否极泰来 Piji Tailai

  Hung Parliament? Not likely in Singapore. But it is getting more common now. Do not expect a hung parliament in Singapore in the coming GE. The PAP is expected to get less votes, perhaps also less seats.  But it will still hold a comfortable majority.  This year, at least four parliamentary or legislative elections in the world ended in a hung situation. The latest was Japan where the LDP and partner combined lost their simple majority. In India, Modi’s BJP as a single party lost her simple majority. Luckily, with the help of junior partners, Modi claimed victory as he obtained a simple majority.      White in France and Taiwan, one single party had a simple majority.  These two places have presidents but their parliaments are still important institutions for checks and balances. In the 2023 Thai general election, no single party achieved a simple majority.  In the 2022 Malaysia general election, a hung parliament was declared. Both countries needed to find time and form alliances to

  拥车证增加的另一种解读： 讨好选民，还是经济不好？ 拥车证价格太高，因此需要机制来稳定一下。增加拥车证，提高供应量，当然，有助稳定价格。这个稳定，是稳定在现有的高价位，还是，拉低价格，让中下层爱车人士，也能一圆拥车梦？ 市场价格的波动，有时很难掌控。不过，作为庄家，政府是比较容易掌控局面。一般的推理，提高供应量，价格应该下来。选择在明年二月，是不是要为大选作准备？中下层在获得比较便宜的拥车证后，是否会感恩政府，做出正确的决定？ 美国总统选举过后，明年的经济会好转吗？为什么选择年头？制造明天会更好？如果，现在就增加拥车证数量，到了年中、年底就失效了。种种迹象显示，明年的经济更加难预测，更加不稳定，不像拥车证，政府可以完全掌控。 明年经济不好，拥车证却增加，考虑到年头的相对乐观，花红、津贴、加薪和新年气氛，人们更加乐意买车。到了年底，很可能就是另一个景观。但是，庄家还是胜利者，年底选举已过，一部分中下层虽然拥车梦达到，但是，负担的现实问题依然在。 小心！

  From Dishonorable Son to Unfilial Son, Sadly, Lee Kuan Yew was not able to advise them.   Lee Kuan Yew was so smart, so was his wife.  Both planned the future of their three children.  Sadly, they are not able to give any advice any more. The so-called dishonrable son is named by his brother and sister. The so-called unfilial son is labelled by non-family members. Singaporeans are divided depending on which side you stand.  One son has been in politics his whole life.  The other is a newbie in politics and has never shown political interest in the past.  But he is the only executor of Lee Kuan Yew’s will.  A will can mean a lot in a Chinese family, especially for a dynasty succession.     The irony is there is no more Lee Kuan Yew and the founding fathers of Singapore.  Who can advise Singapore on the best solution for the “House” and beyond?  Maybe the fate of Singapore will also be affected.  Don’t play play.

  李显扬的选择代表什么？ 坚定李光耀精神？对体制的反抗？无病呻吟的哀嚎？ 作为李光耀遗属唯一执行人，李显扬坚定的认为，他必须履行李光耀的原则、遗属的精神，把故居拆除。他的坚持，或者固执，似乎是李家的传统。李光耀固执，他的三个孩子也一样固执，坚持自己的理念。 因此，显扬选择作为一个政治难民。他的选择，是不是针对新加坡现有体制的无力反抗？他认为他被打压，无法有效的执行遗属的内容和精神。以西方的民主标准，新加坡是一个半民主半专制半自由的地方，因此，流亡英国，就像以前被政府打压的人一样，得以呼吸自由空气。 新加坡人是否会以，以前政府对待不同意见人士的态度，看显扬。新加坡人已经习惯，目前的政治安排，甚至，有些人会认为他是无病呻吟。李光耀生前，认为显扬擅长金融投资，而显龙则偏向政治。为何一个金融人士，却对政治有那么固执的坚持？ 李光耀和先辈们，一直很努力坚持一些原则和精神，如：反贪，态度认真，努力不求回报；新加坡才得以走到今天。李家第二代，却出现两种不同的坚持理念，固执的守护。或许，他们都应该退出，而让新的领导班子，做出最有利于新加坡的决定。

  Today’s PAP is different from the past. No more dominant. Today’s Lee family is different from the past. New political refugee. Today’s HDB is different from the past. No more cheap. Today’s NTUC Income is different from the past. No more co-operative. Today’s taxtion is different from the past. No more estate duty but GST. Today’s childbirth is different from the past. No more replacement. Today’s medical care is different from the past. Can die but cannot become sick. Today’s wage is different from the past. Bigger and bigger rich-poor gap. Today’s salary for ministers is different from the past. Highest in the world.

  来自资深外交官的震惊，和来自年轻一代华文拿A的震惊。 不久前，李光耀公共政策学院主办了一个思想交流会，名为“历史末端的中国震惊/惊讶”，意思是说，历史走到今天，中国带给世界，尤其是新加坡什么震惊，或许，也可以说怎样的休克？ 看完整个视频，让人震惊的不是主讲人提出的什么震惊故事，而是资深外交官依据西方思维，给出震惊和未来预测让人震惊。这和马凯硕的看法有着本质上的不同。马凯硕的说法，接近李显龙在通商中国论坛的发言。 新加坡有些资深外交官，似乎还活在上个世纪，他们习惯在西方思维逻辑下，考虑东西方关系，虽然看到发展中国家，中国正在发展，但是，却拒绝深入了解例如：西藏问题。就像有位出席者问，为什么中国官员，在外不说英语?主观认为，人家不会说英语。 新加坡的震惊问题，不单是老一辈外交人员欠缺多元多文化思考，连年轻一辈也是如此。他们无形中，自我形成一种脱钩，只想在自己的舒服圈中，过着小确幸的日子。就像一位新闻工作者说，虽然华文拿到A, 但是却无法顺利用华语表达。他还说，这不是他一个人的问题，他的同伴也是如此。 我们谈了这么多通商中国，到头来，如何通？