否极泰来 Piji Tailai

  昨日苏维埃，今日美利坚。 精英们与群众脱节，人民失去自信心，老人政治。。 历史学者弗格森爵士（Naill Feguson）指出，从历史的发展看，今天的美国，有着类似当年苏联衰败解体的特征。这包括老人政治，政治精英不了解人民，而美国人本身越来越失去自信心等。 因为绝望而死亡，在苏联人们酗酒，吸烟，绝望死亡。在美国，同样的情形，吸毒，无家可归，绝望死亡。苏联后期，人均寿命减少。美国也是如此，冠病加上绝望自杀，寿命不增加，反而减少。当普通人在绝望中，精英们没有对策，活在自己的舒服圈。 弗格森也指出，美国媒体、经济、政治捐款都是掌握在精英手中。这些精英多数是民主党人。难怪，美国这次的选举，人们形容是精英和穷人的战争，怪就怪在特朗普竟然是穷人的代表。  弗格森只谈到美国的内部问题，其实，和苏联一样，对于外部的发展，也做出错误的判断。几十年来，美国的外交政策，累积到了拜登身上，就出现各种败象，从阿富汗、乌克兰、中东，再到各种经济、贸易、金融制裁。美国的朋友越来越少，敌人却越来越多。 昨日苏维埃，今日美利坚；明天是谁？其实，在欧洲，我们也看到类似情形，日本有吗？我们有吗？

  Hung Parliament? Not likely in Singapore. But it is getting more common now. Do not expect a hung parliament in Singapore in the coming GE. The PAP is expected to get less votes, perhaps also less seats.  But it will still hold a comfortable majority.  This year, at least four parliamentary or legislative elections in the world ended in a hung situation. The latest was Japan where the LDP and partner combined lost their simple majority. In India, Modi’s BJP as a single party lost her simple majority. Luckily, with the help of junior partners, Modi claimed victory as he obtained a simple majority.      White in France and Taiwan, one single party had a simple majority.  These two places have presidents but their parliaments are still important institutions for checks and balances. In the 2023 Thai general election, no single party achieved a simple majority.  In the 2022 Malaysia general election, a hung parliament was declared. Both countries needed to find time and form alliances to