蛋糕，合理分配给国人，尤其是中下层。面对贫富悬殊，就证明行动党做不到，照顾不到中下层。 做生意的人，都知道竞争。生意人，时时刻刻都要面对不同的竞争。不可能为了和谐，就叫对方不要做生意，不要参与竞争。如果是这么做生意，就像行动党政府，一党独大，别人永远做不起，永远抬不起头，永远只能吃虾米。 什么是”正常“？根据行动党的说法，一党独大是正常。选区随意划分是正常，部长更正言论是正常，消费税、组屋都是正常负担得起，甚至犯错也是正常范围内，如身份证号码，易卡通，部长贪污，。。。 长期以来，中下层的牺牲被当成理所当然，被正常化，制度化。乱大局被说成破坏行动党的正常思维，治国方式。乱大局，就是要打破行动党的思维束缚，改变一党独大的局面，前进正常的政治格局。 为了小利、短利，不要搞乱行动党的大局，结果会是什么？新加坡南部，西部，北部将被闪电笼罩。而东北部也无法突围。新加坡政治，又在原点，继续在小红点徘徊不前。

  No losing ministers No Opposition breakthrough  And  Opposition wipe Out in the West  Status quo in the East The PAP's misleading logic is to confuse voters they cannot afford to lose any ministers, like the government cannot function and they have to fix the opposition in the parliament all the time. Maybe like Heng Swee Keat, then future prime minister, that Singapore could not lose.  If Lawrence Wong is in danger of losing, maybe the logic has more meaning!  This is not the case.  If you buy this PAP logic, the opposition will totally wipe out in the west, north where PSP and SDP are contesting. And WP in the east and northeast will have no breakthrough.  A wrong logic built on the super majority narrative of the PAP. Heng Swee Keat gone. Teo Chee Hean gone.  Ng Eng Heng gone.  So do Gan Kim Yong, Edwin Tong, Masagos and Ng Chee Meng. Voters need to choose between losing a few ministers or a balanced parliament.  The choice is ...