否极泰来 Piji Tailai

  Time is bad as seen in the Acknowledgement of Unemployed benefits, Inequality and Mobility. In some ways, the government has openly acknowledged the serious problems of inequality and mobility.  They have to solve them before the next election.  Whether they can succeed in convincing Singaporeans is a critical winning factor.  What Lawrence Wong said recently can be seen as the preparations for the coming general election.  Inequality, mobility and help to unemployed persons are to be included in the Forward Singapore which will then be used during the election campaign.     Any guessing of early elections is meaningless until the political project of Forward Singapore is completed.  To be honest, when you look at the handouts and possible unemployment benefits to be given out, time is bad and maybe worse than expected.   The PAP thinks Forward Singapore can do a second Tharman effect. Voters who believe in Forward Singapore will strongly give a  mandate to the PAP.  This is why the

  未来局势不明朗，不确定；金管局加强监管保险公司。保险回报、收入也会出现波动。 新加坡金融管理局，将对四家保险公司加强监管，就像监管银行那样严格监管它们的业务。英文媒体用 “大到不能倒” ，来形容这四家保险公司。因为，这些保险公司和银行一样，一旦倒闭，会对我国经济、民生造成严重影响。 从这点看，这显示 未来的经济走势，将会面对更大的风险，投资回报，收益，也将更加不确定和不明朗。 把保险公司也归入严格监管的范围，这似乎说明保险公司也不保险了。为了确保它们一旦面对困难，造成不良影响，金管局不得不出手强加管制。 金融体系不稳定，如雷曼兄弟倒闭，次贷风波，的确把美国和世界最大的保险公司AIG拉下，如果当时美国政府不出手相救，AIG保险公司将面临倒闭，对世界经济造成严重后果。 目前的国际经济、政治，都出现很多变数。我们已经不能利用过去的预算、估算来评论未来的保险回报，保单未必能够确保在售保书中答应过的回报率。我们很多保单都是根据欧美国家的表现，来评估回报。这些国家现在面临高利率，高失业率，甚至汇率不稳定的情形，这肯定会影响保单的回报。 金管局这么做，就是要避免血本无归的局面出现。如果真的出现倒闭问题，也能理出一个退出机制，确保保单的延续问题、善后问题。这个小动作，似乎不需要大惊小怪，但是，认真一想，所有与保险、保单有关的人，不能不重视。甚至，连公积金的退休回报也可能会受到影响。因为，不论储备还是公积金，投资地点也是这些国家和地区。 保险，银行，金融体系都是极为敏感的市场。一有什么风吹草动，发展速度和破坏性极高，或许，金管局已经预测到什么不利发展，而提前做好准备。就像前些时候，我们大量进口黄金一样。到底局势会如何发展，现在还很难看出什么，不过大家应该要有心理准备。未来几年，经济不明朗，局势不稳定将是一个常态，和以前有所不同。

  Higher Risk, Lower Return, Insurance Companies Are Under insured? What About Our Payouts? The recent announcement of four ‘too big to fail’ insurance companies in Singapore seems to suggest the insurance industry may face a difficult time ahead.  Most of our insurance money is invested in the West and managed by them and the highly possible downturn of their economies will result in higher risk and lower return. Higher capital requirements and more controls over them may prevent these insurance companies from going down.  But with reduced income and benefits distribution, less payouts from insurance products are possible.   With an increasing number of people, especially retirees, using insurance as annuity, or monthly payouts to supplement their CPF Life, if insurance companies cut their payouts, this will affect their ‘take home’ income.  For the same reason, the CPF Board can also use the same reason (higher risk, lower return) to reduce either interest rate or payouts to CPF memb

