否极泰来 Piji Tailai

  Lee Hsien Loong lost 2 GRCs. How about Lawrence Wong, sooner or later? In the 20 years of Lee Hsien Loong Administration, the PAP lost 2 GRCs.  2011 in Aljunied GRC. 2020 in SengKang GRC.    Lawrence Wong will have his first test in GE 2025.  Wong has acknowledged that the PAP is no longer a dominant party.  So, will he lose another GRC or more? Singaporeans will decide whether losing GRC is at an increasing or decreasing speed.  How soon, faster or slower than Lee Hsien Loong? In the US, Lee claimed that there is high trust between Singapore society and the PAP government.   If this is true, Lawrence Wong may even gain back a GRC rather than losing another GRC.  Lee said Singapore is quite unusual.  Other countries may not easily duplicate the same.  From the economic results and performance, yes. But it is also unusual in its political reforms, GRC, NMP, NCMP, FORMA, constitutional amendments, etc.           The PAP is lucky that her political reforms also unusually work very well

  似曾相识燕归来， 说谎、骗子、罪犯、破坏者。。。 特朗普如何取得最后胜利？ 一人一票让特朗普中选，而非捐款、媒体、经济垄断。 特朗普高票中选美国总统，靠的是一人一票的选举人票制度。虽然不是每个美国选民都前往投票，但是，有超过60%的人投票，而特朗普以绝对优势胜选。 这对一向以为，只要控制媒体，霸占主场优势，政治献金多，就能轻易取得胜利的政党，是一个当头一棒。民主党几乎控制所有的美国媒体，捐款遥遥领先对手，也掌控主流经济。过去几十年，美国已经形成蓝大于红的政治格局。而特朗普也不是主流思维的政治人物。 选举通常都会利用候选人的人格，攻击对方，通过控制媒体和网络，大事宣传，抹黑、污名，官司等，都是惯用的手段。那么，特朗普如何突围，取得胜利。当然，一方面是一个老人的斗争。 另一方面，对手做得太烂，候选人犹如草包一样，硬要支持者，投不下，也要投。再加上，政绩不加，国内国外，差强人意。美国人的自信心，自豪感，满足感，样样都没了。因此，只好在两个烂苹果中，选出一个比较满意的，即使这个人有着狂人、骗人、犯罪的记录。疯子好过一个笨蛋？

  Think Positively about Trump's second term. The World has changed a lot over the past 8 years. Not sure about American internal politics. The elites are still fighting each other. And the infrastructure, debt and interest payments, social divide, rich-poor divide are hard to solve.  American politics and society have not changed much over the 8 years. Will it experience revolution-type of change during Trump’s second term?  Not likely.  Even if Elon Musk manages to make the Administration more efficient, the political culture will remain the same.     Outside the USA, the world looks positive despite potential trade war.  In the past 8 years, BRICS’s GDP is now bigger than that of G7. Developing countries will have bigger say in world politics and trade.  American-type economic development is not the only option.   The world has also learned and known a lot about Trump in his first term. It is either the world making the same mistakes or Trump repeating his mistakes.  It is very

  昨日苏维埃，今日美利坚。 精英们与群众脱节，人民失去自信心，老人政治。。 历史学者弗格森爵士（Naill Feguson）指出，从历史的发展看，今天的美国，有着类似当年苏联衰败解体的特征。这包括老人政治，政治精英不了解人民，而美国人本身越来越失去自信心等。 因为绝望而死亡，在苏联人们酗酒，吸烟，绝望死亡。在美国，同样的情形，吸毒，无家可归，绝望死亡。苏联后期，人均寿命减少。美国也是如此，冠病加上绝望自杀，寿命不增加，反而减少。当普通人在绝望中，精英们没有对策，活在自己的舒服圈。 弗格森也指出，美国媒体、经济、政治捐款都是掌握在精英手中。这些精英多数是民主党人。难怪，美国这次的选举，人们形容是精英和穷人的战争，怪就怪在特朗普竟然是穷人的代表。  弗格森只谈到美国的内部问题，其实，和苏联一样，对于外部的发展，也做出错误的判断。几十年来，美国的外交政策，累积到了拜登身上，就出现各种败象，从阿富汗、乌克兰、中东，再到各种经济、贸易、金融制裁。美国的朋友越来越少，敌人却越来越多。 昨日苏维埃，今日美利坚；明天是谁？其实，在欧洲，我们也看到类似情形，日本有吗？我们有吗？

  Hung Parliament? Not likely in Singapore. But it is getting more common now. Do not expect a hung parliament in Singapore in the coming GE. The PAP is expected to get less votes, perhaps also less seats.  But it will still hold a comfortable majority.  This year, at least four parliamentary or legislative elections in the world ended in a hung situation. The latest was Japan where the LDP and partner combined lost their simple majority. In India, Modi’s BJP as a single party lost her simple majority. Luckily, with the help of junior partners, Modi claimed victory as he obtained a simple majority.      White in France and Taiwan, one single party had a simple majority.  These two places have presidents but their parliaments are still important institutions for checks and balances. In the 2023 Thai general election, no single party achieved a simple majority.  In the 2022 Malaysia general election, a hung parliament was declared. Both countries needed to find time and form alliances to

  拥车证增加的另一种解读： 讨好选民，还是经济不好？ 拥车证价格太高，因此需要机制来稳定一下。增加拥车证，提高供应量，当然，有助稳定价格。这个稳定，是稳定在现有的高价位，还是，拉低价格，让中下层爱车人士，也能一圆拥车梦？ 市场价格的波动，有时很难掌控。不过，作为庄家，政府是比较容易掌控局面。一般的推理，提高供应量，价格应该下来。选择在明年二月，是不是要为大选作准备？中下层在获得比较便宜的拥车证后，是否会感恩政府，做出正确的决定？ 美国总统选举过后，明年的经济会好转吗？为什么选择年头？制造明天会更好？如果，现在就增加拥车证数量，到了年中、年底就失效了。种种迹象显示，明年的经济更加难预测，更加不稳定，不像拥车证，政府可以完全掌控。 明年经济不好，拥车证却增加，考虑到年头的相对乐观，花红、津贴、加薪和新年气氛，人们更加乐意买车。到了年底，很可能就是另一个景观。但是，庄家还是胜利者，年底选举已过，一部分中下层虽然拥车梦达到，但是，负担的现实问题依然在。 小心！