  生活费用高涨，不关总统的事；但是，他又如何团结国人，渡过难关？ 总统选举证明国人只是关心总统如何保障储备和高官的任命，有关政策和治理国家，那是政府的工作。选民在投票时，是否期待考虑，总统也能协助国人，减轻生活压力，在互相敬重的背景下，团结国人。 新总统一上任，政府就宣布一系列的涨价，从水，车资，拥车证，再到连续不断的普通市民的消费，从小贩中心，超市，咖啡店，我们不难发现，物价上涨的压力。这其实强化、加深贫富悬殊，社会不平等，我们倒要看看，总统如何在困难时期，团结国人，还是像欧巴马那样，空喊口号。 在三位总统候选人中，只有陈钦亮最冠心普通人的生活开支，但是，他却是最不得人心的一位。黄国松只字不提生活费，他只关心投资、储备。尚达曼三言两语带过生活费用的问题。因此，有百分之八十以上的选民，不认为总统可以改变生活，这是政府的工作。总统只能鼓励国人，乐观向上，勇于面对挑战。这么呼吁，真的能够团结国人吗？ 这是不是一种互相矛盾的悖论。又要马儿好，有要马儿不吃草。又想尚达曼这么聪明的人做总统，但是，又没有给他武器工具改善人民的生活。又或许，明哲保身，洁身自爱的尚达曼，就是依样画葫芦，无心无力的做着样板戏，就像他的前几任那样。 现在，唯一能够反映民情，改善国人生活的方方面面，就只剩下大选了。有人预测，大选很快就来了。但是，也有人，告诫人民行动党，不要把总统优势当成大选的红利。无论如何，大选迟早一定到来，你准备好了吗?

  If S. Iswaran were an Opposition MP,  What would you expect? And what drama? Lucky or unlucky, what would you expect if Iswaran were an alternative member of parliament? Would the drama that you are currently watching be any different? Is there any difference if you are white, blue or red? From the past examples, even if you are not a member of parliament, the People’s Action Party will not treat you lightly once you are in trouble.  In Chinese, the same people have different fates or put in a simple term life is unfair.

  李光耀100年，可否预料到儿子会被告。 或许，这是一种‘大公无私“的进步？ 也或许是一种退步。李光耀在位，担任领导人的时候，控告对手诽谤，是他的一项专长。有些人被告到破产，有些自我流放，沦落他乡。一听到有人被告，大家都替他担心，认为凶多吉少，后果不堪设想。 既是进步，也是退步。连李显扬也被人告，这显示李家人人都可以成为被告。这说明新加坡的法制是公平的，即使贵为李家公子，也可能被提告。这是进步。不过，这真的是新加坡人要的进步吗？ 那么，退步又作何解？这60年来，新加坡人从害怕内安法，红帽子，发展到害怕说话不小心，被人提告诽谤。 100年的李光耀，新加坡还是无法摆脱政治上的诽谤案。 不但，诽谤没有消失， 虚假新闻，更正指示 却成了新的潮流、新手段。 诽谤作为政治手段，它的继续存在，并且还与时并进，发扬光大，我们应该定义它为进步还是退步。难道，我们没有更好的选择吗？如果更正指示是最新，更好的选择，那么，它到底是进步还是退步？还是，它化身成为温和版的诽谤工具，利用花蝴蝶版的政府立场、声明来压制政府不想让人看到的另一面。 进步的同时，也在退步？李光耀100年，他的精神、手段，作风，要如何融合未来的新加坡。60年前的奋斗、艰辛岁月，年轻一代会如何看待李光耀的相关性，适用性，以及它的实用性？

  Win 100%, Lose 85.71%. Who really wins in the case of a shophouse lawsuit?  A win is not a win. A loss is not a loss.  There is no winner who takes all the benefits.  When reading news, we need to compare and know the details. The headlines can be misleading.   In the case of ex-MP Chiang Hai Ding’s shophouse lawsuit, news reports may give you a confusing answer.  If you read Today, the headline seems to suggest Chiang wins. The Straits Times gave another picture, winning the case may not necessarily be the final winner.  Same for 8world and Zaobao.  The key is the benefit distribution of the shophouse.  The win means the property 100% belongs to Chiang.  However, due to contributions from Chiang’s son and daughter in law, 85.71% of the benefit belonged to his son.  This has to be considered in the divorce proceeds between son and daughter in law. 100% win is really not a 100% win.  For the loser, it is also not a 100% loss.  In fact, 85.71% of the shophouse’s benefits is subject to

  哈莉玛六年 无言的结局 哈莉玛在过去六年，在不干涉政府运作的背景下，留给国人什么印象？一说是国人团结的象征。一说管好储备金。不论什么，好像缺漏了什么？ 无言的结局，似乎更加适当。不然，国人为什么对尚达曼高票中选，发出黄梨般的欢呼。似乎找到了光辉，恢复了以往选贤领导国家的惯例。 这六年，其实不是无言，而是虚假陈述太多，政府需要不断做出更正指示。即使在哈莉玛任期的最后一天，更正指示，还是没有停止。或许，这又是另一个无言的结局，还是另一种结局？

  The Beautiful Misunderstanding from India: President replaces Prime Minister Our Elected Presidency not only confuse ourself, now it also confuses the Indians. News media is supposed to have firsthand knowledge about politics, international political structure.  However, India Today also made a mistake. “Very few Singaporeans know how it works. My concern has always been that if a public institution is not easily understood by ordinary people… It would not function that well,”   —-- George Yeo   There are deeper meanings of the misunderstanding.  India Today had said sorry for the mistake.  They have failed to understand that both India and Singapore were former British colonies and practise parliamentary systems. However, the confusion will continue. Perhaps, this is the purpose of the designer.

  人才是华为的储备。 钱财是新加坡的储备。 人才还是钱财重要？ 两者皆有，更加可怕？ 总统竞选谈钱财，不谈人才。给人的感觉，钱是万能，有钱就有才，高薪就能吸引人才。 这和以前，依靠人才创造钱财不一样，我们现在有钱了，害怕别人偷走我们的乳酪。 高谈阔论，如何保护钱财储备，却没有大声疾呼如何保护、培养本地人才。一个留不住人才的地方，如何保护好储备钱财，很可能乳酪被偷走了，都不知道。而偷走乳酪的人，各种可能性皆有。 其实，台积电的储备应该也是人才。而且，一到了美国，好像就成了廉价劳工。因为太过勤劳，还被美国人怨声载道，动不动就搬出劳工福利、劳动法令来加以对付、限制。人才储备最怕管理层出现 决策错误 。好好的人才最后演变成英雄无用武之地。做不到天时地利人和，只能以失败告终。出走的出走，错置的错置，变得生产力大不如前，市场和盈利都一一流失。甚至，出现前所未有的危机。 钱财储备也面对同样的问题。 投资失误，钱的流失，恐怕比人才流失更加快，更加彻底。 人才除了公司拥有外，也是自己的，除非死亡，不然一辈子都跟着你。钱财外汇则是看不到，查不到，吃不到，怎样流失，即使你是人才，也未必知道，钱是如何流失。 外汇是国际性的。人才也是国际性。人才大受欢迎，世界各地欢迎人才比钱财还来得高。 人才也是受人嫉妒的 。人才多，创造力就高，解决问题的能力也比人高。有些地方自认有钱，人才就自然会来。但是，却未必留得住人才，高薪养廉可能适合尚达曼，但是，放在其他部长身上，未必如此。 新加坡从人才创造钱财，一代两代人的脑力，努力，辛勤奋斗，才制造了今天的钱财、外汇储备。发展到现在，却要用钱财留住人才，而人才却把新加坡当成跳板？酒店？

  Views Of Losers Are Still Important: Good Opposition, Cost Of Living etc Majority of the voters voted for no surprise, status quo.  It is important that more attention should be given to the views of the losers.  Otherwise, we are living in the illusion that everyday is a good day and our strong reserves will ensure a good life and meet all future challenges.  Good opposition makes good government.  Only 16% of voters view this as correct.  These voters also believe in competition.  Oh! cost of living, affordable housing and elderly care only received 14% support.  Are these really not an issue? Not important at all? The winner can just ignore these callings. 70% said they did not want surprises, no improvement is needed.  Voting for a perfect man, all problems will be solved.   Really?     Wait a minute!  Respect for all means not only the 70%, the views of the 30% must also be equally respected.  Otherwise, how to unite the people, building a stronger Singapore Inc?    For those wh

  高人气总统相对不光彩不孝子总理， 反而意外形成两个权力中心？ 尚达曼高票中选，显示选民对他的信任，相信他能够有所为。相对于总理，一个被弟妹称为不光彩，不孝子的总理，在道德上，不能不说，新加坡人对于总统和总理有着不一样的期待。 这种期待，当然也有可能落空 。就像以往的所谓民选总统那样，没有作为，没有亮眼的地方。除了，王鼎昌的亲民、储备询问外，过去的民选总统，都是没有作为的人。直接说，就是白领薪金，不做事，新加坡人对于他们所作所为，极为失望。 尚达曼是否也跟其他历任总统一样，没有发挥新加坡人心目中，想要他扮演的角色？发挥功用，不是跟政府对着干，而是积极的协助国人，反映民情，融合族群的了解，合作共赢，善用储备和任命适当人选出任要职。 以尚达曼的聪明才智，可能会选择一些擦边球。尤其是，国人关心，而又影响国际声誉的事情。当然，擦边球的玩法，自然而然在宪法规定之内。一个最明显的例子，就是超龄检察总长，总统有权拒绝任命或延长超龄高官的任命。 当然，胆子再大一点，擦边球在玩的美一点，甚至可以设立调查委员会，调查黑白屋，部长涉及贪污案，10亿元（上升到18亿）洗钱案等，这些都影响新加坡的国际声誉，为了维护新加坡在国内外的清廉形象，进行独立调查有其必要性。 一个强势，高人气的总统，在气势，信任和支持度上面，已经给道德上有瑕疵的总理带来了预想不到的压力。 新加坡人相信总统高于总理，这也是第一次出现这种怪现象 。以往总统几乎就是一个花瓶，而新加坡人不希望尚达曼成为一个花瓶，而要求他有所作为。这是作为总统的尚达曼，需要摸索，需要与众不同的地方。

  Lee Hsien Loong must set a retirement date  after Tharman received a strong mandate. No more excuses, no more unclear date of succession plan, Lee Hsien Loong must give a clear date of his retirement to Singaporeans.   After the PAP-endorsed Tharman obtained a strong mandate, the reserve and appointments of key officials are in a safe hand. The uncertainty is gone. Both keys are in the hands of the PAP.   Lawrence Wong has been declared the successor to Lee Hsien Loong.  We now have an intelligent and capable president, much smarter, talented, and more wise than the prime minister.   It is time Singapore enters a new post-Lee era.  Let's make Lee Kuay Yew and Lee Hsien Loong as history.   The outside world is changing so does the internal social, economic and political structure.      A president helps to make us less worry, more certainty in ‘respect for all’.  We should now consider that good opposition makes good government.  This will provide more trust and hope for a better

  只求 信任 ，不求 希望 。 前景未明，但要乐观面对。似乎黄梨变成唯一的寄托，信任战胜一切。只要信任总统，问题就可迎刃而解。乐观的面对生活的各种问题，黄梨如何带头鼓励人民，勇敢、开朗的活下去？黄梨不能改变政策，只能团结国人，相互敬重，因此，不会带来新希望。 没有惊奇，不求改变，这是旧希望，不是新希望。既得利益者的利益没有被破坏，可能还受到加强。的确，选民也是抱着守旧的心，完成一颗不变的心。这是不是白衣人的最后一张王牌，之后还有黄梨出炉吗？ 1 3 8 8 一生发发，还是，回光返照。信任一生发发，希望这是回光返照，没有王牌，没有黄梨，如何继续造神？造神的天时地利人和，会再来吗？

  Trust and hope   I was taking a train to Chinatown last Saturday. I didn't know why there was no announcement or information about the next train station. It was quiet. Commuters just moved in and out. Some didn’t notice it. They are just used to the system, even though there is no announcement. Never mind!   We trust the MRT system. We believe we will get to our destinations. But we don’t want to make guesses and check the locations every time the train stops. Seeing is believing! Listening too.    We hope we can have advanced knowledge and informed information. Guessing and checking are not necessary if certainty is provided to commuters.   The MRT system is still running smoothly. So many people trust they will get to their final destinations. We expect that every day we will reach the right station; occasionally, guessing and checking are needed. The hope of informational certainty is secondary.   Good luck! Trust and hope come together to bring you 1388 prosperity, Huat Ah,